Betting on bookings; the card markets & the impact of the referee

Betting on bookings

We can all now place Red and Yellow Cards bets in football matches worldwide, these disciplinary markets have exploded in recent years especially in the ever growing request a bet and bet builder options. 

The best betting sites  have expanded their footballing betting pages with these "smaller" markets becoming mainstream. 

We are spoilt for choice on bookings and sending offs with the ability to bet both pre match and in play as well as utilising the cash out option.  

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Card betting can be a profitable strategy as long as you do your football bookings research: 

• Analyse Referee stats
• Research teams disciplinary record
• Check individuals disciplinary record
• Check how each team and their manager will approach the game
• Is one team far superior to another
• Is the game a derby
• Has there been pre match "trash talk"
• Is there a history of bad blood between the sides. 
• Are there player match ups that may ignite tension
• How will the game pan out in each half
• Note the substitutes
• What is the mood of the crowd
• What are the weather conditions/state of the playing surface.

Booking Markets Available

You will have the best choice of booking markets from the best football betting sites,the bigger bookies have the most resources meaning they can offer more options.

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Betting odds are offered on individual outcomes such as over/under a certain amount of cards, both teams to receive a card or a named team to rack up 2 + cards. 

The bookies also use Booking Points in individual matches with points accumulated by how many red and yellow cards are shown in a game, rather than how many cards are shown a game. 

Bookmakers give 10 points for one yellow card and 25 booking points for a red card. 

A red card issued after two yellows is worth 35 points, not 45 booking points as you may have initially thought. 

Previously we had just red cards and a spread of booking points to bet on with most bookmakers, but these days you can find a whole host of card markets to bet on, including the very obscure. 

Most popular are:  

1. Over or under cards

2. Team booking points

3. Card bands

4. Named player to be carded

5. The first player to be carded

6.Time of the first player to be carded

7. The number of cards each half

8. The total number of cards

9. Exact number of cards

10. Handicap Cards

11. Both teams to receive a card

12. Team to be carded

1. Over or Under

You must predict whether the total points for yellow and red cards in a selected match will be over or under a bookmaker's line.

Let's say you think the Arsenal v Tottenham game will be a fiery affair (it usually is). 

You place a bet on OVER 60.5 booking points at 7/4. 

Three players are booked for Arsenal and four for Tottenham

That is seven bookings in the game, giving a total of 70 points

You win the bet. 

Dan Kanolik // shutterstock You bet UNDER 40.5 booking points at 5/4 on a game at the end of the season between Ipswich and Southampton; both are mid-table and have nothing to play for. 

It is a tepid 0-0 with few chances and only two players are booked. 

Two bookings equals 20 points. 

You win the bet. 

2. Team booking points

With team booking points, you bet how many red and yellow cards an individual team will accumulate in the game. 

3. Card bands

The bookmakers will offer differing odds on booking points falling in a particular number band on an individual game, e.g., 10-20, 21-40, 41-60. 

4. Named player to be carded

I find this market to be particularly enjoyable.  

The player to be carded market at any time is a bet that lasts for the whole 90 minutes, or as long as your chosen player stays on the pitch. 

The players shortest in the betting tend to be around Evens (2.0) to be carded. 

5.The first player to be carded

Is there a hot head on the pitch or a player that has already accumulated a lot of yellow cards of the season? The favourite in the first to be carded market usually sits at around 10/1. 

6. Time of the first player to be carded

Need to analyse what kind of game it will be, noting which players are in the starting eleven.

7. The number of cards each half

More cards are issued by referees in the second half, as players tire, or try to fight back in the game

8. The total number of cards.

A market where the odds are more generous, but historical stats should be your guide

9. Exact number of cards

Obviously tricky but the odds reflect this. 

10. Handicap Cards

Handicap cards is where you bet on a team to either receive more or less cards than their opponents taking into account the handicap, this can work if one team regularly receives fewest or /most cards.in matches.

11. Both teams to receive a card

Does the game look competitive, most games have at least one booking, look to the top teams who have received the most bookings so far in the season. 

12. Team to be carded

A specific team to receive a card, again check the teams who always have a player booked, the teams leading the table seem to take extra care NOT to receive cards.

Special Card Bets

A few bookmakers offer specials on card markets in the big games. 

They range from certain players to be sent off to doubles and trebles of players to be carded. 

I quite like a little wager on the specific players to be red-carded markets.

Often the bookmakers select the players that will be under the spotlight, for example:Sergio Ramos at Real Madrid was often overpriced given his history of red cards.

The bookmakers will continue to come up with variations of the bookings markets and we can expect way more options in the coming years.

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Red Cards

Having placed a bet on the card market it is good news when a player is shown a straight red or two yellows.  

You can never know for certain but you can be more a touch more confident of a red if: 

• The fixture has a lot riding on it like promotion or relegation or a knock-out match.
• Certain fixtures especially local derbies are often feisty
• The referee's history of brandishing red cards 
• The historic record of the fixture. 

The above can of course be checked ahead of the game and may put you onto a value bet. 

Some fixtures have a history of red cards despite not being derbies. This phenomenon is similar to the strangely dominant head-to-head records that some sides hold over others. 

It's intriguing to consider that a significant portion of the red card phenomenon could be attributed to psychology. If players are aware of a fixture's history, they might subconsciously adopt a more aggressive approach, adding an interesting mental aspect to the game. 

Nevertheless, unquestioningly backing cards because a fixture has a history of them is only advisable if other factors point towards a particularly low or high booking points game.

A few people I know also like to think that Live TV fixtures tend to go over on the card indexes, and they can usually back that up with statistics. 

Knowing the nation's eyes are on you and you are under more scrutiny than usual must play on some players' minds. I can see where this theory comes from, but I would not be inclined to invest heavily without doing the research myself.

What Offences Can I Be Booked or Sent Off For

Yellow Card Offences

• Deliberately leaving the field of play without the referee's permission.   
• Delaying the restart of play.
• Persistent infringement.
• Dissent by word.        
• Failure to respect the required distance when play is restarted with a corner kick, throw-in or free kick.    
• Entering or re-entering the field of play without the referee's permission.
• Unsporting behaviour.          

Red Card Offences

• Denying an obvious goal scoring opportunity with a foul (unless the referee awards a penalty, and it was an attempt to play the ball).
• Denying an obvious goal scoring opportunity with a handball (this does not apply to a goalkeeper within their penalty area).
• Receiving a second yellow card (caution) in the same match.
• Serious foul play.
• Using offensive, insulting or abusive language and/or action(s).
• Violent conduct.

EPL Referee Statistics 2023/24

EPL Yellow Card Statistics

The data from 3 seasons of EPL football matches show which teams have received the most and fewest bookings.

It can be beneficial to keep your own booking records via a spreadsheet. 

EPL 2023/24 Yellow Cards

EPL 2022/23 Yellow Cards

EPL 2021/22 Yellow Cards

Bet Builder Including Cards

If you are a bet builder fan then bookings are often included in their pre loaded markets, or you can add booking totals to your own bet builder. 

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The more bets you add the longer the odds, but of course the harder winning becomes. 

However if you look at which players in a game are prone to either tackle poorly, talk back to the ref or time waste then that may be an option.

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European Booking Statistics By Division

The difference between European divisions in the number of cards shown can be pretty astonishing.

La Liga in Spain in the 2023/24 season had the most Yellow (1755) and Red (89) cards, of the big five European Leagues.

Other leagues worldwide that have proliferation of yellow cards include the top leagues in Argentina, Bolivia, Chile and Uruguay. 

This stat may be be of interest to those betting on the card markets in upcoming seasons.

Further Reading

The booking stats for Euro 2024 can be utilised for future tournaments especially when looking for yellow and red card trends.  

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UEFA Euros Red Cards And Yellow Cards Stats

Responsible Gambling

The following OLBG.com articles were written to remind all readers to gamble responsibly. 

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