3:48 Tipperary Tips

A Nod To Getaway has been running well recently over hurdles, winning his latest race at Listowel in a 17-horse, two-and-a-half-mile handicap hurdle. This has now pushed his hurdle mark up to 105, which is 16 pounds above his chase mark. His last chase at Killarney in October was over this distance, and he finished 2nd, losing the lead after a mistake at the second last. He surely should win with a clear round at Tipperary.

The model I run suggests Il Silenzio can cause an upset and win this one. Not too fancied by the early market, but this result has been driven by Il Silenzio having a comparably high RPR relative to the other runners in the race. However, it goes off as the lowest officially ranked horse. This results in Il Silenzio going out carrying less weight around this 2m 7f round trip. The model has issued a 'very low' stake indicator, which translates to a 0.75pt bet on a scale of 0-4.

With the front two in the betting taking a big step up in trip, it could pay to side with this one. He was poor on his chase debut on April 24 over 20f, but his hurdle form since stepping up in trip to 24f has greatly improved, winning twice over 22f and 24f and placing 2nd twice from his last five races. This trip, on that evidence, should suit for only his second chase start and could be hard to beat.

Born Bright looks the type to do better now in handicap company. Longer trip looks to suit and looks the most unlucky of the runners that was held up last time out. Improvement looks likely.