Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.
The purpose of this blog is to provide readers with some guidelines on assessing value wagers during the European turf flat racing season.
This blog sits nicely alongside the betting school article on understanding bookmakers.
Millions of pounds will be won and lost by punters and the bookmakers during the turf flat season.
It is therefore imperative that punters secure the best value for each and every bet that they place over the coming months.
Most regular punters will be aware that they should always attempt to secure the best odds for their selection,
As it makes little sense to back a runner at 8/1 with one bookmaker when 10/1 is on offer with one or more of their competitors.
However, competition between the bookmakers for turnover and profits is always ferocious, which results in many of the major firms offering concessions and enhanced terms to punters in an attempt to secure market share,
This is great news for punters, albeit it is often difficult to evaluate which of the offers actually provides us with the best value.
Unlike many of the blogs that will be posted during the turf flat season, including a number penned by myself, this article will not provide readers with suggested methodologies for selecting potential wagers.
This blog will concentrate on methods for identifying the best concessions and enhanced terms that are available from the bookmakers.
Ante Post Markets
Ante Post Markets
All of the major bookmakers will have ante-post markets for the most prestigious turf flat races weeks, if not months before the day of the race
This is an attempt to entice punters to part with their cash, at the odds that prevail at the time.
The odds are therefore fixed for the bet irrespective of whether the selection's price contracts, or drifts
If the selection is not entered or is withdrawn from the race prior to the event being run, then under most circumstances the punter will lose their stake.
Punters must consider whether the odds that are offered by the bookmaker at the time that they place their ante-post wager, offer sufficient value to cover not only the selection's chance of winning the race but also the risk of the selection not running in the event.
There is no definitive method of determining whether ante-post odds offer value.
Punters will undoubtedly have assessed their selection against the likely opposition on the day and added a margin to cover non-participation in the race
For example, a punter may consider Horse A to have a 25% chance of winning a race when assessing it against the likely opposition.
This suggests that on the day of the race when stakes are refunded if the selection is confirmed as a non-runner, the punter would consider odds greater than 3/1 as offering an element of value.
However, when placing an ante-post wager, the punter must also consider the chance that the selection will not line up for the race and will, therefore, reduce the percentage chance of the selection winning by a suitable margin.
This will depend perhaps on the constitution of the horse (i.e. does the horse have a history of injury problems), plus perhaps the trainer's latest comments as to whether the selection is being targeted for the race, etc.
Under these circumstances, the punter may decide that the margin for non-participation should be 20% of the selection's chance of winning the race,
In which case the punter would believe that Horse A has a 20% chance of running and winning the race, so would be seeking odds in excess of 4/1, prior to placing an ante-post wager on Horse A.
In order to negate the risk of punters losing their stake due to the non-participation of their selection, many bookmakers now offers non-runner no bet concessions for ante-post wagers.
After the offer, this usually reduce the price of most of the horses in the ante-post market to negate the loss of revenue as a result of returning stakes on non-runners.
Many of the bookmakers announce their non-runner no bet offers for specific races at different times throughout the year,
This can result in a situation where some firms will be offering lower ante-post odds for a horse than some of the competition but with the non-runner no bet concession.
When this happens, punters need to consider which terms offer the best value in respect of their selection.
If Bookmaker X is offering 3/1 with the non-runner no bet concession, but Bookmaker Y has the horse at 4/1 without the concession, which firm offers the best value?
Assuming the punter believes that the horse in question has a 30% chance of winning the race, but only a 60% chance of participation, the maths are as follows:
Bookmaker Y offers 4/1 which equates to a 20% chance of winning.
However, the wager has a 40% chance of losing due to the horse not running.
Therefore the punter actually only has a 60% chance of the wager winning.
However, if the horse does run it only has a 30% chance of winning the race and providing a return on the 60% of the wager.
Therefore, the wager has 30 x 60/100 chance of winning which equates to 18%, which is less than the 20% chance that odds of 4/1 represent, which is poor value.
Bookmaker X offers 3/1 which equates to a 25% chance of winning.
The punter will be refunded his stake if the horse does not run in the race.
Therefore if the horse does run in the race the punter retains 100% of the original 30% chance of the wager winning, which is good value.
Under other circumstances, the best value may lay with the higher odds on offer with the Bookmaker that is not offering the non runner no bet concession, so it is important that the punter considers both options before placing an ante-post bet.
However, before placing any ante-post bet, the punter must also consider whether such a wager will offer the best value when compared with the odds and other concessions that are likely to be available from the bookmakers on the day, which I will consider in the next section.
Day Of The Race Markets
As mentioned earlier in this article, the competition between the bookmakers is ferocious over the course of the European turf flat racing season.
A multitude of different concessions are on offer that punters should consider when placing a wager.
Enhanced Odds on a Specific Runner in the Race
This concession is often offered on the short priced favourite to small stakes and is clearly worth accepting by punters who plan to back the said favourite.
Punters that would not normally consider placing a bet on the favourite at the odds which are generally available should consider backing the horse at the enhanced odds.
If the punter believes that the favourite has a 40% chance of winning the race, but is generally on offer at Evens, then there is clearly no value to be obtained by placing a bet on the horse.
However, if the horse can be backed at enhanced odds of 4.0 (3/1) to a £10 stake, then on the basis that it should theoretically win 4 times if the race is run on 10 occasions.
The return would be 4 x £40 which equates to £160 for a theoretical £100 outlay.
Obviously, the punter can also place a wager on their preferred selection, so in effect has 2 chances of securing a return on the race.
Stakes Returned as a Free Bet if Selection Loses
This concession may be offered on one specific runner (usually the favourite), or on all runners.
Punters should look out for this concession as it offers the chance to back their selection as a no-lose wager, which is rare.
If the concession is only offered on one runner in the race and it happens to be the punter's selection, then the punter should consider whether the odds on offer with the concession provide value
A recent example of this concession involved an odds on favourite that could be backed with the concession at odds of 1/3 to a maximum of £10 but was available at best odds of 2/5 elsewhere.
In my opinion, the horse in question had a 67% (1/2) chance of winning and in normal circumstances, I would not have placed a wager on the favourite.
However, the maths, in this case, suggested that with the free bet being offered odds of 1/3 actually represented better value than the 2/5 which was generally available elsewhere, as follows:
Assuming that the horse would win twice from 3 theoretical runnings of the race, then the returns to a £10 stake under each scenario is as follows:
- Odds of 2/5 without free bet concession: £28 (2 x £10 x 7/5)
- Odds of 1/3 with free bet concession: £36.67 (2 x £10 x 4/3, plus £10 free bet if the selection is beaten)
Under these circumstances backing the horse at the lower odds with the free bet, concession appears to be the wise option.
Very rarely, a bookmaker will offer stakes returned as a free bet on all runners in a race.
In this scenario, irrespective of the horse that the punter wishes to bet on, it makes sense to consider the maths, as above.
If the selection can be backed at best odds with the bookmaker offering the free bet concession, then it is unlikely that the punter will achieve better value elsewhere.
However, if the selection can be backed at bigger prices elsewhere, the punter should complete the above calculations, as it is rare for the value to lay with the bookmaker offering bigger odds without the free bet concession.
Stakes Returned as a Free Bet if Horse X Wins the Race
Obviously this concession has no bearing on punters who wish to back Horse X, who should look for value elsewhere.
However, if the punter intends to place a wager on another runner in the race, then it is worth considering whether the free bet concession offers value.
Again, if the bookmaker offering the free bet concession has also chalked up the best odds for the punter's selection, then it would seem unlikely that better value will be found elsewhere.
However, if the odds with the free bet concession are lower, then the punter should calculate the value on offer under each scenario, as follows:
To complete the calculation the punter will need to assess the chance of both Horse X and his selection have of winning the race.
For the purpose of this calculation, I shall assume the Horse X has a 40% chance of winning, whilst the punter's selection is believed to have a 20% chance of being successful.
I will also assume that the bookmaker offering the free bet concession has the selection priced up at 9/2, whilst the selection is best priced at 6/1 elsewhere.
Backing the selection at best odds offers a 20% chance of securing a return of £70 to a £10 stake, so if the race is theoretically run 10 times, then the return would be £140.
However, backing the selection at 9/2 with the free bet concession offers a 40% of securing a free bet (the chance of Horse X winning the race), plus a 20% chance of securing a return of £55 to a £10 stake, so if the race is theoretically run 10 times, then the return would be £110, plus 4 x £10 in free bets which equals £150.
Therefore, backing the selection at shorter odds with the free bet concession appears to offer the best value.
Best Odds Guaranteed
This concession is now widely available and many of the major bookmakers offer BOG on all races in the UK and Ireland.
It is impossible to calculate the benefit to punters of this concession in general terms as there is no knowing how the market will react after the punter has placed a wager.
However, from personal experience it is most frustrating to have placed a wager on a horse at what I believe to be odds that offer value, only for the price to drift out after the bet has been place and for the horse to then win at the inflated odds, as emotionally I feel as if I have backed a loser.
If the punter can obtain best odds for a selection and secure BOG at the time that the bet is placed, then there is little point in the punter looking to place the bet with an alternative bookmaker.
However, if the selection is offered at bigger odds with a bookmaker that is not offering this selection, then the punter needs to consider whether the odds are likely to contract, remain the same, or drift between the time that the bet is placed and the time that the race is run.
Unfortunately, there are no hard and fast rules in this scenario and it is purely down to the punter's best estimate as to how the market is likely to react, although if the selection has been tipped up by one or more of the most famous media pundits, or a tipping service, then the likelihood is that the price will contract, whereas if the selection is generally unfancied by the pundits, etc or is running in a race where they have tipped another horse, then there is a reasonable chance that the punter's selection may drift in the market.
In the latter situation it may be worth the punter taking a slightly shorter price on the selection with best odds guaranteed, rather than placing the bet at slightly bigger odds without BOG, but nothing is certain in this game.
It is also worth noting that Ladbrokes have recently unveiled a new concession by offering BOG plus an additional price boost, which clearly offers even better value for punters who have taken the price at the time the wager is struck only to find that their selection has drifted out to a bigger starting price.
Free Bet if the Selection Wins at Odds of x/1, or Bigger on any Channel 4 Televised Race
By taking up this concession the punter is effectively securing a 1 point boost to the quoted odds for their selection providing the horse wins the race and the odds are greater than the minimum odds quoted for the concession, which is usually either 3/1, or 4/1.
Therefore, if the punter can back their selection with a bookmaker that is offering this concession at the best odds (which are greater than the minimum odds for the concession) that are available at the time the wager is placed, they are effectively securing even better value to the tune of 1 full point, e.g. a wager on an 8/1 shot, effectively pays 9/1, as the punter also receives a free bet for the same stake in another race, etc.
Therefore, it may be worth the punter placing the wager with the bookmaker offering the concession even if the odds are slightly less than the best on offer in the market.
E.G 13/2 plus a free bet, may be considered better value than best odds of 7/1 with a bookmaker who is not offering a similar concession.
However, it is worth noting that usually, only the win portion of the wager qualifies for the free bet.
The other potential issue is that the free bet often has to be placed on the next televised race on Channel 4, which means that unless the punter has a firm selection for the qualifying race, they will have to place the bet on a horse which they may not have fully assessed, especially as time will be limited to make the selection and place the bet prior to the start of the next race.
I would, therefore, recommend that any punter who secures the concession in respect of their selection in the first race, also carefully assesses the next televised race to ensure that they have a valid selection on which to place the free bet, if their initial wager is successful.
Betting Without The Favourite
This concession is often worth considering when the market is headed by a short-priced favourite, which appears to have a rock-solid chance of victory in the race.
To assess which option offers the best value, the punter should consider the odds that are available for their selection in both the normal win market and the market without the favourite.
In order to undertake this analysis the punter will need to know the likely chance of the favourite winning and the chance that their selection has of finishing first in the race.
For the purpose of this example, I will assume that the favourite has a 50% chance of winning, whilst the punter's selection has a 20% chance of finishing first in the race and that the selection can be backed at best odds of 5/1 to win the race outright, whilst the odds without the favourite are quoted at 5/2.
Backing the selection at best odds in the outright market offers a 20% chance of securing a return of £60 to a £10 stake, so if the race is theoretically run 10 times, then the return would be £120.
However, backing the selection at 5/2 in the without the favourite market offers a 40% chance of securing a return (20/100 chance of an outright win plus a 20/50 chance of beating the remainder of the field if the favourite who has a 50% chance of winning the race is successful) of £35 to a £10 stake, so if the race is theoretically run 10 times, the return would be £140.
Therefore, in this example, the value option is to back the selection in the without the favourite market, although under different conditions it may be worthwhile backing the selection to win outright.
Additional Place Concession
This concession is most often offered for a large field (usually 20 or more runners).
In competitive handicaps where the standard place terms would be 1/4 odds for 4 places, the bookie can offer to pay out on the fifth/sixth-placed horse.
Obviously, the concession is of no benefit to punters who intend to place a win only wager on their selection.
But such is the competitive nature of the most prestigious big field handicaps during the turf flat season, that many punters will wish to secure some level of insurance by backing their selection each way.
As with many of the other concessions, a little consideration is required by the punter if the bookmaker who is offering to pay out on the fifth finisher in the race is offering the current best odds on the selection.
But if that is not the case then the punter should undertake further analysis to determine the best value option.
The analysis is more complex for this concession.
It is necessary to consider both the win and place positions of the wager to arrive at the overall outcome.
But for the purpose of this example, I will assume that the selection has a 10% chance of winning the race and a 40% chance of finishing in the first 4 places and a 50% chance of finishing fifth.
It can be backed at 12/1 with the bookmaker that is offering the concession but is available at 14/1 with competitor firms who are only paying out on the first 4 places.
The returns, as usual, will be based on 10 theoretical runnings of the race, in which a £10 each way bet is placed, as follows:
Bookmaker odds of 14/1 offering 1/4 odds for 4 places
Estimated win return (selection has 10% chance) is £150.00
Estimated place return (selection has 40% chance: 4 x 14/4 x £10 plus return of 4 x stake) is £180.00
Estimated total return is £330 for £200 stake for an overall profit of £130.
Bookmaker odds of 12/1 offering 1/4 odds for 5 places
Estimated win return (selection has 10% chance) is £130.00
Estimated place return (selection has 50% chance: 5 x 12/4 x £10 plus return of 5 x stake) is £200.00
Estimated total return is £330 for £200 stake for an overall profit of £130.
Therefore, under these conditions, both scenarios offer equal value to the punter, however this is an unusual occurrence and under different circumstances one or other of the options that are available will offer better value for the punter.
Should a bookmaker offer more places but a lower fraction for the place return, such as 1/5 odds for 5 places, against 1/4 odds for 4 places, then the punter should undertake the above analysis to identify the best overall value.
Enhanced Place Returns
Occasionally, one or more bookmakers may offer better place returns, but payout on the same number of places as the remainder of their competitors, e.g. 1/3 odds for 3 places against the standard 1/4 odds for 3 places.
In this scenario, the punter should undertake the same analysis as above to ascertain which firm offers the best value.
Tote Betting
The Tote win and place pools are often worth considering at the most prestigious race meetings.
On course punters will place bets at the Tote kiosks rather than with the on-course bookmakers.
This influx of generally small value wagers will often be placed on the favourite, or the most famous trainer, or jockey connected with the race, or the only grey horse, etc
This will skew the returns for the least favoured horses in the race.
This can result in huge dividends which offer, excellent value when compared with the returns for the same bet placed with the bookmakers.
However, it is not easy to predict when the value lies with placing a wager with the Tote
Whilst it is possible to monitor the market position of each runner in the race via the Tote screens, the figures are constantly changing in the lead up to the race, so whilst the estimated dividend for a particular runner may appear to offer value at a certain time, one or two sizeable wagers subsequently placed with the Tote may quickly turn the value position against the punter.
The question for punters is should they take a chance and place their bet with the Tote, or play safe and back their selection with the bookmaker.
Unfortunately, only time will tell and hindsight after the event is a wonderful thing.
Exchange Betting
Punters who place their wagers with the exchanges can often secure better odds than they would if investing with a bookmaker, however they should always consider whether the enhanced price (less commission) offers better value than the bookmaker's odds, plus the benefit of any additional concessions.
I would, therefore, recommend that punters compare the best bookmaker offers with the exchange odds, prior to placing their wagers.
Clearly, making best use of bookmaker offers and concessions during the turf flat racing season will not guarantee a profit at the end of the year.
Any edge that punters can secure however is worth taking, and can often make the difference between losing, breaking even and winning.
I also appreciate that punters may struggle to find the time to undertake the required analysis
It is a worthwhile exercise, as the calculations are relatively quick to complete, when compared to the time may punters spend analysing the chance of each runner in the race.
Even when based on my relatively conservative staking plans, I have found that for every minute I spend assessing the best value for my selections, results in a potential increase in my returns of approximately £1, which in my opinion is a worthwhile return.
I hope that readers have found this analysis of interest and as usual, I would welcome any comments and feedback, especially if you are aware of any other concessions which I can investigate and add to this article.
If you have enjoyed this blog, please feel free to share the link on social media, with your friends and contacts who are interested in horse racing.
Further reading on bookmaking is available via a range of betting school articles.
Finally, I wish all readers the best of luck with their selections during the European turf flat racing season.
