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- Conclave begins today to elect the next Pope, with 133 cardinals in attendance.
- Pietro Parolin is the current 9/4 favourite, followed by Luis Antonio Tagle at 10/3.
- Bookmakers price Over 4.5 rounds at 1/3, signalling an expected lengthy vote.
133 Cardinals Begin Historic Conclave to Elect New Pope
Today marks the beginning of a pivotal moment in Church history as 133 cardinals have gathered in Vatican City to select the successor to Pope Francis, who passed away last month.
The Conclave brings together clergy from across the globe:
- 52 from Europe
- 23 from Asia
- 20 from North America
- 17 from both Africa and South America
- 4 from Oceania
With diversity in the room and differing views on the Church’s future direction, bookmakers expect multiple rounds of voting before white smoke signals the election of the new Pope.
What the expert says...
Who Are the Main Contenders?
Odds via Paddy Power:
Pietro Parolin (9/4)
Vatican's Secretary of State, considered a diplomatic and moderate figure, leads the market and could appeal to cardinals looking for continuity.
Luis Antonio Tagle (10/3)
A strong contender from the Philippines, Tagle has long been seen as a modern, media-savvy figure and his election would mark a second consecutive non-European pope.
Matteo Zuppi (7/1)
The Archbishop of Bologna is known for his compassionate stance and political awareness and is popular among progressives.
Pierbattista Pizzaballa, Peter Erdo, and Robert Sarah round out the top contenders, each with pockets of strong support across different regions and theological leanings.
| Next Pope Betting | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Pietro Parolin | 9/4 | 30.8% |
| Luis Antonio Tagle | 10/3 | 23.1% |
| Matteo Zuppi | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Pierbattista Pizzaballa | 15/2 | 11.8% |
| Peter Erdo | 17/2 | 10.5% |
| Robert Sarah | 12/1 | 7.7% |
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How Many Rounds Will It Take?
While some papal elections in history have been settled within just a couple of ballots, the betting market suggests a prolonged Conclave in 2025.
With wide geographic representation and ideological diversity among cardinals, the Over 4.5 rounds market is heavily favoured.
| Number of Rounds to Elect the Next Pope | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 Rounds | 1/3 | 75.0% |
| Under 4.5 Rounds | 2/1 | 33.3% |
Where to Bet on the Next Pope
You can place bets on the next Pope and other Vatican-themed specials at major betting sites, including Paddy Power.
Markets may be suspended once the Conclave concludes, so now is the time to take a position.
Don’t forget to check the latest free bets for unique markets like this.
