Exploring the Goals to Points Ratio in Premier League - What It Reveals About Team Efficiency

For as long as league football has existed, points have always meant prizes and although the collection of these has been the truest metric in terms of annual success, points alone do not tell the full story.

Because at its most basic form, football matches need goals to find a winner and the more that are won, the greater chance that progress up the table continues. While with goals in mind, that is going to be the topic of our latest data-driven article for consideration as to how to approach your bets with bookmakers.

With goals scored or goal difference being a constant talking point when discussing the league tables and consideration for many football tipsters, there is one factor that rarely gets a mention and although it has no overall bearing on positions up and down the ladder, it is still worth highlighting all the same.

If only because, we can then start to get a better idea of a team’s effectiveness in front of goal and to do that, we can look at the goals to points ratio of each Premier League outfit – a metric that is simple as dividing the former over the latter.

A simple equation but a whole lot of complex findings to follow and by carrying out this calculation, we can now look at the current goals to points ratio at the end of the 2024/25 season

One thing that first springs to mind here, is that there is a very strong correlation between one goal and one point and when you consider that the average goals per game for this season is 2.93 (three points for a win = three goals per game) this insight stands to reason.

This means we now also have a benchmark to work towards and if a ratio of 1.00 is the line in the sand, we can highlight which of the current Premier League crops operate above or below this particular number.

Here we will see that of the teams that finished in the top six of the table, three finished with a ratio of 1.00 or more. The trio of teams that did not hit this benchmark were Arsenal, Chelsea and Aston Villa but not reaching this certain ratio did not stop them gaining European football for next season.

Of course, the variance away from 1.00 is not substantial in terms of the top six (Arsenal and Chelsea just 0.07 off and Villa 0.12) but it is still interesting to see that points are accrued at a slightly faster rate than they are goals. This means the volume of goals is not necessarily the difference-maker.

When we look at the bottom end of the Premier League table, it is interesting to see that the goals to points ratio of of the seven lowest-finishing teams all ended with a ratio of more than 1.00 – something that can be explained by goals being slightly easier to find then points and especially if you are a team in the bottom three. 

SOME ADDITIONAL CONTEXT

Even though the calculation of goals to points will offer some significant insight, listing these in the current order of the Premier League table will muddy the picture slightly and the best way to clear this up, is to rank the ratios from highest to lowest.

In addition to this, we could also offer a hypothesis: “Do clubs towards the top of the Premier League, have the highest goals to points ratio?”

This means if we aim to answer the above hypothesis, you can see that is clearly not the case and the three of the four teams with the highest ratios also find themselves preparing for life in the EFL Championship’s 2025/26 edition.

Again, this can be explained by teams scoring a goal when they lose or less than three goals when they win. Whatever they are doing in terms of scoring output, it is not at the same pace as their collection of points.

While it must also be noted that Tottenham have to be the outlier in all of this. Ange Postecoglou may have finally ended Spurs' trophy drought but the league form that he oversaw was nothing short of abysmal. 22 defeats but strangely plenty of league goals as they limped to a 17th place finish.

64 to be exact and with that only managing to record 38 points across the 2024/25 season - it meant Spurs recorded a ratio of 1.68 points per goal earned. 

You need to go to twelvth in the list to find champions Liverpool, with a goals to points ratio of 1.02 and as far as debut seasons go at the managerial helm, Arne Slot's transition to the Premier League has proved to be rather seamless as they almost recorded a perfect balance between goals and points. 

But what about a club that found equlibrium in terms of goals and point ratio? The answer to that would be Fulham and with a goal to point ratio of exactly 1.00, it will come as no surprise that the Cottagers also finished mid-table in 11th as this golden ratio is the mirror of being consistent at being inconsistent. 

ON THE FLIPSIDE

Whil there is also the ideal opportunity to ask ourselves another hypothesis: “Do clubs towards the top of the Premier League have the lowest goals-against to point ratio?”

Here if we were to answer the second hypothesis, it is clear to see that defence arguably has more value than attack and the top four finishing teams in the Premier League, also find themsleves in the top the four lowest goals-against to points ratios this season.

Not only that but the bottom three teams in the 2024/25 table, also have the highest goals against to points ratio. Each of the trio have a ratio of 3.20 or more and that is always a number that indicates a visit to the second tier, while things are even worse when you look at Southampton and their eye-watering ratio of 7.17.

Another thing to consider here is that there is a far greater correlation between the current league position and goals against ratio rank. Here we can see that the top seven teams occupy the top seven - even if the order does not match that of the league table, it does highlight a strong correlation between a strong defence and a high league finish. 

Therefore, we can say with confidence, that a strong defence will go a long way to helping clubs move up the table and of course, the opposite can be said for those outfits that have been rather porous at the back.

Not to mention, there is a far greater variance in the actual ratios themselves and when looking at goals scored above. the benchmark was either side of 1.00. Now though, we can see that if you are not in the top ten, you have an average of more than two goals against per point.

How can we explain this? Quite simply actually and if you consider that teams outside the top ten will lose more often than those inside it, you must always concede at least one goal before you are denied victory.

CONCLUSION

Although goals have an incredible amount of value every week, a solid defence will push you toward winning the league title. While if you concede too many, relegation will be ready to stare you in the face.

There may be little in the way of correlation when it comes to goals versus points, but the same cannot be said for goals against and with defence being the best form of attack at times, it is also a shortcut to success at the end of the season.