4:50 Southwell Tips

Just four starts over hurdles for this 7yo, ex PTP runner. His best run was a close 3rd of 11 on his handicap debut when last seen. He’s been off the track for 7 months but going off his previous runs - waiting for better ground. He’s better off at the weights now. This is a low grade, weakening looking contest. The trainer has sent out 8 runners in the last two weeks - 5 winners for a huge 63% strike rate.

Down another 2 pounds and Bowen in the saddle to try and make him work today! Runaway Train definitely showed promise when 2nd on his handicap debut in a 15f here in November. In recent runs, he has failed to build on that since, posting 2 disappointing efforts. However, when you replay the races, you can see that he has potential and was willing, so a chance is taken today on him. So my mind says that the eye-catching handicap debut hinted at a better potential, and Bowen will make him work harder today, so he may just squeak in the win.

Only a few of these bring a recent run or any form into this. Ran nicely last time out on handicap debut and would be a surprise if not involved in the finish here.

Not shown that much in chases on last 4 runs, so return to hurdles here looks the sensible option. On a very attractive hurdle mark of 72 here, is a C,D winner with a 38 percent course profile, so clearly goes well @ this track, good jockey retains ride and shrewd trainer best here with his hurdlers last 5 seasons, making current 10/1 solid Ew value in the race.

Could have a chance of placing if actually competing today (F/P/4/7/F last 5 runs) and at 20/1 her odds are big enough for me to chance an EW bet Although she fell last time out, she was only 4½ length down in 3rd when coming down at the last and in her penultimate run she wasn’t too far away (8½ Lengths) when 7th of 14 Not many of the runners come here in good form, so if she can run to the level of her last 2 runs (and stay on her feet) she could outrun her odds to, hopefully, finish in the first 3

MACS XPRESS is zero from 27 over hurdles and zero from 4 for this trainer, but hidden away in his form are some lines that suggest he could get involved. This ex-Jessica Harrington inmate runs off a career-low mark and returns after a 4-month break. He has been placed 4 times, including at this trip, and generally improves for the fitting of some sort of headgear. I think connections will make the pace here, and this course suits front runners.

5th of 9 over 2m5f at Warwick two weeks ago. Outpaced there having taken a keen hold and jumped left. Down 7lb, and this is my longshot gamble of the day at this shorter distance.