Your data guide to football betting, Dan Tracey shows you where the numbers point before the market catches up.
With the dust now settled on the regular phase of this season’s EFL Championship campaign, it is time to look at the stories throughout nine months of arduous action and although promotion and relegation are always the main chapters, there are also plenty of other subplots.
Because with 46 matches being played by each of the 24 teams in the division, it allows analysts and number crunchers to dive into the numbers and make sense of what has just concluded.
The True Cost of Victory in Championship Football 🏴⚽️📊💷
While for those who are regular readers of our website, you may be aware of a recent analysis piece that we undertook and with the price of a Premier League victory now being calculated, we can also do the same for England’s second tier.
Not only that, but with the history books now denoting Leeds as the champions and the other 23 positions also secured after the lottery of the play-offs, we can also provide a further level of context to our findings.
Which means without further delay, here is what we have first uncovered when it comes to the pursuit of Championship glory (table sorted by transfer value)
EFL Sky Bet Championship / Blackburn Rovers and Watford at Ewood Park in Blackburn, England on 26th April 2025 // Image: SPP Sport Press Photo. /Alamy Live News
| Team | Transfer Value | Wins | Cost Per Victory |
|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | £2,788,000 | 16 | £174,250 |
| Blackburn | £4,071,500 | 19 | £214,289 |
| Oxford | £3,247,000 | 13 | £249,769 |
| Sheffield Wednesday | £4,037,500 | 15 | £269,167 |
| Portsmouth | £4,165,000 | 14 | £297,500 |
| Preston | £3,935,500 | 10 | £393,550 |
| Swansea | £7,590,500 | 17 | £446,500 |
| Stoke | £5,389,000 | 12 | £449,083 |
| Plymouth | £5,032,000 | 11 | £457,455 |
| Sunderland | £9,987,500 | 21 | £475,595 |
| Millwall | £8,627,500 | 18 | £479,306 |
| Queens Park Rangers | £7,157,000 | 14 | £511,214 |
| Bristol City | £10,157,500 | 17 | £597,500 |
| Derby | £8,024,000 | 13 | £617,231 |
| West Bromwich Albion | £9,945,000 | 15 | £663,000 |
| Sheffield United | £18,819,000 | 28 | £672,107 |
| Coventry | £18,062,500 | 20 | £903,125 |
| Leeds | £27,557,000 | 29 | £950,241 |
| Middlesbrough | £21,411,500 | 18 | £1,189,528 |
| Cardiff | £11,007,500 | 9 | £1,223,056 |
| Burnley | £46,061,500 | 28 | £1,645,054 |
| Luton | £26,647,500 | 13 | £2,049,808 |
| Norwich | £29,665,000 | 14 | £2,118,929 |
| Hull | £26,520,000 | 12 | £2,210,000 |
Looking at the table above, there is one thing that arguably stands out more than most is that all clubs have spent some form of transfer money across the 2024/25 season.
Not the biggest surprise but when compared to 12 months previous, only 22 of the 24 decided to empty their bank accounts in a bid to either earn promotion or stave of relegation.
The gap between the Premier League and the Championship may be increasing but there does seem to be more money sloshing around the second tier of English football.
Financial Disparity in English Football
With that being said it does also show that you need to spend your way out of the division. The team that that booked their place in the 2024/25 edition of the Premier League as Championship winners were also the team that had the third highest transfer expenditure.
Leeds pipping Burnley to the Championship title and the Clarets topping the table when it comes to overall transfer spend but with promotion secured, that expenditure will have been worth every penny.
It cost Leeds £950,241 per league victory. It cost Burnley £1.64m for the same accolade. They may have been promoted but that ranked the 18th and 21st respectively in this particular table.
The Smart Investment in Championship Football 🏆💰⚽️
While Sunderland are also looking forward to life in the Premier League and with the Black Cats having spent just under £10m last season, each of their 21 league wins were worth £475,595.
Of course, it is not just about the promoted teams but also those who find themselves top when it comes to cost per victory.
Watford find themselves ruling the roost as each of their league wins cost £174k - £40k more than that of Blackburn in second.
Then again, neither of these clubs managed to earn a playoff place and if you were a fan of either fan, you would be asking the board to stump up more money before the start of the 2025/26 season.
Watford Grind Out The Value 🚀⚽️💷
TOP TO BOTTOM
While with both Leeds and Burnley in mind, we can look at the price of victory table in a different order and if were to stack the number of wins from highest to lowest, here is what that the same data sample would look like.
Leeds, UK. 28th Apr, 2025 // Image: Every Second Media/Alamy Live News
| Team | Transfer Value | Wins | Cost Per Victory |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds | £27,557,000 | 29 | £950,241 |
| Sheffield United | £18,819,000 | 28 | £672,107 |
| Burnley | £46,061,500 | 28 | £1,645,054 |
| Sunderland | £9,987,500 | 21 | £475,595 |
| Coventry | £18,062,500 | 20 | £903,125 |
| Blackburn | £4,071,500 | 19 | £214,289 |
| Millwall | £8,627,500 | 18 | £479,306 |
| Middlesbrough | £21,411,500 | 18 | £1,189,528 |
| Swansea | £7,590,500 | 17 | £446,500 |
| Bristol City | £10,157,500 | 17 | £597,500 |
| Watford | £2,788,000 | 16 | £174,250 |
| Sheffield Wednesday | £4,037,500 | 15 | £269,167 |
| West Bromwich Albion | £9,945,000 | 15 | £663,000 |
| Portsmouth | £4,165,000 | 14 | £297,500 |
| Queens Park Rangers | £7,157,000 | 14 | £511,214 |
| Norwich | £29,665,000 | 14 | £2,118,929 |
| Oxford | £3,247,000 | 13 | £249,769 |
| Derby | £8,024,000 | 13 | £617,231 |
| Luton | £26,647,500 | 13 | £2,049,808 |
| Stoke | £5,389,000 | 12 | £449,083 |
| Hull | £26,520,000 | 12 | £2,210,000 |
| Plymouth | £5,032,000 | 11 | £457,455 |
| Preston | £3,935,500 | 10 | £393,550 |
| Cardiff | £11,007,500 | 9 | £1,223,056 |
Because here we can start to see more of a natural order to proceedings and with Leeds and Burnley both earning the two automatic promotion berths, it stands to reason that they should and would also have the most wins (Burnley and Sheffield United joint second).
While if we try to extend the hypotheses further, we can see that the five of the top six in the final league table would also finish in the top six when it comes to ranks by wins - the only outluer being that of Bristol City who find themselves positioned 10th in the list.
Which also places further spotlight on Blackburn and although they recorded 19 league wins last season, they were once again pipped to the post when it comes to playoff invites. The club feels like its in managed decline but somehow manages to punch above its weight.
The Tough Road to Promotion 🏴⚽️💰
At the other end of the table, there is also a correlation between relegated outfits and their inability to win league games in large quantity.
Both Cardiff and Plymouth suffered demotion to League One and picked up just nine and eleven wins respectively - leaving them in the bottom three in this list.
They both sandwich Preston who only picked up 10 league wins at a value of £393,550 each and if the Championship table was based on wins alone, they would be relegated instead of Luton,
As it is, it is the Hatters who suffer a second sucessive relegation and one that comes around after spending £26.6m during the 2024/25 season.
That outlay was in a bid to get them out of the Championship at the first time of asking. It did achieve that - only in the wrong direction!
13 league wins for Luton last season, each costing just over £2m
FINDING THE CORRELATION
Of course, the best way to add further context to all of this, is by comparing the two tables and seeing what correlation can be found and to do that, we must rank the clubs in terms of victory cost and final league position.
Milos Kerkez,Bournemouth, Everton v Bournemouth at Goodison Park in Liverpool on Saturday 8th February 2025 // Andrew Orchard sports photography / Alamy Stock Photo
| Team | Transfer Value | Wins | Cost Per Victory | Cost Rank | League Position | Cost vs League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | £116,540,000 | 25 | £4,661,600 | 24 | 2 | 22 |
| Fulham | £93,380,000 | 27 | £3,458,519 | 21 | 1 | 20 |
| Sheff Utd | £75,870,000 | 21 | £3,612,857 | 22 | 5 | 17 |
| West Brom | £66,400,000 | 18 | £3,688,889 | 23 | 10 | 13 |
| Nottm Forest | £23,280,000 | 23 | £1,012,174 | 16 | 4 | 12 |
| Middlesbrough | £22,710,000 | 20 | £1,135,500 | 17 | 7 | 10 |
| Blackburn | £16,250,000 | 19 | £855,263 | 13 | 8 | 5 |
| Stoke City | £27,540,000 | 17 | £1,620,000 | 18 | 14 | 4 |
| Bristol City | £32,160,000 | 15 | £2,144,000 | 20 | 17 | 3 |
| Huddersfield | £630,000 | 23 | £27,391 | 2 | 3 | -1 |
| Birmingham | £21,550,000 | 11 | £1,959,091 | 19 | 20 | -1 |
| Millwall | £4,590,000 | 18 | £255,000 | 6 | 9 | -3 |
| Swansea | £11,000,000 | 16 | £687,500 | 12 | 15 | -3 |
| Cardiff | £15,170,000 | 15 | £1,011,333 | 15 | 18 | -3 |
| QPR | £6,080,000 | 19 | £320,000 | 7 | 11 | -4 |
| Luton | £0 | 21 | £0 | 1 | 6 | -5 |
| Preston | £5,740,000 | 16 | £358,750 | 8 | 13 | -5 |
| Coventry | £3,160,000 | 17 | £185,882 | 4 | 12 | -8 |
| Derby | £13,000,000 | 14 | £928,571 | 14 | 23 | -9 |
| Reading | £8,370,000 | 13 | £643,846 | 11 | 21 | -10 |
| Blackpool | £1,800,000 | 16 | £112,500 | 3 | 16 | -13 |
| Peterborough | £5,410,000 | 9 | £601,111 | 9 | 22 | -13 |
| Hull City | £3,220,000 | 14 | £230,000 | 5 | 19 | -14 |
| Barnsley | £3,670,000 | 6 | £611,667 | 10 | 24 | -14 |
Now that the data has been filtered, we can see that three teams have the honour of having the biggest positive disparity between their cost rank and their final league position in the 2024/25 EFL Championship season.
The trio of Oxford, Preston and Plymouth all earned a cost ranking that was 14 positions better than their league placing.
Then again, with them all finishing in the bottom third of the table (not to mention Plymouth being relegated, the champagne may have to be put on ice for quite some time.
At the same time, Watford who found themselves recording the lowest cost per victory at £174,250 saw that number one cost ranking equate to be 13 places better off than their eventual 14th place finish.
While honourable mentions must also go to Portsmoth and Stoke who recorded eleven and ten place positive correlations between the two metrics and more importantly, both stayed in the division.
The same praise cannot be heaped on Luton and although they may have found parity between their two metrics - the only club to do so, it meant finishing 22nd in each table.
Luton serving as the example of spending gone wrong, Leeds and Burnley being the examples of spending gone right.
They may have recorded the widest disparity between their cost and league positions at 17 and 19 places respectively but with that also meaning their Premier League ticket has been punched, it is the final table that matters most.
Therefore, the rule in the Championship is largely the same as it ever was, if you are prepared to spend money, you give yourself a much greater chance of reaching the Premier League.
At the same time, spending large amounts is not necessarily a guarantee of further progress. As Ipswich showed, you can do things on the cheaper side and still reach the primary objective of English football's primary tier.
Methodology and Editorial Information
This article was researched and fact-checked by Dan Tracey who also then added the words - Dan is a multi-talented writer, data analyst and podcaster whose six-year career in the sports data sphere has seen incredible successes. From helping UEFA create their annual technical reports to writing articles for Sports Betting Websites, including sites like TheLinesUS and Goal
Data correct as of 23rd July 2025
