The Price of Victory for EFL Championship teams

With the dust now settled on the regular phase of this season’s EFL Championship campaign, it is time to look at the stories throughout nine months of arduous action and although promotion and relegation are always the main chapters, there are also plenty of other subplots.

Because with 46 matches being played by each of the 24 teams in the division, it allows analysts and number crunchers to dive into the numbers and make sense of what has just concluded.

While for those who are regular readers of our website, you may be aware of a recent analysis piece that we undertook and with the price of a Premier League victory now being calculated, we can also do the same for England’s second tier.

Not only that, but with the history books now denoting Leicester as the champions and the other 23 positions also secured after the lottery of the play-offs, we can also provide a further level of context to our findings.

Which means without further delay, here is what we have first uncovered when it comes to the pursuit of Championship glory (table sorted by transfer value)

Looking at the table above, there is one thing that arguably stands out more than most and this is the fact that two teams did not spend a single penny in transfer fees during the 2023/24 Championship season.

When you consider the largesse that is spent in the Premier League above, the fact that two clubs and well established ones at that have spent nothing in the way of transfer funds only highlights the gap between the first and second tiers of English football.

With that being said it does also show that you need to spend your way out of the division. The team that that booked their place in the 2024/25 edition of the Premier League as Championship winners were also the team that had the highest transfer expenditure.

Leicester may have spent £38.0m but then manager Enzo Maresca would say that it was worth every penny and especially when you consider the level of riches that will be unlocked with a return to the Premier League.

It cost Leicester £1.2m per league victory but considering the Championship trophy is now firmly in the King Power Stadium trophy cabinet and the likes of Manchester City and Arsenal are just around the corner, this can only be considered as shrewd investment.

While the same can be said at the St Mary's Stadium, as Southampton are also looking forward to a return to the big time. The Saints spent just over £18m last season and at £704k per league victory, this is also looking like great value. 

The biggest transformation has taken place at Portman Road, as Ipswich spent £4.8m after earning promotion from League One. That outlay would take them to an eventual second place finish in the second tier and promotion straight out of the EFL Championship at the first time of asking. That success that cost just £172k per regular season win.

TOP TO BOTTOM

While with both Leicester and Ipswich in mind, we can look at the price of victory table in a different order and if were to stack the number of wins from highest to lowest, here is what that the same data sample would look like.

Because here we can start to see more of a natural order to proceedings and with Leicester and Ipswich both earning the two automatic promotion berths, it stands to reason that they should and would also have the most wins.

While if we try to extend the hypotheses further, we can see that  the four clubs that made the play-offs would finish in the top six when it came down to outright wins. West Brom would win 21 league matches during 2023/24, it was still not enough for automatic promotion but it does come with the caveat of the Championship outfit not spending a single penny last season.

Of course, discussion regarding the Championship would not be complete without a point about Leeds and with the Elland Road outfit missing out on promotion to the Premier League in the play-off final, the Yorkshire outfit would deliver the third most league wins (27) and spend just over £30m during the 2023/24 season. This equates to outlay of £1.13m per win but now they will have to do it all over again in terms of their potential promotion tilt.

As for the other team that were also in the play-offs, Norwich also picked up 21 wins across the 2023/24 season but a top-six finish was the sole highlight for the Carrow Road. A spend of just £2.65m was miniscule by Championship levels but each of those wins was worth £126k.

Another team that made it to Wembley, albeit in the FA Cup semi-finals was Coventry. They just missed out on competing in the biggest cup game of the season and also had to make do with finishing outside of the playoffs. Mark Robins' men picked up 17 wins after the club spent a mighty £31m for Championship standards - especially if not earning promotion to go with it, each of those wins cost north of £1.8m.

FINDING THE CORRELATION

Of course, the best way to add further context to all of this, is by comparing the two tables and seeing what correlation can be found and to do that, we must rank the clubs in terms of victory cost and final league position.

To make things easier, we have removed the two teams that did not spend a single penny last season and therefore, we are just going to work with the 22 that did. In doing so, it makes it far easier to compare the cost per victory rank and league positions.

Now that the data has been filtered, we can see that there is greater cause for celebration at Portman Road. Ipswich had a cost per win rank of 17th and as we know finished second in the Championship table - giving them a positional disparity of 15 when comparing the two ranks and in terms of value for money, there was an East Anglian lockout as Norwich had the second strongest disparity.

The Canaries were ranked 19th when it comes cost per victory (highest to lowest) and finished sixth in English football's second tier. This gave them a difference of 13 places when comparing the two ranks.

Of course, a key comparitive point is how the champions of the division fared and with Leicester having the third highest cost per win rank last season, when compared to their Championship ranking of first, they were two places better off. 

One place better off than the other promoted team Southampton and with the Saints ranking fifth in terms of cost per win rank, their fourth place and eventual promotion through the playoffs saw them one place better off in terms of ranking. 

As for the horror stories at the other end of this comparitive table, it is Stoke and Huddersfield who certainly were not value for money last season.

The Potters were the second highest when it comes to cost per win at nearly £1.3m per victory, this when coupled with their eventual 17th place finish meant that their comparitive ranking was 15 places worse off.

The same value as Huddersfield who also suffered the additional igmoniny of relegation at the end of the 2023/24 season. The Terriers were eighth in terms of highest cost per win rank, this was only managed by finishing second bottom of the Championship. 

Which also draws us to the other two clubs that suffered the drop to English football's third tier at the end of last season. Rotherham were cast adrift at the bottom and after having the 15th highest cost per win rank, this means they were nine places worse off.

A sorry tale but not as bad as Birmingham City who had a terrible spell under Wayne Rooney - a spell that would play a substantial part in their eventual relegation. The Blue half of the city would have the 11th highest cost per win rank but only generated a 22nd place finish in the Championship and now the Blues must prepare for life in the third tier under their new American owners.

Therefore, the rule in the Championship is largely the same as it ever was, if you are prepared to spend money, you give yourself a much greater chance of reaching the Premier League. At the same time, spending large amounts is not necessarily a guarantee of further progress. As Ipswich showed, you can do things on the cheaper side and still reach the primary objective of English football's primary tier.

Methodology and Editorial Information

This article was researched and fact-checked by Dan Tracey who also then added the words - Dan is a multi-talented writer, data analyst and podcaster whose six-year career in the sports data sphere has seen incredible successes. From helping UEFA create their annual technical reports to writing articles for Sports Betting Websites, including sites like TheLinesUS and Goal

Data correct as of 1st August 2024