Neil Joyce Exclusive Interview

Mason Mount’s £60m fee will be worth it even though he had a year left on contract and Daniel Levy would sell Harry Kane if he knew they wouldn’t finish top-four

Speaking to OLBG, Joyce said he doesn’t think the Saudi Pro League will threaten the Premier League and talks through Manchester United’s potential budget if the Qataris take over

Neil Joyce, a leading voice in the world of football finance, provides insight into some of the biggest deals and trends in the sport today. From Mason Mount's £60m transfer to the future impact of the Saudi Pro League on the Premier League, Joyce elucidates these topics and more exclusively to OLBG. An expert who has been actively involved in sponsor ROI calculation, Joyce further discusses the increasing focus on direct marketing strategies and the changing engagement dynamics between football clubs and big brands. With insiders detailing the financial potential and strategies of clubs like Manchester United, this in-depth interview offers a wealth of fascinating insights you won't want to miss.

Q. How does a sponsor get return on investment from having their brand on a football shirt?

NJ: “We have been engaged with sponsors and other big brands to help them determine the ROI and track the allocation of their investments, particularly across sports sponsorship. The starting point is still very much around the number of eyeballs you could get and the focus was very much centered around brand awareness and enhancing media efficacy.

“Football teams are very well versed in putting together amazing sales packs that focus on reach and engagement, combining social media figures and TV audiences, and if you’re looking to spend brand money as a sponsor this would be appealing.

“Now sponsors are starting to look at things differently. The questions we ask of clubs and brands is, to sponsor X or Y, how many sales is that going to help you generate? That is a very different conversation to the traditional conversations held before. As the shift in focus on sponsors is to encompass wider through the funnel metrics and the adoption of a direct marketer, the emphasis on clubs to provide enhanced insight and measurement is starting to become more apparent. 

“Particularly if the CFO is engaged in these conversations and are demanding ROI, in the shape of sales, number of app installs, registrations and so on.”

Q. Does the increased visibility through social media help with sponsorship targets?

NJ: “Social media helps brands in terms of the reach, which is the metric you will get. Benchmark published some stats on Real Madrid having the biggest social media following, followed by Barcelona and then Man Utd. Those touch points are being laid out in performance feedback. 

“They know the Premier League gets an audience of X, and of which Chelsea and Liverpool get Y. I don’t think it generates the ROI metric, or measurement capability a sponsor necessarily wants or needs. 

“Then they do  survey data around brand recall, questions like, “are you more likely to buy this product now you have seen it on a Premier League shirt?” -  But these are soft metrics, not the hard metrics a CFO really wants.”

Q. Overall, is the sponsorship model proving successful for brands?

NJ: “As you watch how much money these brands spend on TV advertising, you can see that it's mass marketing, but it's becoming far more addressible, such as smart TVs with targeted ads.. I think there’s increased capabilities for sponsorship to operate in the same way people have used in advertising. If you are a brand looking at through-the-funnel performance, I think sponsorship is really difficult to justify. 

“You ask the constant questions of: How many leads does it generate?  How does it reduce your cost per acquisition? Are you spending money to target an audience who are never going to buy your product? And how valuable is that audience to you? 

“At CLV we’re often asked to look into “Lifetime value” as a metric.  If you measure the effectiveness of sponsorship above the line, i.e. where you have a brand that no one knows with the aim to get out there, or you're a market leader and you want to defend your share, you may want to be on Liverpool’s shirt or Arsenal’s and not on Burnley’s due to greater visibility from being in European competition.

“When it comes to sponsorship, there are a lot of benefits you can’t measure.  For example, CEOs in the US used to say that if they didn't see their brand on a billboard in Time Square, they would be upset, because they didn't want to see their competitor there instead.”

Why are betting brands so dominant in football sponsorship?

NJ: “Betting brands are in an ultra-competitive marketplace, for one. There is also a direct correlation between football fans and gambling. Betting brands want to promote that they have the best odds, because betting is based on that. Equally they want to saturate the share of eyeballs to drive fans to their site. They look at sponsorship  as a traffic generator to  their website or driving a fan to bet through them.  

“The goal for them is, how do you get fans to gamble responsibly on a Saturday whilst increasing new customer deposits? Having a logo on a shirt helps reinforce the best odds or get your logo out there. It’s sensitive to odds and it’s ultra competitive, but they have the data that shows it helps them acquire fans and also communicate effectively at scale the need for responsible gambling.”

Why don’t more traditional, non-betting brands want to outbid them?

NJ: “There’s a level of prestige with certain clubs that you have that brand association with. It may also be that you want to go after a different audience. They  could have a product that hasn’t naturally tied itself to a certain group, or maybe it’s a credit card that hasn’t yet tied itself to an affluent group.. They might launch more of a mainstream credit card to target more of the masses. So sponsorship may be a way to reach the younger demographic you are looking at.”

Can you name me any success stories in sponsorship, or any that didn’t work?

NJ: “Spotify have basically got a more competitive deal with Barcelona, because Barcelona didn’t have the quantifiable asset in terms of fanbase that they quoted, because they quoted their social media stats. hen Spotify wanted to reach and engage with that audience, the numbers didn’t match and weren’t as high. Since the data indicated that Spotify had a much stronger user base and insights on them vs Barcelona, it meant that they had a stronger point of leveraging in the negotiations.

“The power of having data and scalable fan targeting, insights and measurement data is clear,  a warning to a lot of clubs that the market is moving with a sophisticated brand like Spotify.

“There is a lot of talk around how successful Chevrolet and General Motors were for Manchester United. From the initial analysis of why the deal was signed, was based upon the reach Manchester United could provide across Europe and Asia to line up with Chevrolet and GM’s objectives to both increase visibility and sales in their non-US markets.

“Going back to our earlier conversation around brand awareness and media efficacy, this deal would have been very appealing. Whether it ultimately could help GM and Chevrolet penetrate highly competitive markets is up for debate, but the logic behind the deal stacks up. 

 “At an individual level, you look at Brylcreem with David Beckham, who then goes and shaves his hair off. So sponsors have to do a lot of due diligence as there’s  a lot  of external factors to take into account in sponsorship.”

Q. Manchester United have just signed Mason Mount for £60m. In any era that’s a lot of money, but especially so given he had a year left on his contract. Bayern also think Harry Kane is worth a lot of money despite a year left on his contract. Are these fees really worth it when you could get someone free in a year?

NJ: “Mason Mount is interesting, as he should have the best performance levels ahead of him and clearly Erik Ten Hag has identified him as a critical talent to improve Manchester United’s performances on the pitch. If the team is successful and he plays a role in doing it, i.e. winning the Champions League or qualifying for it, then his transfer fee is negligible in comparison.

“Economically, if you spread his fee and contract over the course of it, they shouldn’t need to sell too many Mount jerseys to deliver some positivity out of it. Commercially, Mount has proven highly marketable with the high levels of reach and brand association he has brought “Sure”.

“I think Bayern with Harry Kane is different. It’s an interesting move for all involved, they (Bayern) don’t have a huge fan base outside of Germany, so does Kane help them with that appeal? There are clear US fan supporters of Kane and Tottenham, so there is a chance they follow Kane to his next team, but could also be converted to Tottenham by now.e.

“For a 30-year-old, who’s maybe got two to three years in him, it’s interesting. Do Bayern need him to win the Bundesliga? They have proven they can do it year after year already..

Does he help them win the Champions League? 

“That’s where incremental matchday, bonuses and prize money based ROI would come in. But I don’t think he’d help them do that… Whilst there continues to be lots of optionality and debate on Kane’s next move, it would be difficult for any club buying him to look beyond Champions League revenue qualification revenue lift and or winning it.”

Champions League Betting Odds

UEFA Champions League 2023/24 16 May @ 16:39 - Win Tournament
Real Madrid	1.30
Borussia Dortmund	3.50

Q. Is Daniel Levy really in a position where Harry Kane, for just one year is worth more than £100m?

NJ: “If Daniel Levy knew Tottenham wouldn't qualify for the Champions League even with Harry Kane, then I think he would sell, as they have a high level of debt against the new stadium. 

“With the popularity of Kane to the Tottenham fan base in tact and the relative on pitch instability of the last two years, Levy is not going to sell to a rival in the UK…unless there is such a premium presented that he cannot say no to it….imagine the Qataris buying Man Utd and suddenly increasing Ten Hag’s budget through wiping out debt and moving players on in an expedited fashion…

“Levy will be thinking, let’s gamble on Kane. We might get £80m now, but if he gets us into the Champions League, that’s worth significant revenue, even at the group stages. And he might be thinking will Kane want to leave if he’s playing the Champions League next year? It’s a very fine line and I wouldn’t want to be making that decision.”

Q. Now Manchester United have signed Mount, amid the takeover speculation, are they going to have the funds for a striker and a goalkeeper?

NJ: “I think Manchester United will have the funds for a goalkeeper and striker despite signing Mason Mount. They have been quoted saying they have £120m net spend in terms of incomings and outgoings being balanced. Mount for £55m, they are probably not paying all of that up front, so they can get the striker and goalkeeper with a couple of players being moved on.. 

“You can look at what they can sell, too. You only have to sell Dean Henderson, Fred and one other and you’ve generated £50m to £60m. Additionally, if the takeover happens, and if it’s the Qataris, they’re going to clear the debt which means there’s another £50m available. Taking everything into account, they probably have the best part of £200m to spend but there has to be outgoings and FFP improved by the Qataris wiping out the debt.”

Q. If the Qataris did take over the club, why wouldn’t they have more than that?

NJ: “The Qataris wouldn’t be able to spend however they like because of FFP. That’s where it is right now, they can’t do a Roman Abramovich or the levels of investment seen at Manchester City. Things have changed since then.”

Q. Does getting Cristiano Ronaldo and David de Gea off the wage bill translate into more transfer funds?

NJ: “By getting Cristiano Ronaldo and David de Gea off the wage bill, you’re going to clear £900k a week. Rashford is going to sign a contract that is close to what De Gea was on, and the wage bill will increase because of qualifying for the Champions League. But that’s going to leave them up by around £500k, and that’s probably two decent players on £250k each.”

Q. Saudi Arabia continues to attract more players. Will they be a threat to the Premier League and Europe’s other elite leagues?

NJ: “Saudi Arabia will not be a threat to the Premier League. It will be interesting to see the knock on effect on transfer fees and their salaries however.

“You have the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A and Bundesliga. There are also a lot of leagues battling for positions within it as well. Saudi Arabia has benefited from the Ronaldo effect and they were banking on Messi to go there as well, but he hasn't and that is why they’re casting their net far and wide.

“Their objective is to be the best league in Asia and crack the top 10 leagues in the world. It is a smart objective and I don't see why it can't be achieved. They've done that, not by just bringing in the Ronaldo's and the Messi's of the world - but by signing players like Ruben Neves. There’s also rumours of some Chelsea, Manchester United and Liverpool players that aren’t even at the end of their careers, which will boost the league’s popularity and success.” 

Q. Could you provide an example?

NJ: “Take Neves for example, look at the transfer fee and everything else involved - you realise that if he was to stay out there for a couple of years, he will still be able to make a lot of money while being in the prime years of his career. I think it will put pressure on the Premier League Clubs to have better incentives for players in terms of wages. The rise of the Saudi League and these lucrative contract offers could worry the Premier League in that sense. On the flip side, the incoming transfer fees for these players from the Saudi clubs could provide a source of incremental premium transfer fees for the Premier League clubs.”

Q. What’s different about Saudi Arabia compared to China, Russia and the MLS - who all previously attempted to wrestle footballers from the Premier League?

NJ: “Saudi Arabia hasn't done a lot differently to the likes of China, Russia and the MLS approaches. They have targeted the big names like Ronaldo while the MLS have secured Messi. The battle between the MLS and Saudi League for the next “major” league to emerge will be interesting to see play out.What I can take from this is that the growth of sport is huge there - not just on the back of the World Cup.

“We are a data and insights company and have identified 30 million fans of Premier League teams in the Middle East. They want to build with and engage Premier League teams as well as spend money. The Saudi teams should look into engaging with fans as well, and that way they may be able to install multi-club ownership deals. Equally the US has nearly 90m soccer fans, with a high % of those supporting the Champions League and EPL…44% of those are undecided on which team to support, which is a huge opportunity for the larger european clubs to identify those fans, engage with them outside of the traditional matchday fan propositions and convert them to spend directly with them to the tune of £330m+ for the largest european teams.”

Q. Is Financial Fair Play working?

NJ: “Some clubs are sticking to Financial Fair Play, but I think there are some that have been playing the system for a while now.

“Stronger regulation of the game is something that people have been wanting for a really long time. It's going to take one of the regulating bodies to start coming down hard on multiple clubs for new rules to start taking effect on players.

“Clubs need to look at other ways to increase their revenues as well. Think about movies. Tom Cruise says he wants £70 million for a movie, he gets it because they know he can sell that many tickets.

“I think taking that model into the game of football can work. Putting strategy into the media and entertainment side of things, for example when selling merchandise - we would be selling products to people in Saudi Arabia and the US who would possibly never come to a game.

“We have seen that just from 12 European Clubs, there is a billion dollar revenue opportunity that they’re leaving on the table in the US, India and the Middle east alone. If they can capture the fans over there and tap into and monetise that market, they can reward the loyalty of the fans who enter the stadium.”

Q. Will the gap between the top of the Premier League and the rest of the table grow, at this rate?

NJ: “At the moment, Man City are currently at the top of the table on their own. You have then four or five teams, maybe six. You then have another set with teams like Aston Villa, West Ham and Fulham followed by the teams who will categorically be at the bottom.

“The only team that will compete with City at the moment is Manchester United in terms of their global brand and the money they can generate. It is them, Real Madrid and Barcelona who have the largest fan bases as well as the most untapped revenue potential.

“Manchester City don't have that reach globally, despite their wonderful performances on the pitch as well as their marketing. They are also starting to capture some of the US fan base as a result of this. That type of legacy branding is also there.”

Q. What commercial impact are you expecting Lionel Messi to have on Inter Miami and the MLS?

NJ: “In terms of commercial impact, Lionel Messi's transfer took Inter Miami's social media following from 1 million to 10 million in the space of a week. With that, they will get more arrivals and engagement due to the draw of Lionel Messi. You also have the general Messi in the MLS, look at his impact on PSG, the untapped market was so huge for them. Without Messi, they’re still a fantastic French club, but with Messi they have that brand and global appeal.

“It would be interesting to see how PSG's revenue will be impacted without Messi in the squad.”