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- Labour are 4/6 favourites with William Hill to win the Makerfield by-election, expected as early as June
- Reform UK are close behind at 6/5 with Nigel Farage declaring that Reform will "throw absolutely everything" at the by-election
- Burnham's path to the ballot paper is not yet fully cleared, though Number 10 has indicated Starmer will not seek to block him this time
The Most Consequential By-Election in a Generation
British politics has rarely moved faster than it has in the past 24 hours and at the centre of the storm sits a small constituency in Greater Manchester that has suddenly become the most watched piece of electoral territory in the United Kingdom.
Josh Simons resigned as MP for Makerfield yesterday, standing aside explicitly to allow Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to stand in the subsequent by-election, the first time in over sixty years that a parliamentary vacancy has been created specifically to provide a seat for a figure outside Parliament.
The announcement came within hours of Wes Streeting's resignation as Health Secretary, a day of extraordinary political turbulence that has brought the question of Keir Starmer's future as Labour leader to a head.
William Hill have already priced up the market, with Labour at 4/6 and Reform at 6/5 in a contest that could reshape British politics entirely.
For those looking to follow the political betting markets, the best political betting sites have the full range of by-election odds available ahead of a vote expected as early as June 18.
Burnham: The King of the North Comes Home
Andy Burnham's return to Westminster politics is not yet guaranteed, but the direction of travel is unmistakable.
The Greater Manchester Mayor confirmed on X that he will be requesting NEC permission to stand as Labour's candidate, saying he grew up in the area and has lived there for 25 years.
His statement struck a tone of careful deference to the constituency: "I truly do not take a single vote for granted and will work hard to regain the trust of people in the Makerfield constituency, many of whom have long supported our party but lost faith in recent times", while leaving no ambiguity about his broader ambition.
Polling has consistently shown Burnham as the most popular senior Labour figure among both party members and the general public, with one poll showing 62% of Labour members would back him against Starmer in a hypothetical head-to-head contest.
Makerfield By-Election Odds
| Makerfield By-Election | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 4/6 | 60.0% |
| Reform UK | 6/5 | 45.5% |
| Restore Britain | 20/1 | 4.8% |
| Greens | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Conservatives | 66/1 | 1.5% |
| Lib Dems | 100/1 | 0.99% |
Reform's Threat: Farage Promises to "Throw Everything" at Makerfield
The 4/6 price for Labour, implying a 60% probability of victory, reflects both Burnham's formidable personal popularity in Greater Manchester and a very real recognition that this will be the hardest by-election Labour has fought in years.
Reform UK secured a huge amount of the vote across Greater Manchester in last week's local elections, with Labour reduced in a devastating set of numbers that underlines why the market has Reform priced at 6/5 rather than at the kind of long odds a Labour safe seat would normally attract.
Nigel Farage moved swiftly. Within hours of Simons's resignation announcement, the Reform leader posted on X: "We look forward to the Makerfield by-election. Reform will throw absolutely everything at it."
Makerfield, with its working-class heritage and history of Labour representation, is precisely the kind of constituency that Reform have been targeting since their formation.
The irony is that Burnham, the politician most capable of articulating the frustrations of those voters, will now have to face Reform directly in his own backyard.
Where To Bet on the Makerfield By-Election
With the by-election expected as early as June 18, this market will move considerably as the official date is confirmed, candidates are announced and campaign polling begins.
William Hill are one of the most trusted UK betting sites for political betting markets, with competitive by-election odds available across all parties.
For the full range of political betting markets, visit our guide to the best political betting sites.
