5:07 Carlisle Tips

Tipped this one last time out when beaten just under a length at 18/1. Quick turn out from 3 days ago and should be primed now having that run. Avoided the handicapper, so running off the same mark. Archie Young retaining the ride and should be going well here given the last performance. These are optimum conditions, so should be performing once again.

There's obviously not a lot of winning going on here, but of the runners, KEEP WARM has to be considered as he's one of a small group that looks capable. Likely to go hammer and tongs with JKR Cobbler again, but I think conditions suit him more.

The last race at Thirsk is showing as good, but there was a bit more give in the ground, I feel. If that was the case, then it was really starting to ramp up on the softer ground and will really benefit from soft ground here at Carlisle.

Karl Burke is a real shrewdie, and he puts his stable jockey on board now after the horse was ridden by a 7lb apprentice last time out when given a quiet ride. But closer inspection shows that it was full of promise (on good to soft ground), and the horse gets softer ground now with a first-time visor. The ground is actually the key to the horse's chances since he won well on soft last year (the only time he's raced on it), and it should be all systems go now with everything in his favor.

The race appears fairly open, and a few could challenge for the honors. I fancy a big run from Mayberry Moon, who last won a year ago over the course with Connor Beasley on board, and he is booked to ride today.

Hampered in running last time out. Returns from a wind operation and seven pounds lower than last win. Also a course and distance winner.

At the bottom third of the handicap mark in this field and did show positive signs LTO when 5th of 9 at Newcastle last month in her handicap debut. But now, switching back to turf with a dropped mark might help.

Bit of a wild card with a possible bounce back here. Habari is in stall number 7 for David Bourke with Andrew Mullen riding and has run 5 times, winning none but placing once, giving a 20% place rate. He didn't fire on stable debut over 6 at Kempton 29 days ago but needed the run and may prefer further than this. However, his mark of 68 looks doable and stall 7 is a fair draw if he can bounce back at 100/1.