I've spent over 20 years inside the betting industry. I'll guide you to avoid the hype, ignore the noise, and steer clear of the common pitfalls that catch out everyday punters.
Measuring the True Value of Transfers in the Premier League
For all the talk about transfers in the Premier League a lot of the conversation is connected to whether such expenditure is value for money. Not only that, but how exactly does a player prove his worth.
From a forward’s point of view, we always hear the phrase “paying off a slice of their transfer fee” when they score a goal and although that is a neat soundbite for commentators to spout, there is no absolute value to a goal being netted in the Premier League.
While that value could be measured in silverware and although Jack Grealish has had his detractors since moving from Aston Villa to Manchester City for £100m, his success over the past few years has undoubtedly paid off some of the money City manager Pep Guardiola chose to splash out
Although one could argue that such success is nothing more than residual value and if a player is not actually delivering in terms of goals or assists, then those same detractors will be ready to claim a certain player is a flop.
However, we are going to go some way to measuring value once and for all and to do this, we are going to take a sample of 25 players. A sample that is taken by the players that currently have the highest transfer values within the confines of the Fantasy Premier League.(end of 2024/25 season)
From here, we are going to look at the transfer fee that was spent to help facilitate their recent move and then measure their goalscoring and goal making attributes since joining their current employers.
THE SAMPLE SQUAD
First up, we are going to reveal the 25 players that have made our Value FC and without further ado, here they are:
| Player | Club | Position | FPL Value | Transfer Fee |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haaland | Man City | Forward | 14.9 | £54,000,000 |
| M.Salah | Liverpool | Midfielder | 13.6 | £37,800,000 |
| Palmer | Chelsea | Midfielder | 10.5 | £40,000,000 |
| Saka | Arsenal | Midfielder | 10.4 | £0 |
| Son | Spurs | Midfielder | 9.7 | £27,000,000 |
| De Bruyne | Man City | Midfielder | 9.5 | £68,400,000 |
| Isak | Newcastle | Forward | 9.4 | £62,000,000 |
| Watkins | Aston Villa | Forward | 9.2 | £30,000,000 |
| Foden | Man City | Midfielder | 9.1 | £0 |
| B.Fernandes | Man Utd | Midfielder | 8.4 | £56,700,000 |
| Mbeumo | Brentford | Midfielder | 8.3 | £5,600,000 |
| Ødegaard | Arsenal | Midfielder | 8.2 | £30,000,000 |
| Bowen | West Ham | Midfielder | 7.9 | £18,300,000 |
| N.Jackson | Chelsea | Forward | 7.7 | £31,900,000 |
| Havertz | Arsenal | Forward | 7.7 | £72,000,000 |
| Luis Díaz | Liverpool | Midfielder | 7.5 | £42,000,000 |
| Mateta | Crystal Palace | Forward | 7.5 | £9,500,000 |
| Maddison | Spurs | Midfielder | 7.4 | £40,000,000 |
| Gordon | Newcastle | Midfielder | 7.4 | £40,000,000 |
| Marmoush | Man City | Forward | 7.4 | £65,000,000 |
| Solanke | Spurs | Forward | 7.3 | £55,000,000 |
| Toney | Brentford | Forward | 7.3 | £36,000,000 |
| Wood | Nottm Forest | Forward | 7.2 | £15,000,000 |
| Alexander-Arnold | Liverpool | Defender | 7.2 | £0 |
| Gakpo | Liverpool | Forward | 7.2 | £36,000,000 |
As you can see, there are a number of big money moves in our list and with the likes of Kevin De Bruyne and Kai Havertz moving to Manchester City and Arsenal for more than £65m respectively, it will be interesting to see how much value they have clawed back since their move.
Not only that, but there is three academy prospects who in theory are nothing but pure profit. The question is just how much have the trio of Bukayo Saka, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Phil Foden actually made.
THE DATA ELEMENT
| Player | Club | Position | FPL Value | Transfer Fee | Total Goals | Total Assists |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haaland | Man City | Forward | 14.9 | £54,000,000 | 85 | 17 |
| M.Salah | Liverpool | Midfielder | 13.6 | £37,800,000 | 186 | 88 |
| Palmer | Chelsea | Midfielder | 10.5 | £40,000,000 | 37 | 20 |
| Saka | Arsenal | Midfielder | 10.4 | £0 | 53 | 51 |
| Son | Spurs | Midfielder | 9.7 | £27,000,000 | 127 | 77 |
| De Bruyne | Man City | Midfielder | 9.5 | £68,400,000 | 72 | 121 |
| Isak | Newcastle | Forward | 9.4 | £62,000,000 | 54 | 10 |
| Watkins | Aston Villa | Forward | 9.2 | £30,000,000 | 75 | 36 |
| Foden | Man City | Midfielder | 9.1 | £0 | 61 | 28 |
| B.Fernandes | Man Utd | Midfielder | 8.4 | £56,700,000 | 62 | 51 |
| Mbeumo | Brentford | Midfielder | 8.3 | £5,600,000 | 42 | 30 |
| Ødegaard | Arsenal | Midfielder | 8.2 | £30,000,000 | 34 | 32 |
| Bowen | West Ham | Midfielder | 7.9 | £18,300,000 | 43 | 10 |
| N.Jackson | Chelsea | Forward | 7.7 | £31,900,000 | 24 | 10 |
| Havertz | Arsenal | Forward | 7.7 | £72,000,000 | 22 | 11 |
| Luis Díaz | Liverpool | Midfielder | 7.5 | £42,000,000 | 29 | 18 |
| Mateta | Crystal Palace | Forward | 7.5 | £9,500,000 | 38 | 9 |
| Maddison | Spurs | Midfielder | 7.4 | £40,000,000 | 13 | 17 |
| Gordon | Newcastle | Midfielder | 7.4 | £40,000,000 | 18 | 21 |
| Marmoush | Man City | Forward | 7.4 | £65,000,000 | 7 | 2 |
| Solanke | Spurs | Forward | 7.3 | £55,000,000 | 9 | 3 |
| Toney | Brentford | Forward | 7.3 | £36,000,000 | 36 | 11 |
| Wood | Nottm Forest | Forward | 7.2 | £15,000,000 | 35 | 4 |
| Alexander-Arnold | Liverpool | Defender | 7.2 | £0 | 18 | 67 |
| Gakpo | Liverpool | Forward | 7.2 | £36,000,000 | 25 | 13 |
While the next step is to then add the data regarding goals and assists by each of the 25 players and to provide extra context, we have added the season in which of the players made the move to their current team.
As you can see, there are some incredibly impressive numbers in this list and when you consider that Hueng min-Son has scored 127 Premier League goals at the time of writing, he is certainly worth tens of millions of additional pounds to Tottenham.
However, all these numbers in terms of goals or assists are lacking something rather substantial and this a financial value being attached to them. Although we cannot truly say a goal is worth ‘x’, we can assume a value for the purpose of this experiment.
Therefore, we are going to say that a goal in the Premier League is worth £500,000 and in addition to this, an assist is worth £250,000. This means now we have values for both, we can multiply them to the two metrics.
| Player | Total Goals | Total Assists | Goal Value | Assist Value | Goal Total | Assist Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haaland | 85 | 17 | £500,000 | £250,000 | £42,500,000 | £4,250,000 |
| M.Salah | 186 | 88 | £500,000 | £250,000 | £93,000,000 | £22,000,000 |
| Palmer | 37 | 20 | £500,000 | £250,000 | £18,500,000 | £5,000,000 |
| Saka | 53 | 51 | £500,000 | £250,000 | £26,500,000 | £12,750,000 |
| Son | 127 | 77 | £500,000 | £250,000 | £63,500,000 | £19,250,000 |
| De Bruyne | 72 | 121 | £500,000 | £250,000 | £36,000,000 | £30,250,000 |
| Isak | 54 | 10 | £500,000 | £250,000 | £27,000,000 | £2,500,000 |
| Watkins | 75 | 36 | £500,000 | £250,000 | £37,500,000 | £9,000,000 |
| Foden | 61 | 28 | £500,000 | £250,000 | £30,500,000 | £7,000,000 |
| B.Fernandes | 62 | 51 | £500,000 | £250,000 | £31,000,000 | £12,750,000 |
| Mbeumo | 42 | 30 | £500,000 | £250,000 | £21,000,000 | £7,500,000 |
| Ødegaard | 34 | 32 | £500,000 | £250,000 | £17,000,000 | £8,000,000 |
| Bowen | 43 | 10 | £500,000 | £250,000 | £21,500,000 | £2,500,000 |
| N.Jackson | 24 | 10 | £500,000 | £250,000 | £12,000,000 | £2,500,000 |
| Havertz | 22 | 11 | £500,000 | £250,000 | £11,000,000 | £2,750,000 |
| Luis Díaz | 29 | 18 | £500,000 | £250,000 | £14,500,000 | £4,500,000 |
| Mateta | 38 | 9 | £500,000 | £250,000 | £19,000,000 | £2,250,000 |
| Maddison | 13 | 17 | £500,000 | £250,000 | £6,500,000 | £4,250,000 |
| Gordon | 18 | 21 | £500,000 | £250,000 | £9,000,000 | £5,250,000 |
| Marmoush | 7 | 2 | £500,000 | £250,000 | £3,500,000 | £500,000 |
| Solanke | 9 | 3 | £500,000 | £250,000 | £4,500,000 | £750,000 |
| Toney | 36 | 11 | £500,000 | £250,000 | £18,000,000 | £2,750,000 |
| Wood | 35 | 4 | £500,000 | £250,000 | £17,500,000 | £1,000,000 |
| Alexander-Arnold | 18 | 67 | £500,000 | £250,000 | £9,000,000 | £16,750,000 |
| Gakpo | 25 | 13 | £500,000 | £250,000 | £12,500,000 | £3,250,000 |
In doing this, we can see that Mohamed Salah’s 186 Premier League goals is worth £93m by our metric and his 88 assists have also paid back an additional £22m. While Hueng-min Son has made £63.5m pure profit when it comes to goals for Tottenham.
While the only other player to break the £40m barrier in terms of goal revenue is Erling Haaland. The former Borussia Dortmund has almost paid off his Manchester City transfer fee in full. Another complete season and this will surely be the case.
Then again, you could look at a player such as Ollie Watkins and spot that he has already paid off his transfer fee from Brentford to Aston Villa.
A £30m move from one Premier League club to the next. The England international has already paid back a total of £37.5m after scoring 75 league goals for the Villa Park.
In addition to this, a hat tip must also go to Bryan Mbuemo. Although he is now in Manchester United colours, the reason is due to scoring exploits with Brentford.
A transfer fee of just £5.6m to bring him to West London, 42 league goals scored for Brentford. A total value of £21m.
THE BIG REVEAL
Now that we know the transfer fees of each of our 25 players and their contribution in terms of attempting to pay it back, it is time to look at the true and winners and losers when it comes to pure transfer value.
| Player | Transfer Fee | Total Goals | Total Assists | Goal Total | Assist Total | Total Contribution | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Salah | £37,800,000 | 186 | 88 | £93,000,000 | £22,000,000 | £115,000,000 | £77,200,000 |
| Son | £27,000,000 | 127 | 77 | £63,500,000 | £19,250,000 | £82,750,000 | £55,750,000 |
| Saka | £0 | 53 | 51 | £26,500,000 | £12,750,000 | £39,250,000 | £39,250,000 |
| Foden | £0 | 61 | 28 | £30,500,000 | £7,000,000 | £37,500,000 | £37,500,000 |
| Alexander-Arnold | £0 | 18 | 67 | £9,000,000 | £16,750,000 | £25,750,000 | £25,750,000 |
| Mbeumo | £5,600,000 | 42 | 30 | £21,000,000 | £7,500,000 | £28,500,000 | £22,900,000 |
| Watkins | £30,000,000 | 75 | 36 | £37,500,000 | £9,000,000 | £46,500,000 | £16,500,000 |
| Mateta | £9,500,000 | 38 | 9 | £19,000,000 | £2,250,000 | £21,250,000 | £11,750,000 |
| Bowen | £18,300,000 | 43 | 10 | £21,500,000 | £2,500,000 | £24,000,000 | £5,700,000 |
| Wood | £15,000,000 | 35 | 4 | £17,500,000 | £1,000,000 | £18,500,000 | £3,500,000 |
| De Bruyne | £68,400,000 | 72 | 121 | £36,000,000 | £30,250,000 | £66,250,000 | -£2,150,000 |
| Ødegaard | £30,000,000 | 34 | 32 | £17,000,000 | £8,000,000 | £25,000,000 | -£5,000,000 |
| Haaland | £54,000,000 | 85 | 17 | £42,500,000 | £4,250,000 | £46,750,000 | -£7,250,000 |
| B.Fernandes | £56,700,000 | 62 | 51 | £31,000,000 | £12,750,000 | £43,750,000 | -£12,950,000 |
| Toney | £36,000,000 | 36 | 11 | £18,000,000 | £2,750,000 | £20,750,000 | -£15,250,000 |
| Palmer | £40,000,000 | 37 | 20 | £18,500,000 | £5,000,000 | £23,500,000 | -£16,500,000 |
| N.Jackson | £31,900,000 | 24 | 10 | £12,000,000 | £2,500,000 | £14,500,000 | -£17,400,000 |
| Gakpo | £36,000,000 | 25 | 13 | £12,500,000 | £3,250,000 | £15,750,000 | -£20,250,000 |
| Luis Díaz | £42,000,000 | 29 | 18 | £14,500,000 | £4,500,000 | £19,000,000 | -£23,000,000 |
| Gordon | £40,000,000 | 18 | 21 | £9,000,000 | £5,250,000 | £14,250,000 | -£25,750,000 |
| Maddison | £40,000,000 | 13 | 17 | £6,500,000 | £4,250,000 | £10,750,000 | -£29,250,000 |
| Isak | £62,000,000 | 54 | 10 | £27,000,000 | £2,500,000 | £29,500,000 | -£32,500,000 |
| Solanke | £55,000,000 | 9 | 3 | £4,500,000 | £750,000 | £5,250,000 | -£49,750,000 |
| Havertz | £72,000,000 | 22 | 11 | £11,000,000 | £2,750,000 | £13,750,000 | -£58,250,000 |
| Marmoush | £65,000,000 | 7 | 2 | £3,500,000 | £500,000 | £4,000,000 | -£61,000,000 |
While the player who has offered the most in terms of transfer payment is Mohamed Salah. The Liverpool forward joined from Roma for a fee of £37.8m, the Egyptian has measured to generate three times that when looking at league goals and assists.
£93m generated from his goals, £22m from his assists. There are moves that can be considered as excellent value for money and then there is Salah's switch to Liverpool.
This accumulation of goals and assists has generated an overall profit of £77.2m for Liverpool - more than £20m higher than the next positive payout on our list.
Second in the rankings goes to Heung min-Son and with the now former Tottenham forward having scored 127 league goals for the North London outfit and a total of 77 assists for good measure. His £27m fee from Bayer Leverkusen has been turned into a positive difference of £55.75m.
Moving on from the top two, the next three on the list are the players that will be generating pure profit for their clubs.
Bukayo Saka has offered a total contribution of £39.25m since becoming an Arsenal professional, his 53 goals and 51 assists.
That sizeable contribution places him just ahead of Phil Foden in fourth as the Manchester City star has contributed 61 goals and 28 assists at a combined value of £37.5m.
That tally is more than enough to push Trent Alexander-Arnold into fifth place and with the now Real Madrid defender leaving Liverpool with 18 goals and 67 assists to his name, the former academy prospect generated a pure profit of £25.75m for his previous employers.
Rounding out the top ten are the only remaining players who have paid their debts to the clubs they play for. Bryan Mbeumo leaves Brentford having generated £22.9m profit, another former Bee Ollie Watkins has put Aston Villa £16.5m better off.
Another player who has been valuable for his club over the past few seasons is Jean-Philippe Mateta at Crystal Palace.
Signed for just £9.5m, the recent FA Cup winner has scored 38 league goals and created nine assists. a contribution worth £21.25m to the Eagles and subsequently generating them £11.75m.
Ninth in the list is West Ham's Jarrod Bowen. Signed for £18.3m, his 43 goals and 10 assists have been worth £24m to the Hammers and this also means a profit of £5.7m - £2.2m more than that of Chris Wood at Nottingham Forest.
At the other end of the scale, it does not make good reading for Omar Marmoush at Manchester City. Then again, it would be fair to add a caveat to the former Bundesliga hitman.
Signed in the January 2025 window for £65m, his seven goals and two assists are only worth £4m and although a loss of £61m may be hard to stomach for Manchester City, you get the feeling this will be paid off considerably over time.
While Arsenal will be hoping that Kai Havertz can start to pay more of the £72m that was required to prise him from Chelsea.
The German international has been hampered by injury and this has meant 22 goals and 11 assists to date - a contribution worth £13.75m in total.
Unfortunately, this currently means a £58.25m loss for the Gunners and nearly £10m more than the £49.75m that Tottenham need to claw back after the signature of Dominic Solanke from Bournemouth.
Rounding off the analsysis and it would be unfair to overlook the contribution of Kevin De Bruyne at Manchester City after his move to Napoli in the summer.
The Belgian midfield maestro was signed from Wolfsburg for £68.4m and his time at the Etihad he would go on score 72 goals and 121 assists.
By the metrics set out, it would actually generate an overall contribution of £66.25m and also meaning an overall loss of £2.15m.
However, when you look at the number of trophies that De Bruyne helped deliver to the Etihad, there can be absolutely no doubt that his move constituted incredibly good value for money.
Data correct as of end of 2024/25 Premier League season.
