6:27 Newton Abbot Tips

Manyana Blue is a frontrunner on the flat who is still a maiden, weakening late on over both a mile and ten furlongs. She has a similar mark on the flat to the favorite Blue Tempus, who is also a maiden and did not do any better for moving up in distance from ten furlongs to twelve furlongs last time at Doncaster, finishing last of seven. The better value is with Manyana Blue as Newton Abbot is a sharp track that favors frontrunners.

The model I run suggests Return With Gold can win this data-light juvenile maiden hurdle. Experience tends to be important over these kinds of events, and Return With Gold is the only one who has form figures to go by. The only prior race was a healthy 3rd place finish and should come on from that. All horses, bar one or two, go out carrying the same amount of weight, and Return With Gold last ran out 17 days ago, so race fitness shouldn't be a concern. The model has issued a 'very low' stake indicator, which translates to a 0.5pt bet on a scale of 0-4.

The second wild card today. Marrakesh Dawn is a 3-year-old bay filly by Land Force out of Miss Morocco (Nathaniel). She is trained by M Usher and ridden by Brendan Powell. She is rated 84 and steps up to 1 mile 1 furlong for this race. Her recent form is primarily over hurdles, with a pull-up in a juvenile hurdle at Market Rasen where she was eased early following a mistake. On the Flat, she tends to be held up and with just three runs, she remains a relatively unexposed filly in this field of runners, so taking a small stake today as she has had a runs unlike most of these new comers and she may improve because of the experience under her belt.