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- Andy Burnham is the dominant 1/4 favourite with Ladbrokes to become the next permanent Labour leader
- Keir Starmer's replacement between July and September 2026 is the 4/7 odds-on favourite in the departure timeline market
- Angela Rayner is second in the leadership market at 10/1, with Ed Miliband at 12/1 and Wes Streeting at 14/1
One Week, One Vote, One Man
The Makerfield by-election takes place on Thursday June 18, seven days from now, and the Labour leadership market, priced by Ladbrokes, has already reached what amounts to a verdict.
Andy Burnham is the 1/4 favourite to become the next permanent Labour leader, a price that implies an 80% probability for a man who currently holds no parliamentary seat and must first win a by-election before he can even begin accumulating the 81 Labour MP nominations required to formally trigger a leadership challenge.
For those looking to follow the political markets, the top political betting sites have the full range of leadership, departure timeline and Makerfield odds available, and our full Makerfield by-election odds breakdown has the complete picture on next Thursday's vote.
The sequence of events the market is pricing is extraordinary in its speed and ambition. Burnham wins Makerfield on June 18. He enters Parliament for the first time since 2017. He begins accumulating MP nominations.
Burnham's 1/4: The Dominant Position of a Man Who Hasn't Cast a Vote in Parliament Yet
The 1/4 price for Burnham to be the next Labour leader is one of the most striking single odds in the current political betting landscape.
At 80% implied probability, it reflects not just his personal popularity, but the entire structural logic of the current crisis.
There is no credible alternative. Angela Rayner, who resigned as Deputy Prime Minister in the aftermath of the local election collapse, is available at 10/1. Ed Miliband, whose return would be without precedent in modern Labour history, sits at 12/1.
Burnham's own campaign message is unapologetically direct about the stakes: he is not running merely to be Makerfield's MP. He is running to be Prime Minister. And the market, at 1/4, agrees that the path from Wigan to Downing Street is more plausible than not.
Next Permanent Labour Party Leader Odds
| Next Permanent Labour Party Leader | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Burnham | 1/4 | 80.0% |
| Angela Rayner | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| Ed Miliband | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Wes Streeting | 14/1 | 6.7% |
| Al Carns | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Shabana Mahmood | 40/1 | 2.4% |
When Will Keir Starmer Be Replaced as Labour Leader?
| Period | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| April – June 2026 | 50/1 | 2.0% |
| July – September 2026 | 4/7 | 63.6% |
| October – December 2026 | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| 2027 or later | 10/3 | 23.1% |
What the expert says...
The Timeline Market: July to September Is the Critical Window
The Starmer departure timeline market is as revealing as the leadership odds themselves.
April to June 2026 is 50/1 with the market effectively ruling out a departure before the Makerfield vote on June 18, and acknowledging that even if Burnham wins convincingly next Thursday, the formal mechanics of a leadership challenge take time.
July to September 2026 at 4/7 is the dominant price, an odds-on prediction that the contest, once triggered, will reach its conclusion within the summer.
October to December 2026 at 4/1 represents the scenario where the process takes longer than expected, perhaps through a contested campaign or internal party wrangling.
The 2027 or later price at 10/3 reflects Starmer's own stated intention to stay in a position that the market now rates at approximately 23% probability.
Makerfield By-Election Odds: Burnham Odds-On at 1/7 as Question Time Admission Fuels Leadership Ambition
Where To Bet on the Labour Leadership Market
With Makerfield polling day on June 18 and the leadership contest expected to follow rapidly, this market is moving daily.
Ladbrokes are one of the most trusted and bookmakers for political markets, with competitive odds across all leadership, departure year and Makerfield markets.
New customers may find free bets available so always check the latest promotions before placing.
For the best prices across all political betting markets, visit our guide to the top political betting sites.
