8:08 Roscommon Tips

Only his second start over fences, but I saw enough on his debut. He was jumping well and economically at the rear until jumping too low and upending. But with his good jumping, the ride of Mr. Derek O'Connor, and the increase in trip, it all points towards a positive run.

Cullenwaine has looked back to some better form on his last 2 runs , that was a good 5th over this distance last time out, runs from a 1 lb lower mark today. Today's race doesn't look much tougher than his last. Small each-way tip.

Blew the cobwebs away over hurdles last time after 5 months off and now reverts back to fences, having won from just a 3 lb lower mark over fences last October. Decent each-way chance.

Oldtown To Emly won a maiden at Ballingarry on his latest run and gets in here with very little weight off a mark of only 76 based on his hurdle performances in 2023 and 2024.

Brian McMahon's 7-year-old gelding, GREAT RAINBOW, may not look like an obvious candidate on paper, but I’m inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt for his debut over fences 18 days ago at Limerick, especially after a 230-day absence. Pedigree-wise, this son of GREAT PRETENDER should be well-suited to both the tough weather and the staying distance. He looked to be staying on well in similar conditions at Ballinrobe (22f) when last seen on heavy ground. There are a couple of other positive factors. First, the trainer’s recent form, with an impressive 71.43% place strike rate over the past fortnight, alongside a respectable 26.67% place strike rate here at Roscommon over the last five years. Secondly, while jockey Stephen Connor is still classed as inexperienced, he’s in good form, with a 75% place strike rate over the past month and a perfect 100% place strike rate at Roscommon from his two previous rides. I wouldn’t rush to the bookies, but I’m happy to have a small tentative poke, Given the conditions, trainer, and jockey form, I think he has a sniff.

The model I run suggests an upset by The Eye of Tulla for the last race of the day. The Eye of Tulla lines up for this larger 16 horse race with the highest RPR of any of the runners here. Has been given an official rating of 75, which is the lowest of all the runners and therefore carries the lowest amount of weight on this 3m 1f stamina test. The claiming jockey, Mr. Nugent, picks up the reins and relieves a further 7 lbs off his back, which is valuable over this sort of distance. Not shown signs of form or fluency, but if getting back to potential, can cause an upset. Model has issued a 'very low' stake indicator, which translates to a 0.5pt bet on a scale of 0-4.