How Much Difference Does The Jockey Make?

Jockey Questions When Considering A Bet

For many punters the best horse is always going to win the race and the jockey shouldn't make too much difference but that's actually rarely the case. 

Would the same punters say that the driver doesn't make too much difference in Formula 1?

The leading bookmakers with their wealth of stable contacts will certainly keep specific jockeys onside, especially at the major meetings. 

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The Jockey Evidence

It was a race at Lingfield that inspired me to look more into jockeys. 

The race was a 10f handicap in which a horse I had been following, Robin Hoods Bay, won under Ryan Moore. 

Robin Hoods Bay had won in November and then run well without winning from a higher mark in three subsequent handicaps, never beaten more than 1.5 lengths. 

He didn't look badly handicapped but certainly didn't look well handicapped either, until Ryan Moore took the riding duties for the first time and won cosily by 1.25 lengths. 

The race didn't look any weaker than the three previous races so it seems Ryan Moore was able to bring about a significant improvement from the horse.

At the start of year, many of the top jockeys return to the all-weather in order to get ‘race fit' in time for the flat turf season, there will then be opportunity's to back the better jockeys against poorer jockeys on the Polytrack or Fibresand.  

Let's use Ryan Moore as an example. 

His all-weather record in selected years was as follows:

Ryan Moore

Now those stats don't look amazing and I'm certainly not saying back all his rides but I'm sure that compared favourably with the next two ‘average' all-weather jockeys I am going to pick at random.

Let's take  a decent jockey who is regularly on the all-weather in Shane Kelly

Shane Kelly

Here is the record for what is considered one of the best all-weather jockeys in Luke Morris.

Luke Morris

You can see the difference the booking of a top jockey makes to the win %.

Jockeys need to be a major consideration when you start your daily horse racing form study.

Now, of course, jockeys like Ryan Moore get booked on the best horses, and their rides tend to go off at shorter prices but they can make the difference between you losing and winning your bet. 

What This Means

Now I realise all I have done there is highlight the fact that Ryan Moore is a more successful and has a better strike rate than Shane Kelly or Luke Morris. 

Hardly groundbreaking, but my point is that the better jockeys will get more out of horses that are averagely handicapped.

During the winter the all-weather horses have been largely ridden by the average all-weather jockeys.

When they have bigger meetings especially at Wolverhampton and Lingfield don't be surprised to see some seemingly unlikely improvement from certain horses when the top jockeys get on board.

This can be less of a factor when the flat turf season is in full swing, the bigger meetings are populated by the bigger jockeys and in many cases a very well handicapped horse ridden by Rob Hornby will beat a pretty well-handicapped horse ridden by Ryan Moore .

However we've seen jockeys like Richard Hughes dominate smaller meetings, on October 15th 2012 Richard Hughes rode 7 out of 8 winners at Windsor, a meeting that most top jockeys ignored.

His biggest priced winner was 7/1 so some might argue he was entitled to win all of those races but it is hard to argue that his talent didn't give him as much of an edge in those races as the horses' ability.

So DON'T just back the top jockeys blindly, even at smaller meetings, but DO upgrade the chances of their mounts as one or two top jockeys amongst average jockeys should have a major advantage.

Responsible Gambling

However you choose your selections please make sure you gamble responsibly, the following articles were created with this in mind. 

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Editorial Information

OLBG betting expert Andy Powell created this article with recent updates by Nigel Skinner another of the OLBG experts. 

Andy Powell

Expert Guide

I’ve been writing major event previews for OLBG since 2005, covering everything from Cheltenham and Royal Ascot to Formula 1 and NHL. Over the years, I’ve learned that without the right analysis, most bets are just guesswork.

That’s why I focus on helping you see the bigger picture.
I break down key stats, trends, and long-term patterns to give you a clearer view of the race, match, or event. I don’t do tips. I guide you through the information that actually matters.

I use my own custom racing ratings system to identify angles that might otherwise go unnoticed. Whether you’re into motorsport, horse racing, or top-level ice hockey, I highlight the important stuff.

You need clear, reliable insight, and that’s what I’m here to give you.

"The right information won’t guarantee a win, but it can change how you play the game."

Nigel Skinner

Expert Guide

Political betting and football’s next manager markets are unpredictable, but that doesn’t mean you should go in blind. I specialise in these fast-moving, often volatile markets, helping you understand the signals, patterns, and pitfalls before placing a bet.

In political betting, it’s rarely just about polling numbers.
Momentum, media sentiment and timing all matter. I track the shifts and break down the info to help you spot where the value might be hiding.

In football, next manager odds can move fast on rumour alone.
That’s why I focus on context, boardroom dynamics, contract clauses, media leaks, the kind of detail that affects odds.

I’m here to give you a clearer view of the landscape, so you can bet smarter on two of the most reactive markets in betting.

"When the market moves on headlines, you need more than instinct. That’s where I come in."