How Much Difference Does The Jockey Make?

The jockey is an important part of a horse race but how much of our decision to back a horse should revolve around who will be riding it? Is the jockey as important to the race as other factors?
How Much Difference Does The Jockey Make?
Andy Powell
Andy Powell Content Editor

Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.

The jockey plays an important part, but how much of our horse racing betting decisions should we attribute to the man or woman on board the horse?

Below is the PJA Jockey of the Year table since 2010.

YearNH Jockey Of The YearFlat Jockey Of The Year
2023/24Harry CobdenWilliam Buick
2022/23Brian HughesWilliam Buick
2021/22Brian HughesOisin Murphy
2020/21Harry SkeltonOisin Murphy
2019/20Brian HughesOisin Murphy
2018/19Richard JohnsonSilvestre De Sousa
2017/18Richard JohnsonSilvestre De Sousa
2016/17Richard JohnsonJim Crowley
2015/16Richard JohnsonSilvestre De Sousa
2014/15AP McCoyRichard Hughes

As you can see the same jockeys won numerous times whilst riding at the peak of their careers. 

The current Jockey Championship (Summer 2024) shows the following names at the head of the table.

NH JockeyWinsRidesPercentageFlat JockeyWinsRidesPercentage
Harry Skelton3412427%Oisin Murphy8336823%
Sean Bowen3420017%William Buick5425421%
Henry Brooke2210521%Rossa Ryan5429918%
Jack Tudor188521%Tom Marquand4831015%
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Jockey Questions When Considering A Bet

For many punters the best horse is always going to win the race and the jockey shouldn't make too much difference but that's actually rarely the case. 

Would the same punters say that the driver doesn't make too much difference in Formula 1?

The leading bookmakers with their wealth of stable contacts will certainly keep specific jockeys onside, especially at the major meetings. 

William Buick
In the PJA Jockey Championship 2023 William Buick rode 135 winners, well clear of his main rivals Oisin Murphy (106) and Rossa Ryan (104).
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The Jockey Evidence

It was a race at Lingfield that inspired me to look more into jockeys. 

The race was a 10f handicap in which a horse I had been following, Robin Hoods Bay, won under Ryan Moore. 

Robin Hoods Bay had won in November and then run well without winning from a higher mark in three subsequent handicaps, never beaten more than 1.5 lengths. 

Horsepower
The BBC documentary Horsepower shows what it means to a jockey (Oisin Murphy) in winning big races.

He didn't look badly handicapped but certainly didn't look well handicapped either, until Ryan Moore took the riding duties for the first time and won cosily by 1.25 lengths. 

The race didn't look any weaker than the three previous races so it seems Ryan Moore was able to bring about a significant improvement from the horse.

At the start of year, many of the top jockeys return to the all-weather in order to get ‘race fit' in time for the flat turf season, there will then be opportunity's to back the better jockeys against poorer jockeys on the Polytrack or Fibresand.  

Let's use Ryan Moore as an example. 

His all-weather record in selected years was as follows:

Ryan Moore

CourseRecordWin %
Kempton18/8920%
Lingfield22/7729%
Wolverhampton5/1631%
Newcastle1/250%

Now those stats don't look amazing and I'm certainly not saying back all his rides but I'm sure that compared favourably with the next two ‘average' all-weather jockeys I am going to pick at random.

Let's take  a decent jockey who is regularly on the all-weather in Shane Kelly

Shane Kelly

CourseRecordWin %
Kempton23/4785%
Lingfield36/3979%
Wolverhampton37/4059%
Newcastle0/160%

Here is the record for what is considered one of the best all-weather jockeys in Luke Morris.

Luke Morris

CourseRecordWin %
Kempton76/8419%
Lingfield97/81012%
Wolverhampton125/103412%
Newcastle45/37812%

You can see the difference the booking of a top jockey makes to the win %.

Jockeys need to be a major consideration when you start your daily horse racing form study.

Now, of course, jockeys like Ryan Moore get booked on the best horses, and their rides tend to go off at shorter prices but they can make the difference between you losing and winning your bet. 

What This Means

Now I realise all I have done there is highlight the fact that Ryan Moore is a more successful and has a better strike rate than Shane Kelly or Luke Morris. 

Hardly groundbreaking, but my point is that the better jockeys will get more out of horses that are averagely handicapped.

Horse Racing Bets
You can upgrade a horses % chance based on the jockey who has been booked by the trainer.

During the winter the all-weather horses have been largely ridden by the average all-weather jockeys.

When they have bigger meetings especially at Wolverhampton and Lingfield don't be surprised to see some seemingly unlikely improvement from certain horses when the top jockeys get on board.

This can be less of a factor when the flat turf season is in full swing, the bigger meetings are populated by the bigger jockeys and in many cases a very well handicapped horse ridden by Rob Hornby will beat a pretty well-handicapped horse ridden by Ryan Moore .

Ranking By Jockey
Why not test rating a race by the ranking of a jockey and see how many winners you back.

However we've seen jockeys like Richard Hughes dominate smaller meetings, on October 15th 2012 Richard Hughes rode 7 out of 8 winners at Windsor, a meeting that most top jockeys ignored.

His biggest priced winner was 7/1 so some might argue he was entitled to win all of those races but it is hard to argue that his talent didn't give him as much of an edge in those races as the horses' ability.

So DON'T just back the top jockeys blindly, even at smaller meetings, but DO upgrade the chances of their mounts as one or two top jockeys amongst average jockeys should have a major advantage.

Responsible Gambling

However you choose your selections please make sure you gamble responsibly, the following articles were created with this in mind. 

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Editorial Information

OLBG betting expert Andy Powell created this article with recent updates by Nigel Skinner another of the OLBG experts. 

Andy Powell

Andy Powell

Content Editor

Andy has contributed to OLBG since 2005 and has been covering racing trends for several years looking to find betting angles in the big races both in the UK and abroad, He has an interest in numerous sports for which he manages many of our event previews, particularly horse racing, providing trends and stats looking for betting strategies.

πŸ‘¨β€πŸ« Specialist SubjectsπŸ”¬πŸ“š

πŸ‡ Andy was part of an independent team of horse racing punters including Steve Madgwick, who developed a bespoke horse racing rating system in the early 2000s. Andy has meticulously continued to rate every runner and collect results from every race every day since. When it comes to horse racing and numbers Andy is our man. 

⚽ He remains a staunch Ipswich Town football fan and never misses a game, gaining a deep knowledge of the English Football League. 

🏎️🏁 Outside of horse racing and football, Andy also enjoys spending his weekends following Formula 1. His dedication is such that he doesn't mind setting alarms for odd hours to catch both qualifying sessions and the races. 

🏈 πŸ’ Parallel to these interests, Andy also possesses a keen interest in American sports with a particular affinity for the NFL and the NHL. He follows the Pittsburgh Penguins, emphasizing his broad palette for diversified sporting events.

Nigel Skinner

Nigel Skinner

Blog Content Manager

Nigel is one of OLBG's senior editors with 19 years of industry experience. Today he specialises in researching and writing about the betting angles to political and mainstream news stories and being the OLBG in-house expert on 'next football manager' betting markets.

Specialist SubjectsπŸ”¬πŸ“š

βš½οΈπŸ‘¨β€πŸ’Ό Nigel is an Arsenal fan first and foremost but has an unrivalled knowledge of English football managers at every level. Meticulously putting together our Next Manager articles, Nigel can quite possibly name you every manager of every club in the land, not to mention a pretty good eye for predicting replacements when changes happen. 

πŸ“ˆπŸ“ŠπŸ“‰ A long-time exchange trader and spread betting fan, Nigel is our go-to for advice on the subjects and uses them daily in his own betting activity. 

πŸ—³οΈπŸ’Ό Finally, Nigel loves his politics and [some would say] has an unhealthy interest in the day-to-day events in the UK's political landscape, contributing to all our Political betting content and new pieces.

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