Hartlepool By Election Odds
May 3rd 2021 poll shows Conservatives with 17 point lead.
The betting odds from online bookmakers have reacted with Labour pushed out to 3.75(11/4) and the Tories shortening to 1.22 (2/9).
The Red Wall Continues To Crumble.
Betting Market Moves
The Labour Party started as favourites to hold on to Hartlepool, however, as of early April, the Conservatives are now odds on favourites.
The Hartlepool constituency was created in 1974 and has been Labour since that date.
If at the end of the 20th-century political commentators had proposed the Conservatives winning the Hartlepool constituency most would rightly have said they needed a lie-down.
However, times have changed and in the 2019 election, the Labour party share of the vote fell to its lowest level of 37%.
Labour held the seat but the arrival of the Brexit Party made for an uncomfortable election night for the sitting Labour MP Mike Hill.
The total % at the General Election in 2019 for the Brexit Party and the Conservatives was 54%.
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With the Brexit party less of a political force in 2021, we have to try and calculate where those Brexiteer votes will go, will they return to Labour? or find a new home with the Conservatives?
The Labour majority was 3.595 at the 2019 General Election.
The By-Election is due to be held on the 6th May 2021.
The Hartlepool Labour MP who resigned in March 2021 was Mike Hill, thus creating this By-Election.
Prior to the 2019 General Election, he had the Labour Whip withdrawn after a sexual assault allegation.
He was going to stand as an Independent but the Whip was reinstated and he fought the Election for Labour.
This cannot have helped his campaign in 2019 so maybe bettors need to consider that when looking at the 2021 By-Election.
The Party leaders and the state of their parties will play a crucial role in the Hartlepool By-Election.
For the Conservatives, Boris Johnson has successfully extricated Britain from the EU which could go down well in Hartlepool but has come under fire for his handling of the Covid pandemic.
New Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has steadied the ship after the leadership of the unelectable Jeremy Corbyn, but with a huge Conservative majority in Parliament has found it hard to make political headlines.
The Conservative Party In By-Elections
There has been a Conservative Government since May 2010, during that period they have only taken 1 constituency from another party at a By-Election.
Hartlepool By Election Key Questions
With Brexit finished but still fresh in voters minds will constituents return to their regular party loyalties?
How will Covid influence voters, has Boris Johnson handled the pandemic well or badly?
Will Jeremy Corbyn not being in charge be a vote winner for Labour?
Will female voters gravitate towards the Conservative female candidate?
Will the Mike Hill allegations taint Labour?
Main opposition parties do not lose many by-elections, so can the Conservatives break the mould?
The NHS is constantly in the news, will the Labour Candidate being a Doctor sway voters towards him?
Will an Ex-Labour MP who is standing for the Northern Independence Party take votes away from the official Labour candidate?
Will UKIP have a candidate?
By-Election Winning Party
Of the last 15 By-Elections, 12 have been won by the incumbent party. A statistic that will be welcome news to Keir Starmer and the Labour Party.
Candidates For The Hartlepool Constituency
|Independent||W Ralph Ward Jackson|
|Liberal Democrats||Andy Hagon|
|Monster Raving Loony||The Incredible Flying Brick|
|North East||Hilton Dawson|
|Northern Independence Party ||Thelma Walker |
|Reform UK||John Prescott|
|SDP ||David Bettney |
|Women's Equality||Gemma Evans|
|Green Party||Rachel Sarah Featherstone|
|Freedom Alliance||Steve Jack|
By Election Polling
There will be a myriad of polls in the lead up to the Hartlepool By-Election.
There is always a margin of error in polls so caution is always needed when deciding on a bet based solely on polling.
You can also expect plenty of gaffs from the candidates, these will be reported heavily or lightly or ignored depending on which newspaper you are reading or which channel you are watching.
The 1st By-Election intention poll conducted by Survation at the end of March 2021 resulted in the following:
|Thelma Walker||Northern Independence Party||2%|
|John Prescott||Reform UK||1%|
|Hilton Dawson||North East Party||1%|
|Green Party Candidate||Green Party||1%|
|Andy Hagon||Liberal Democrat||1%|