7:48 Kilbeggan Tips

Marv Michael is going places as a chaser. He won by twelve lengths here last time, and although pushed up eleven pounds, he could follow up with Henry De Bromhead putting a seven-pound claimer on board.

The fav is short and this one looks a live chance against it. This is only his third chase and plenty scope for improvement. The extra trip may help and the trainer is a dab hand with young chasers.

El Champo has shown good course form with two placings from two runs here and one win at this track overall. Despite a below-par effort over a much longer trip last time, he is dropping back in distance, which should suit better. Off a reduced mark now and showing some solid past form on similar going, he remains a danger if recapturing his form.

The model I run suggests Gaelic Arc can win this one. Gaelic Arc lines up here with a significantly higher RPR compared to the rest of the field and carries less weight than the other runners too. Gaelic Arc goes out with an initial weight of 10-4, but Harry Sexton relieves a further 7 lbs, which is helpful over the 2m 4f round trip. The model has issued a 'very low' stake indicator, which translates to a 0.5pt bet on a scale of 0-4.

PAKENS ROCK is an older more experienced type who arrives in good form and race-sharp. He has course form and is feasibly treated for a chaser , so in this company with a talented rider aboard he could be one of the better value plays on the card.

At a big price, I am going to take a chance on Ashdale Bob, who has won a couple of races recently, including over course and distance, and will be fresh from a break.