6:57 Newton Abbot Tips

Byzantium’s trainer, Paul Nicholls, was pleased that they were able to buy him back at his previous owner's dispersal sale. He landed his first win last time out in a novice handicap hurdle at Warwick and now comes here in a novice under a 7lb penalty. However, his winning rider that day retains the ride and he claims a valuable 5lb off his back. He sets the standard on adjusted RPRs and the yard is in good form with a 44% strike rate this season, including 7-14 here. The extra 1.5f should suit, and he recorded decent Race IQ data when scoring at Warwick. He looks the one to be on here to follow up.

The model I run suggests Kill The Groove can win this one. This result has been driven by Kill The Groove having the second highest RPR of the 8 runners here, but an official ranking that is the second lowest. This subsequently means Kill The Groove goes out with the joint lowest amount of weight to carry around this 2m 5f round trip. Has placed with two third place finishes recently and needs to improve to get over the line first. Model has issued a 'moderate' stake indicator, which has been driven by a combination of the small gap back to second in the race simulation but reasonable value on offer here at 6.5s. This translates to a 1pt bet on a scale of 0-4.

Time To Bite last saw a hurdle over three years ago. He developed into a decent front-running chaser and won three of his last five chases. His hurdle form in Ireland was nothing special, often going clear early and fading well before the finish. But it could be that he has improved with age. Now a ten-year-old and less headstrong, he could go close to making most over two miles five and a half furlongs around the sharp Newton Abbot hurdles track.