7:10 Cartmel Tips

Evenwood Sonofagun was course and distance winner just 2 days ago and escapes a penalty with the 7lb claimer. He won comfortably over this exact course, trip, ground, suggesting he's in the zone. Lightly raced in this sphere with more to come.

In and out and mostly very disappointing. I think you should give Golden Maverick a chance here to overturn the favorite, who doesn't fill me with confidence.

The model I run suggests The Jeweller's Pet can win this one. The Jeweller's Pet lines up here with the joint highest RPR of this 10-runner field but has the second lowest official ranking. This subsequently means The Jeweller's Pet goes out carrying less weight than the majority of runners here. Ala Doyle on board relieves a further 5 lbs, which helps over this 2m 6f trip. The model has indicated a 'very low' stake reading, which is largely driven by the small win probability % gap back to second place in the race simulation.

He is yet to run at this track but has good form at similar tracks including Hexham and Kelso. He is just 4lbs higher than his win at Musselburgh 3 starts ago and should still be able to make his presence felt.

Achnamara is a dual purpose gelding who's been in good form over hurdles this year but disappointed on his return to the flat. 2 wins from last 3 hurdle runs shows he's in decent form over timber and the latest hurdle win came in a competitive handicap at Catterick, where he saw the trip out well. The unseat at Kelso was just unfortunate, so you can forgive that error. Still fairly treated on some of his better jumps form and handles good to soft ground. EW or win chance here.