3:20 Southwell Tips

Bowen is onboard again today and 2 pounds lower mark given. El Muchacho won on his chase debut for Harriet Dickin at Plumpton on Easter Monday 2023, but since then has struggled to replicate that form, including during a 4-run stint with Christian von der Recke. Now with the Olly Murphy yard, he showed some encouragement on stable debut when 3rd at Chepstow, suggesting there may still be a spark. But now he needs to build on that recent Chepstow effort. With the chase-winning experience and signs of revival for new connections, it makes him a worthy challenger, especially as the market is speaking in his favor today and he is the current favorite.

The model I run suggests Harel Du Marais is the value pick here and can win this race. The race simulation had Harel Du Marais in first, Jetronic in second, and El Muchacho in third. This result has largely been driven by Harel Du Marais having the second highest RPR for this 5-runner field. It does line up with a full stone less in weight to carry when compared to the current market leader, Duke of Luckley. Harel Du Marais is a previous course and distance winner and comes here after a good second only 12 days ago.

First run since November but did well over hurdles last year with a win and two places from just four runs. That win came here and also placed here on the flat.

The stable and jockey are well among the winners, and a chance is taken on this one. He won in France over 17f on soft going and again for Paul Nicholls over 20.5f on soft. His form, however, has been poor since going into handicaps, but he did show better last time when 3rd over 16f off a low of 118. He now runs off an all-time low 116 in class 4 (his last winning grade) and could win again.