2:18 Tipperary Tips

Goes up 4lb for his win last time, and connections put up a top 3lb claimer, which all but negates the weight increase. His win last time was value for a bit more, as he made a mistake at the last, disguising the ease of the win.

Delivered a career-best performance over this C&D in a handicap chase last time. Carries 11-3, which is effectively the same weight as that win. At 5 years old, he is still relatively young for a chaser, so could have further progression in him.

The model I run suggests Clonshire River can win this one. Clonshire River lines up here with a comparably high RPR to the rest of the other 16 runners but does not look overly penalized for it in the weights. Has shown some recent form figures when first 40 days ago and looks to repeat that here. Quite a lot of runners here haven't run in a significant amount of time, so having only run 40 days ago might be advantageous from a race fitness perspective. The model has issued a 'very low' stake indicator, and this translates to a 0.5pt bet on a scale of 0-4.

This one finished just over 4L behind Aeros Luck when they were 1st and 3rd last time out. Both have a change of jockey, with K. Donoghue on this one and C. Stone-Walsh on Aeros Luck. This one is 4lb better off and is entitled to finish closer, so is the pick on jockey bookings.

A Wave Of The Sea has run well in his last three chases last December and two in March. If fit and ready after a 101-day break, he should be competitive as his mark has fallen to 115, and it was much higher in previous seasons.

Philip Fenton-trained mare has now dropped down to a mark of 120, which could see the course and distance winner serving up a big run. She may have been struggling with what the handicapper had her on. Her highest mark was 132, being twelve pounds down from this mark, plus six pounds lower than her win at Kilbeggan. But she won off 120 over course and distance. She can show notice of substance today.

Should Peter Fahey's 9-year-old gelding TUCKMILL get in from the first reserve spot, then I really don't think you could write him off - especially at current 20/1 odds. This son of COURT CAVE's race was over before it even began 61 days ago, with a fall at the first in Listed chase company at Punchestown. But if we look at this charge’s run at Leopardstown (17f, good/yielding) over the Christmas period, he ran a blinder in fifth - just one length behind some very capable sorts in AN PEANN DEARG and THE KING OF PRS - off today’s mark of 114. And while this is competitive, it’s nowhere near as deep. Jockey Jake Coen sheds 3lbs and knows this lad inside out, with two wins and two places from six runs aboard. He also boasts a very respectable 41.67% five-year place strike rate at this track. This lad may not jump off the page, but his Leopardstown form reads well in this context, and he could easily sneak into the frame if lining up. Fingers crossed he gets a run - because this is a charge that appears to be hiding in plain sight, and one I’m happy to keep on side.

C&D Victor achieved 3 victories from 9 outings last season. Finished 8th in a handicap chase at Ballinrobe 36 days ago. Has the potential to perform well if he overcomes his last performance and gets a chance to race in reserve. The 25/1 each-way bet appears to be a solid opportunity.

Wasn't going to touch this, but the big odds tempt. A previous course winner and better over jumps. Just Turnpike Trip from the C Byrnes yard missed about 3 years when last seen in a hurdle off long odds, but was kept going throughout, so that looks promising. So a small each way.