NFL Opening Weekend Betting Strategies

We look ahead to the opening weekend of the NFL season to see if there are any strategies and systems that are worth a follow based on previous season results.

NFL Opening Weekend Betting Strategies
NFL Opening Weekend Betting Strategies

NFL Opening Weekend Betting Strategies & Systems

In this blog, we will be looking at the opening weekend of the NFL season and whether or not there are any repeating factors from previous seasons that could lead us to find some winning wagers.

The opening weekend is so important in the NFL, with only eighteen rounds of games, getting off on the right foot can set up the season for a team, you don't want to begin the season on the backfoot!

Teams would have used pre-season to get them prepared for the season ahead, integrating new players into the team and getting the plays drilled into the players for them to put into practice for the new season.

Below you can find each game for week 1 of the 2022 NFL season, each game will provide statistics of the sportsbook markets, the Moneyline, the ATS, and the Total Points with records and profit or loss to $10 stakes.

NFL Opening Weekend Strategies

Here are some strategies that might be worth following, but also remember we have some very good NFL Handicappers on the site, their picks are always worth a second look.

  1. Back the Panthers (MoneyLine) - 5-3 record vs 0-7-1
  2. Back the 49ers (MoneyLine) - 5-3 record vs 1-7
  3. Back the Unders (49ers/Bears) - 11-5 record in favor
  4. Back the Overs (Eagles/Lions) - 11-5 record in favor
  5. Back the Chiefs (MoneyLine) - 7-1 record vs 4-3-1
  6. Back the Cowboys (ATS) - Bucs are 1-7 ATS

NFL Thursday Night Season Opener

The 2022-23 NFL season opens in Los Angeles with the Rams hosting the Buffalo Bills, both of whom have winning records for week 1 since 2014, the Bills have gone 5-3 whilst the Rams have gone 6-2 and you would be showing a profit if backing both teams in week 1 over that time too.

Both of them have an identical 5-3 ATS record and for total points, the week 1 games involving the Bulls have a 6-2 record, 6 have gone under and only 2 have gone over whilst those involving the Rams have a 4-4 split.

Thursday, Sept. 8 | 20:20 (ET) | NBC
Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams
5-3-0 (+22.60) MoneyLine 6-2-0 (+27.20)
5-3-0 (+13.80) ATS 5-3-0 (+17.30)
6-2-0 (+36.00 / -42.00) Total Points (U/O) 4-4-0 (-3.90 / -3.40)

NFL Sunday Afternoon Schedule

We have two losing records going up against each other in Atlanta with the Falcons (3-5) hosting the Saints (3-5) and whilst both have losing records on the Moneyline, they both have 5-3 records ATS and show profits. The total points contradict each other with the Saints seeing 7 of their 8 going over, however, those involving the Falcons have seen 5 of the 8 going under the line. It was mixed fortunes in week 1 last season with the Saints romping to a 38-3 win over the Packers whilst the Falcons suffered a 32-6 loss to the Eagles.

Sunday, Sept. 11 | 13:00 (ET) | Fox
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
3-5-0 (-24.30) MoneyLine 3-5-0 (-16.00)
5-3-0 (+15.00) ATS 5-3-0 (+17.10)
1-7-0 (-61.00 / +54.10) Total Points (U/O) 5-3-0 (+16.10 / -22.10)

The Cleveland Browns have not had a great time of things in season openers, in 2014 they set an NFL record with their 10th straight season opener loss and things have not gotten much better since, their draw in 2018 did end the losing streak but still did not register a win, they are 0-7-1 since 2014. They will be heading to the Carolina Panthers who are 5-3 and defeated the Jets 19-14 in week 1 of last season.

Sunday, Sept. 11 | 13:00 (ET) | CBS
Cleveland Browns @ Carolina Panthers
0-7-1 (-70.00) MoneyLine 5-3-0 (+12.70)
5-3-0 (+17.40) ATS 2-5-1 (-32.00)
3-5-0 (-22.40 / +16.30) Total Points (U/O) 5-3-0 (+17.00 / -22.00)

The Bears are another team who have struggled in week 1 too, they lost 34-14 to the Rams last season and their record is now 0-7-1 and they will host the 49ers who will be looking to repeat the 41-33 opening game win last season which came against the Lions, they do have a winning record of 5-3, however, backing them ATS would not have been a profitable system whilst the under & over combined are not splittable at 8-8.

Sunday, Sept. 11 | 13:00 (ET) | Fox
San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears
5-3-0 (+15.20) MoneyLine 1-7-0 (-58.00)
3-5-0 (-19.00) ATS 3-5-0 (-21.40)
7-1-0 (+55.50 / -61.00) Total Points (U/O) 4-4-0 (-2.20 / -3.30)

The ATS market is a tricky one as both the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals have a losing record ATS, the Steelers 3-5 and the Bengals 1-6-1. Both do however have a winning record on the Moneyline, the Steelers are 5-2-1 and the Bengals 5-3 and there is not a lot to split the total points with a combined under just edging it at 9-7. Last season the Steelers opened up with a 23-16 win in Buffalo whilst the Bengals also opened with a win when defeating the Vikings on home field.

Sunday, Sept. 11 | 13:00 (ET) | CBS
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
5-2-1 (+21.10) MoneyLine 5-3-0 (+21.10)
3-5-0 (-21.40) ATS 1-6-1 (-49.00)
5-3-0 (+15.40 / -22.20) Total Points (U/O) 4-4-0 (-2.90 / -2.50)

The Eagles made a great start to last season with their 32-6 win in Atlanta over the Falcons whilst despite putting up 33 points, the Lions still tasted defeat when hosting San Fran (41-33). The Eagles have the better record of the two teams for opening games with their 6-2 record compared to the Lions losing 3-4-1 record. One thing that is clear is the opening games involving the Lions do put points, all of the last eight have seen the games go over the line, whilst the Eagles are more favored 5-3 to under.

Sunday, Sept. 11 | 13:00 (ET) | Fox
Philadelphia Eagles @ Detroit Lions
6-2-0 (+23.80) MoneyLine 3-4-1 (-13.50)
5-3-0 (+17.30) ATS 4-4-0 (-4.10)
5-3-0 (+16.50 / -22.00) Total Points (U/O) 0-8-0 (-80.00 / +74.40)

The Colts have one of the worst opening day records, they have now lost their last 8 games and will head to Houston looking to end that losing streak, the Texans also have a losing record albeit not as bad but it is still 3-5. The Colts hosted the Seahawks last season looking to end a 7-game losing streak but came out on the wrong end of a 28-16 scoreline whilst the Texans picked up a 37-21 win over the Jags.

Sunday, Sept. 11 | 13:00 (ET) | CBS
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
0-8-0 (-80.00) MoneyLine 3-5-0 (-27.60)
3-4-1 (-12.40) ATS 5-3-0 (+14.90)
2-6-0 (-40.80 / +35.40) Total Points (U/O) 4-3-1 (+7.50 / -12.70)

This is a repeat of the 2021 season opener, a game that saw the Dolphins pick up a narrow 17-16 win over the Pats, this time it will be the Dolphins hosting and the Pats will be looking for revenge. The Pats do actually have a winning record of 5-3 whilst that win last season brought the Dolphins to 4-4. In terms of points, it's the under which is slightly edging it with a combined record of 10-6.

Sunday, Sept. 11 | 13:00 (ET) | CBS
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
5-3-0 (+17.40) MoneyLine 4-4-0 (+2.60)
4-4-0 (-3.70) ATS 3-5-0 (-22.70)
6-2-0 (+34.50 / -40.70) Total Points (U/O) 4-4-0 (-3.50 / -3.10)

The Ravens were involved in the final game of week 1 last season and it wasn't worth the wait for Raven fans with them suffering a 33-27 defeat to the Raiders on Tuesday Night Football whilst the Jets didn't have much better luck as they went down 19-14 at the Panthers. Despite that defeat last season, the Ravens still have a winning record of 5-3 compared to the Jets losing record of 3-5.

Sunday, Sept. 11 | 13:00 (ET) | CBS
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets
5-3-0 (-2.50) MoneyLine 3-5-0 (-15.50)
5-3-0 (+14.40) ATS 3-4-1 (-13.40)
5-3-0 (+16.90 / -23.00) Total Points (U/O) 4-4-0 (-3.10 / -2.80)

Two losing records facing off here, the Jags are 3-5 and the Commanders are 2-6 so neither enjoys the opening week. Both will be looking for better fortunes than last season, the Jags lost 37-21 in Houston whilst the Commanders lost 20-16 when hosting the Chargers. There is not much splitting them on the Moneyline and it's the same when looking at the ATS and the total points, the combined total points are 8-8!

Sunday, Sept. 11 | 13:00 (ET) | Fox
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Washington Commanders
3-5-0 (+7.90) MoneyLine 2-6-0 (-28.50)
3-5-0 (-22.20) ATS 2-6-0 (-42.90)
3-5-0 (-21.90 / +17.00) Total Points (U/O) 5-3-0 (+15.60 / -22.80)

NFL Sunday Evening Schedule

The Chiefs opened up last season with a 33-29 win over the Browns with the home-field advantage which moved their record to an almost perfect 7-1. The Cardinals were impressive on the opening week last season, putting up 38 points in Tennessee to beat the Titans 38-13 which moved them into a winning record of 4-3-1. Both have struggled with ATS, and there is nothing in the total points that combined stands at 6-9-1.

Sunday, Sept. 11 | 16:25 (ET) | CBS
Kansas City Chiefs @ Arizona Cardinals
7-1-0 (+68.30) MoneyLine 4-3-1 (+21.70)
1-7-0 (-61.00) ATS 3-5-0 (-23.90)
1-6-1 (-50.80 / +44.90) Total Points (U/O) 5-3-0 (+15.30 / -21.60)

Neither the Raiders nor the Chargers have a losing record for week 1 games, the Raiders are 5-3 but are 2-6 ATS, last season saw them host Baltimore and secure a 33-27 win over the Ravens. The Chargers went to Washington last season to defeat the Commanders 20-16, that win moved their record to 4-4 but again they have struggled ATS with a 1-4-3 record.

Sunday, Sept. 11 | 16:25 (ET) | CBS
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers
5-3-0 (+33.80) MoneyLine 4-4-0 (-16.10)
2-6-0 (-42.70) ATS 1-4-3 (-30.20)
4-4-0 (-3.50 / -2.60) Total Points (U/O) 3-5-0 (-22.50 / +16.10)

The Packers were the lowest scoring team in week 1 last season putting up just 3 points in New Orleans in a 38-3 defeat to the Saints which was unlike them, they went into the game with a 6-1 record of for week 1 games, that is now 6-2. The Vikings also have a winning record, theirs being 5-3, they suffered a narrow defeat in Cincinnati last season (27-24) to the Bengals, both teams have struggled ATS.

Sunday, Sept. 11 | 16:25 (ET) | Fox
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
6-2-0 (+27.10) MoneyLine 5-3-0 (+6.50)
3-5-0 (-22.90) ATS 5-3-0 (+19.50)
3-5-0 (-22.40 / +17.00) Total Points (U/O) 4-4-0 (-4.40 / -4.10)

It was business as usual last season for the Giants with an opening day defeat, they hosted the Broncos and went down 27-13 leaving their record at 1-7. They will head to Tennessee this season to face a 4-4 Titans, they started at home last season too but that resulted in a 38-13 loss to the Cardinals. They are 3-4-1 and 2-6 ATS which is not great and the combined total points is 9-7 so much a lot in that market.

Sunday, Sept. 11 | 16:25 (ET) | Fox
New York Giants @ Tennessee Titans
1-7-0 (-60.80) MoneyLine 4-4-0 (+15.60)
3-4-1 (-11.90) ATS 2-6-0 (-41.50)
5-3-0 (+16.20 / -22.50) Total Points (U/O) 4-4-0 (-3.80 / -3.60)

NFL Sunday Night Football

The first Sunday Night Football of the season is a repeat of the opening game from last season in what turned out to be a close game. The Bucs eventually came out on top in Tampa with a 31-29 win over the Cowboys and moved their opening record to 4-4 whist the Cowboys have a losing 3-5 record. The Bucs don't have the best of records ATS with that being 1-7 and whilst that game last season went over, a combined 7-9 record would indicate the total points being close.

Sunday, Sept. 11 | 20:20 (ET) | NBC
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
4-4-0 (+23.60) MoneyLine 3-5-0 (-39.80)
1-7-0 (-61.00) ATS 4-3-1 (+7.00)
2-6-0 (-41.70 / +34.90) Total Points (U/O) 5-3-0 (+17.20 / -22.60)

NFL Monday Night Football

The opening Monday Night Football of the new NFL sees the Broncos travel to Seattle to face the Seahawks, a rematch of Super Bowl XLVIII and a game that sees Russell Wilson's return to Seattle. Last season the Broncos went to New York in week 1 to defeat the Giants 27-13 which took their record to 6-2, however, this season they are up against another team with a winning record, the Seahawks who are 5-3 and they also opened last season with a win after going to Indianapolis to defeat the Colts 28-16.

Monday, Sept. 12 | 20:15 (ET) | ESPN/ABC
Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks
6-2-0 (+19.90) MoneyLine 5-3-0 (-6.60)
4-2-2 (+15.50) ATS 3-4-1 (-12.70)
4-4-0 (-3.50 / -2.30) Total Points (U/O) 4-4-0 (-3.60 / -3.40)

*All Profit/Loss figures are shown to a $10 stake since the start of the 2014 season, and all records are shown as win-loss-push/draw.

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