U.S. House of Representatives Betting Odds, History and Trends

Updated: 249 Politics & Current Affairs

U.S. House of Representatives Betting Odds, History and Trends

By United States House of Representatives or Office of the Speaker of the House - speaker.gov and Speak Paul Ryan on Facebook (direct link), Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/ind

Michael Calabrese US Content Manager

Experienced sports journalist, College sports expert and broadcaster, hailing from Pennsylvania

The 2022 midterm elections will determine which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives. Betting odds available at various sportsbooks indicate that the Republicans are prohibitive favorites to control the House this cycle. 

These political betting odds can change at a moment's notice, so please check with your sportsbook as to the current odds on offer for either side.

Party Moneyline Probability
Democrats +1250 7.4%
Republicans -2500 96.2%

What is Betting on the US House of Representatives Election?

Betting on the U.S. House Elections is simply making predictions and wagers on potential outcomes of the various betting markets available for the midterm elections.


4 Popular House Elections Betting Markets

There are a host of options to bet on the during the midterm House Elections. In addition to betting on the outright House control by party, you can also bet on the individual state results, the number of seats one party or another will win for representatives in the house, and you can even wager on whether more male or female representatives will win elections.

As political betting becomes more and more popular, niche markets and prop bets pop up. 


1. House Control

You can predict and wager on the outright result in terms of which party will control the United States House of Representatives following the midterm elections.

It is just a matter of predicting and selecting one party to gain control.


2. Seats Prediction

You have the option of selecting the range or exact number of representatives each party will control in the House of Representatives following the midterm elections. These markets will also include independent candidates that caucus with either side.


3. Most Accurate Senate Forecast

There are a host of online publications providing forecasts for the outcomes of the midterm elections. Some oddsmakers allow you to wager on which website or publication will have the most accurate predictions.

For instance, one current market is pitting Fivethirtyeight.com against the Economist.com.

Most Accurate Predictions Odds

Publication Moneyline Probability
Fivethirtyeight -140 58.5%
The Economist -110 52.4%

4. State House Races

You can wager on the individual results of the states and which representative or party will win the election.

Example Market: - Pennsylvania House Election Winner Odds

Candidate Moneyline Probability
Lisa Scheller (R) -110 52.4%
Susan Wilde (D) +110 47.6%

How to bet on the US Senate Elections

The process of betting on the US House of Representatives race is as straightforward as betting on a sporting event. 

Betting apps and websites provide a political section in the menu. Once you’ve arrived you can select from a host of events that includes individual U.S. House races and overall control of the U.S. House by party.   

If you do not have an active online betting account, you’ll need to set one up. You can head over to our sportsbooks where you will see a list of bookmakers available in the US, arranged by state.

We have in-depth sportsbook reviews so you can see what other users think of them before deciding, or you can access a list of Sportsbook promos currently available from all US betting sites. 


  • Once you’ve signed up, simply click on the candidate or party you wish to bet on. 

  • This will open up the bet slip, at which point you will see confirmation of the betting odds being offered.

  • Now you choose your stake - most betting sites will show you how much you can expect to have returned if your prediction is correct.

  • If you are satisfied, hit PLACE BET, to confirm your selection, stake, and bet.

  • You will be given a receipt for your bet and it will appear in your open bets in your account details.

  • Then it's just a matter of waiting for the Election Results.


US House Election Contenders in 2022

All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are up for election this November. 

Congressmen and congresswomen are elected to two-year terms. Every two years the members of the house are up for reelection. 

Of the 435 races on this year’s docket, FiveThirtyEight and The Economist among others have deemed only eight to be truly competitive. What they mean by competitive is that the two candidates are within ten points of each other according to polling data.. The remaining 427 races are all projected to be landslide victories.


Alaska House Winner Betting Odds

Candidate Moneyline Probability
Sarah Palin (R) +250 28.6%
Nicholas Begich (R) +300 25%
Mary S Peltola (D) +110 47.6%

Alaska has a special voting process in which voters utilize a “Ranked Choice Voting” system in which they rank candidates in order of preference. This makes all three candidates viable in this election cycle. 


Kansas House Winner Betting Odds

Candidate Moneyline Probability
Amanda L Adkins (R) -110 52.4%
Sharice Davids (D) -110 52.4%

Oregon House Winner Betting Odds

Candidate Moneyline Probability
Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R) +110 47.6%
Jamie Mcleod-Skinner (D) -110 52.4%

Pennsylvania House Winner Betting Odds

Candidate Moneyline Probability
Lisa Scheller (R) -110 52.4%
Susan Wilde +110 47.6%

Texas House Winner Betting Odds

Candidate Moneyline Probability
Mayra Flores (R) +120 45.5%
Vicente Gonzalez (D) -120 54.6%

Virginia House Winner Betting Odds

Candidate Moneyline Probability
Jen A. Kiggans (R) +120 45.5%
Elaine G Luria (D) -120 54.6%

Rhode Island House Winner Betting Odds

Candidate Moneyline Probability
Allan W Fung (R) +125 44.4%
Seth M Magaziner (D) -125 55.6%

Texas House Winner Betting Odds

Candidate Moneyline Probability
Monica De La Cruz (R) +135 42.6%
Michelle Vallejo (D) -135 57.5%




Things to Consider When Betting on the US House Election

It’s vital to keep abreast of the current news, good, bad, or even scandalous. Headlines win and lose votes and provide the fabled “October Surprise.” Betting markets don’t respond instantaneously to political news in the same way they do to sporting news like injuries, suspensions and weather conditions. So if you’re able to quickly decipher how political news could impact an election, you can place bets teeming with value before markets adjust. 

Historical results can also be something to consider when betting on the US House Elections, although past results are no guarantee for what might happen in the future.

Arguably the best place to find a steer on which way things may go is from polls published by various market research agencies, universities, the press, or political publications online and in print.

History of U.S. House Control Since 1999.

You may want to consider some US House election history when selecting your wager this time around.

106th House of Representatives (1999–2001)

  • Majority Party: Republicans (223 seats)
  • Minority Party: Democrats (211 seats)
  • Other Parties: 1 Independent
  • Total Seats: 435

 

107th Congress (2001–2003)

  • Majority Party: Republicans (221 seats)
  • Minority Party: Democrats (212 seats)
  • Other Parties: 2 Independents
  • Total Seats: 435

 

108th Congress (2003–2005)

  • Majority Party: Republicans (229 seats)
  • Minority Party: Democrats (205 seats)
  • Other Parties: 1 Independent1
  • Total Seats: 435

 

109th Congress (2005–2007)

  • Majority Party: Republicans (233 seats)
  • Minority Party: Democrats (201 seats)
  • Other Parties: 1 Independent1
  • Total Seats: 435

 

110th Congress (2007–2009)

  • Majority Party: Democrats (233 seats)
  • Minority Party: Republicans (202 seats)
  • Total Seats: 435

 

111th Congress (2009–2011)

  • Majority Party: Democrats (257 seats)
  • Minority Party: Republicans (178 seats)
  • Total Seats: 435

 

112th Congress (2011–2013)

  • Majority Party: Republicans (242 seats)
  • Minority Party: Democracts (193 seats)
  • Total Seats: 435

 

113th Congress (2013–2015)

  • Majority Party: Republicans (234 seats)
  • Minority Party: Democracts (201 seats)
  • Total Seats: 435

 

114th Congress (2015–2017)

  • Majority Party: Republicans (247 seats)
  • Minority Party: Democracts (188 seats)
  • Total Seats: 435

 

115th Congress (2017–2019)

  • Majority Party: Republicans (241 seats)
  • Minority Party: Democracts (194 seats)
  • Total Seats: 435

 

116th Congress (2019–2021)

  • Majority Party: Democrats (235 seats)
  • Minority Party: Republicans (199 seats)
  • Total Seats: 435

*The State of North Carolina did not submit an election certificate for the Ninth U.S. Congressional District prior to the opening day of the 116th Congress.

 

117th Congress (2021–2023)

  • Majority Party: Democrats (222 seats)
  • Minority Party: Republicans (212 seats)
  • Total Seats: 435

*The State of New York did not submit an election certificate for the Twenty-Second U.S. Congressional District prior to the opening day of the 117th Congress.

 

Controlling the U.S. House provides the majority party with the ability to tax and spend public money for the national government. This “Power of the Purse,” so to speak, comes along with other duties, including representatives ability introduce bills and resolutions, offer amendments and serve on committees. The House of Representatives shares equal responsibility for lawmaking with the U.S. Senate. Control of the House allows this body to send approved legislation to the Senate. 

Stability At The Polls

Simply by virtue of the total number of seats (435) in the House compared to the Senate (100), there is more turnover. Since 2000, sitting U.S. Senators running for reelection have won 85.6% of the time. For congressmen and congresswomen that reelection success is even higher at a staggering 93.8%. But the Senate hasn’t witnessed a filibuster-level of control for either party since 1979. The House has swung wildly in the past ten years, but neither party has held more than 57% of the House since 2011.

Unlike the U.S. Senate, elected officials in the House serve terms of just two years. Long terms (six years) contribute to the average age of a sitting U.S. Senator (64.3 years old). The average age of congressmen and congresswomen is just 58.4 years old. Senate seats are also viewed as more prestigious, which is why it is often the last stop for many politicians. Seats in the House are often viewed as stepping-stone positions.

It is worth noting, however, that the time to bank on turnover in the house is following a presidential election. On average, congressmen and congresswomen win reelection nearly 94% of the time. But in the last four midterm elections following the election of a new president (first-term), those numbers have dipped to 90%, 96%, 85.4%, and 91%, respectively.

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