2:48 Tipperary Tips

May Call You Back won this race comfortably last year off a lowly mark of 77. She was pushed up eleven pounds and failed to follow up at Tramore over further. She came back over hurdles at Tramore a month ago, down to two miles again, winning by ten lengths off 81, which has now been pushed up seventeen pounds to 98. So she now may cope with her chase mark of 88.

Looks well handicapped and is back over fences following an impressive hurdle win just 25 days ago. He's now 2lb better off against Get It Right compared to their last chase meeting. The ground shouldn't be an issue, and trainer JP Ryan is having a solid run.

Ew chance as he runs off a much lower mark over fences than hurdles. Nudged up 3lb from his last chase start where he did well to finish 2nd, having made a horlicks of the start and blundering at the first.

A comfortable point-to-point winner with horses in behind with chase ratings as high as 118. Jumped well on chase debut over course distance last time out but weakened late on. May have needed the run being just his second after a break, and best runs under rules so far have been on third run back. Cheekpieces can help and should be involved in the finish down to a 0-100 for the first time now running off a mark of 100.

Chance in this. Shapes well last time on reappearance, his first run for 8 months. Looked like he needed the run and ran well for a long way. Should come on for the run.

The model I run suggests an upset from Baltinglass Hill in this one. The result has been driven by Baltinglass Hill having the highest RPR of the larger 16 horse race but an official ranking which leaves him well treated off this mark. Goes out carrying a middle order weight despite having the potential for much more. Last out 22 days ago and came 5th, so needs to show more, but is a prior distance winner over this 2m round trip. Model has issued a 'very low' stake indicator which translates to a 0.5pt bet on a scale of 0-4.

Philip Byrne’s 9-year-old gelding SILENT FLIGHT is currently trading at odds I like - a whopping 40/1 - and if I’m being honest, I can’t quite see why. Yes, this son of MAHLER was pulled up just 24 days ago at Punchestown, but I was genuinely surprised to see him upped to such a staying distance (25f). If you’re of a forgiving nature, his penultimate run at Wexford was actually quite encouraging. Despite falling, he looked bang there around the 2-mile mark and only began to tire approaching 18f. Now dropped 3lbs in the weights - with another 5lbs taken off thanks to jockey Aiden Kelly - and crucially returning to 2½ miles, I’m more than happy to take a chance on this lightly raced lad. There’s a fair argument he’s simply been running over the wrong trip lately, and today’s conditions could suit him much better. He’s not the most obvious on paper, but if he can repeat that Wexford effort and stay on his feet, he could outrun those odds. At 40/1, with a more suitable trip and weight, I think he’s worth a small each way play & I'm more than happy to give him another chance.