3:15 Epsom Downs Tips

Botanical has been running well in defeat in Listed races and has been dropped a couple of pounds by the handicapper. Epsom is a track where top weights do well due to the undulating, turning nature of the track and horses can never get up to top speeds. With Ryan Moore booked you would hope he has a great chance.

My marginally strongest fancy of the day comes in the form of MUTAAWID at 9/2. Defiance needs to overcome Camelot’s awful 1/44 record (A/E 0.16) at Epsom, meanwhile G Boughey’s 9% SR (A/E 0.43) with fancied runners wearing cheek pieces puts me of Botanical. Rathgar has a number of negatives to overcome; most notable being his owners’ 5% SR (A/E 0.39) on Fridays and Ulysses’ 4% SR (A/E 0.31) with runners carrying up to 8-11 and I struggle to make a case for the remainder. Mutaawid ran well enough on seasonal appearance at Goodwood (5.5l 5th of 11) before demolishing the field at Newmarket, winning by the mere 6l. The son of Frankel has been hiked 10lb up handicap but I don’t think that this is his ceiling given his level of consistency, the Gosden yard are in decent enough form (29% SR, A/E 1.18 over the past fortnight) and J Crowley brings a 21% SR (A/E 1.3) on runners wearing blinkers.

Defiance's last race after a break was a run behind a top-class King Power horse at Epsom. The restart again at Epsom will likely suit and has a fab chance here.

Has form under these race conditions. Placed 3rd last time out from a wide draw at Chester, and previous to that was 2nd in a 10-furlong, class 2 handicap here at Epsom. Knows how to race at the course, although does appear to hit the frame more than win. Nicely weighted for a yard in form, who go well at the course, are all big positives.

Akecheta has run well on her last 3 starts at the Curragh in big field competitive handicaps, looking like she is crying out for this step back up in trip. The softening ground will suit, and she looks very interesting stepping up to 10f.

Distance winner who's turned out again quickly after running only 8 days ago when made favourite for a class 3 over 1m 1f 170yds at Ripon, finishing 2nd of 11, beaten 1 1/2L with rating 91. Runs off the same rating today but interestingly stepped up to a class 2, so has a lot less weight with a change in jockey. Has run well on soft, so easing ground not a worry.

Ashariba is a 4-year-old filly trained by David Menuisier. He runs off a career-high mark of 93, having won 5 out of 8 races, and looks a tad overpriced at 16-1. He won over today's good to soft ground and trip on his last start under today's jockey, Harry Davies, beating Treasure, who has since posted a career-high RPR of 105. So Ashariba could feasibly still be well handicapped. Harry Davies rides this track, winning with his last three rides at Epsom: Tribal Chief 4-1 (today's trainer), Sea Scout 40-1, and City Of Delight 9-4 (today's trainer). Given the progressive nature of Ashariba and the fact he has won in this grade, it suggests a big run is on the cards and potentially listed material.

Previous distance winner. Top jockey Hollie Doyle takes the ride. Plum stall draw in 1, so can have a nice prominent early position. Dropping down the handicap and has a nice mark to work with. Each way chance.

Warda Jamila has decent form at Epsom when placing fourth over today's distance in April. The filly was half a length and a head behind today's opponent Rathgar but is one pound better off with that rival today. Warda Jamila goes well on gradients, having gone close at Goodwood in July. Her joint career best efforts have been on good (at Epsom) and good to soft going. She disappointed last time when beaten favourite at Chester but plenty of horses have disappointed at Chester. Today's course, distance and going should suit.

This will hopefully be front runners to the fore with another race that lacks obvious pace. Ecureuil Secret doesn’t look obviously well handicapped for this assignment, but he’s gone well enough in Group company so far. He stays further than this on deep ground, so the rain is a plus to his chances. If Orr can get to the front from a wide draw, he could prove hard to peg back if he’s allowed to freewheel around Tattenham Corner. He’ll be a hostage to fortune at the start, but the negatives are baked into his price in an open-looking handicap.

Obviously a chancy one at the price, and they are making their seasonal return against several race-fit rivals. But I can't get away from this horse's record over 1m 2f when getting give in the ground. It reads 11121, his only defeat coming when beaten by a horse who is now rated 11lb higher. The ground has come right for him, he is a course and distance winner, and his record fresh is good. In fact, he is 111254 after an absence of 70 or more days since handicapping. Cheekpieces have eked a bit more improvement out of him, and with plenty of pace on, he should hopefully be staying on well at the finish.

The 4yo is on top of his game, three runs this year, going close each time, all on the AW. He was 2nd of 14 last time out, beaten just a nse in a useful £34K handicap, and comes here fresh after a seven week break. Facing some stronger rivals in this handicap but he’s on a nice looking mark. The return to turf might give him a little spark, a couple of decent runs as a youngster in Group company on turf. Not a great draw but is worth an EW shout.

A chance is taken that Flying Finn could outrun her odds. She has shown some promise in her previous runs and could get involved.