6:18 Kilbeggan Tips

Showed significant improvement when stepped up in trip last time, narrowly losing. He's unexposed at this distance and can defy the 5lb rise to go one better.

Finished a good second in a handicap last time. A mark of 85 looks lenient on that effort and there could be improvement to come.

RED SECRET finds a handicap hurdle race where he enters calculations potentially well treated given his career flat profile. He also stayed two miles racing under the other code , so this extreme distance back in this handicap hurdles sphere fit from a recent campaign could see a big run.

Bigira gets in as 1st reserve and should come on for her first run in 196 days when beaten 25 lengths here in April. Not had many tries at this trip but has shown she gets it and has run well here previously. She has enough ability if right to win this, and with the yard in such tremendous form, 5 winners from the last 7 runners, she looks a good value EW option.

Taking advice from me right now is like cutting steak with a spoon - but you can never discount an Aengus King runner. His 11-year-old veteran gelding FILL THE TANK’s recent performances haven’t exactly set the world alight, but I’m happy to put a line through both of his latest runs. The first came at Punchestown after a 169-day break, over an unsuited 2-mile trip. He then followed up at Listowel - a left-handed track, something this old boy has never taken to. This son of GOLD WELL is an out-and-out stayer. At this age, he knows what he likes - and that’s 3 miles over a sharp, right-handed track. He’s won here at Kilbeggan (over fences) and finished second here off a mark of 97. All his wins have come over this trip, and he now lines up off a career-low mark of 87 - 13 lbs below his last win. In-form jockey Gavin Brouder (sheds 3 lbs) boasts a 55.56% place strike rate here in the past year. The trainer holds a 27.27% place rate over the last five. It might be like lighting a match in a windstorm and whispering “maybe”, but at 33/1, I’m happy to roll the dice.

This is the trainer's only entry. She's got out today, and they have an interesting jockey booking/change. A good value each way bet for the 5 places available.

Is dangerously well-handicapped on his old form. If he can recapture anything close to his best, he could easily outrun his large odds in this company.

Robin Elite is worth a punt at 33-1 off a lowly mark of 75. He was pulled up last time returning to rules in a handicap chase but previously won a point at Dawstown in May. Although a poor 13th of 15 in this race last year, he was 3rd of 15 at Bellewstown in August 2023 over too short a distance when his mark was 87.

The model I run suggests a big upset by the unfancied Realtin Lonrach. This result has been driven by Realtin Lonrach having the highest RPR of all the 16 runners and an official ranking which leaves him rock bottom in the weights. Sean Cleary Farrel picks up the reins and takes off a further 7 lbs for claiming, and this means Realtin Lonrach is carrying a huge 2 stone less than some runners here today. No recent form to go by is the main concern and the reason for the price, but the potential weight differential looks way off and hopefully causes an upset. The model has issued a 'very low' stake indicator which translates to a stake of 0.5pt bet on a scale of 0-4.