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- Andy Burnham is 1/25 to be the next permanent Labour leader after his Makerfield landslide
- 2026 is the 1/20 favourite year for Keir Starmer to be replaced
- Starmer is 1/16 NOT to lead Labour into the next general election
Burnham Lands Makerfield As UK Betting Sites Price Leadership As Near-Certain
Betting sites have reacted dramatically to Andy Burnham's emphatic Makerfield by-election victory, with the top political betting sites now pricing the Greater Manchester Mayor as a 1/25 shot to become Labour's next permanent leader.
Ladbrokes have responded to one of the most decisive by-election results in recent memory as Burnham secured 24,927 votes, a 55% overall share, beating Reform UK's Robert Kenyon by more than 9,000 votes on a turnout of 58.8% that exceeded the 2024 general election figure.
That last point matters. It's the first time since 1982 that a by-election turnout has been greater than that of the previous general election, and the size of Burnham's mandate has effectively settled the leadership conversation that had been bubbling for months.
Labour's vote share in Makerfield rose by 10 percentage points, an extraordinary swing in mid-term politics, and one that has comprehensively reshaped the political betting landscape.
Next Permanent Labour Party Leader Odds
| Next Permanent Labour Party Leader | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Burnham | 1/25 | 96.2% |
| Al Carns | 25/1 | 3.8% |
| Wes Streeting | 25/1 | 3.8% |
| Ed Miliband | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Angela Rayner | 50/1 | 2.0% |
| Yvette Cooper | 50/1 | 2.0% |
Burnham at 1/25 is the kind of price you rarely see in political markets and a 96.2% implied probability is the bookies treating this as procedurally decided.
It's the price of a candidate who has the mandate, the media moment, the parliamentary platform, and the polling backdrop to walk into a leadership contest as the overwhelming favourite from day one.
For context, just 48 hours before the Makerfield result, this market looked entirely different. Burnham was a clear favourite but with realistic challengers in single-figure prices.
What Year Will Keir Starmer Be Replaced As Labour Leader?
| What Year Will Keir Starmer Be Replaced As Labour Leader? | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1/20 | 95.2% |
| 2027 | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| 2029 or later | 25/1 | 3.8% |
| 2028 | 50/1 | 2.0% |
A 95.2% implied probability for Starmer being replaced before the year is out is the kind of price that essentially treats the timeline as confirmed.
It's a remarkable position to take in mid-June about a sitting Prime Minister, but the Makerfield numbers have given the layers all the cover they need.
Will Keir Starmer Be PM At The Next General Election?
| Will Keir Starmer Be PM At The Next General Election? | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| No | 1/16 | 94.1% |
| Yes | 8/1 | 11.1% |
This is the single starkest line on the whole slate. 1/16 that Starmer won't lead Labour into the next election translates to a 94.1% implied probability, and even that has shortened from where it was pre-Makerfield.
The 8/1 on "Yes" is the contrarian punt, and at 11.1% implied probability it's not impossible. If the parliamentary party fragments on the question of timing, if a Burnham challenge falters in committee stages, if polling improves dramatically through the summer, there are still paths to Starmer surviving. But the market is now overwhelmingly pricing the opposite.
What the expert says...
Where To Bet On The Political Betting Specials
Political leadership markets are some of the most actively traded specials on the UK book, with prices capable of moving by the hour on by-election results, polling shifts and parliamentary briefings.
The top political betting sites tend to be quickest to react, and most major UK betting sites will carry leadership and PM markets in some form.
New customers can also use free bets and welcome offers.
