3:50 Worcester Tips

Awkward under pressure, aided by sole rival falling late won a novice hurdle at Ffos Las by 24| last time; steadily progressive and 3-3 over hurdles; trainer in form; can continue unbeaten run off lenient opening mark. Was declined an NR yesterday and entered here today so connections must think it has a better chance here.

Handicapper has given him a chance. Down to a mark of 117. With the jockey taking off a further 7lbs with his claim. He's yet to get his head in front in handicap company over hurdles. He did win a handicap over fences however. And looks on a nice enough mark here. Having won that handicap off a 3lbs higher mark than this. He's won both runs at this venue. Both over track and trip. The most recent win he won a novice hurdle race in a hack canter. With 17L back to the 2nd placed horse. He's got plenty in his favour here. Admittedly the fav looks the one to beat. But I think this lad is a viable alternative should the short fav fluff his lines.

The model I run suggests Scintillante can cause an upset and win this one. Scintillante lines up here with a comparable RPR to the rest of the 7 runner field but goes out carrying significantly less weight over this 2m 4f rond trip. the weight differential is 1 stone 7 lbs to top weight Heretoeternity and a similar margin to Sir Galahad who lines up here having won a string of recent results and is the in form horse. Scintillante is a prior course and distance winner, and was a reasonable 3rd when last out only 13 days ago. Now lines up at favoured left hand track again, and looks to cause an upset at a well suited course that favours front runners or those up near the front who can settle near the race pace. If this race is run at pace you'd expect the weight gap to be too big and in that scenario 8.5s looks the good value bet. Model has issued a 'very low' stake indicator predominently due to the small gap back to second in the race simulation. This translates to a 0.5pt bet on a scale of 0-4.