2:10 York Tips

American Affair won very easily on reappearance, and has only gone up 4 pounds for that. I'm expecting the pace to collapse here, as there is so much pace. This horse will be in the perfect position to take advantage of this. I'm not sure if stall 16 is good here, but it looks like there's pace everywhere.

Shagraan has to shoulder top weight here, but he was really progressive as a 3-year-old last season, winning twice and placing (including extra places) a further four times in competitive handicaps. That saw his mark rise to 101, which was the same as his reappearance third when just 0.5L back on seasonal return and just 3lbs higher than when fifth here at the Ebor meeting on his only visit to York. He was the only one of the top six to race off the pace that day, meaning it can be massively upgraded. There's so much pace on offer here that there's the potential for a real burn-up, and his likely hold-up tactics can bear fruit. Now a 4-year-old, I think he can show himself to be a pattern performer at sprinting trips.

The 4yo was a winner of a 28-runner handicap at Royal Ascot last year on fast ground. Big Return ran three weeks ago, after a 6-month break, beaten under a length in a decent handicap - posting a big RPR rating. Room for improvement after that run.

The model I run suggests Fine Wine is the value bet here and could cause a surprise. This result has largely been driven by Fine Wine having the joint highest RPR of the field and the second lowest official ranking. This means Fine Wine lines up with the least amount of weight to carry in this large 18-horse race. Aiden Brookes is one of the few claiming jockeys on the card and is picking up the reins of Fine Wine. He relieves 3 lbs of weight with his claim. The stall draw of 17 is really not helpful but looks more than baked into the price at 21s. A good 3rd 13 days ago and is a prior course and distance winner here at York over 5f.

The best form of Toca Madera has been on good to firm and firm going and he should be suited by conditions at York and should be in the first five home with Tommie Jakes taking off five pounds allowance.

Mondammej knows this track very well but has surprisingly never won a race here. He's a horse which comes off the pace, which is the profile I'm looking for here. He's down to a mark of 80 and showed promise on the All-Weather. Place shout at these odds.