8:40 Cartmel Tips

Won a similar hunter chase last time after 16 months off. His wins previously have come after breaks. This 3-month break is a relatively quick turnaround, but hopefully, he can follow up here.

Preference here goes to the Fergal O'Brien trained, Autonomous Cloud. Arrives with a bit to prove given a subpar performance when last seen at Cheltenham in the Hunters Chase. This is a horse that does require some forgiveness given he can be an awkward customer. His jumping can be erratic at times, and that may explain why first-time cheek-pieces were applied last time out. That said, he drops back into much calmer waters here off a tempting weight with Mr O'Dwyer claiming 7lb. Stepping back up to a more staying trip should suit better. There could be some negatives to find with the favorite, given the age and the lofty weight carry. He returns after an 86-day break, so sharpness is not assured. At the prices, I would rather take a chance on the O'Brien runner that should fare better over these conditions.

The model I run suggests Great Notions can win this one. This result has been driven by Great Notions having a relatively high RPR compared to some of the other runners, and a reasonable weight to carry. All horses go out carrying within 4 lbs of each other in terms of initial weight around this 3m 1f track. Great Notions comes here in exceptional form with figures of 3132-1 and looks to add another win to his name here as he progresses. Youngest of the field by quite a bit, so looks to progress again with Mr. Dawson picking up the reins. The model has issued a 'low' reading indicator which translates to a 0.75pt stake on a scale of 0-4.

Point winner last time and well treated on novice form. Prolific in form under the right conditions and a consistent runner. Each way bet at this price is too good to turn down, big threat.

Shantou Moon jumps well and is a consistent sort. Up against it in this, but if the others do not perform to the top of their game, then he has a chance. Long odds and a small each way.