6:10 Cartmel Tips

The model I run suggests Belle of Annandale can cause an upset here. Belle of Annandale lines up with by far the highest RPR of this 10-runner field. Looks well treated in the official ranking and subsequently goes out carrying a lower weight than the market front runners. Belle of Annandale typically settles in mid-division, which might suit the tight course here at Cartmel. This race today also represents a drop in class. The model has issued a 'very low' staking indicator, which translates to a 0.5pt bet on a scale of to 4. This is a result of the small gap back to second place in terms of win probability % in the race simulation.

If Chillhi can jump a bit better, then he has every chance here. He's in good heart following a flat run recently, and this will be just his 6th hurdle start. Twice he has shown he can win in this sphere in those runs when 3rd in July last year and only beaten 6 lengths at Newcastle in October. A clear round should see him make the frame at least.

There are many in with chances here, but Top Of The Bay catches the eye, ignoring his most recent below-par run, as he won his penultimate at the course.

Mr Sundancer is a modest hurdler who finally got his head in front at Downpatrick last summer and now looks to be slowly finding form again. Winner over hurdles last year with the hood back on now, and the stable switch to a new yard (left Shark Hanlon) and latest run at Sedgefield was a step back in the right direction, finishing 4th after a break. Can go well if building on that comeback effort, especially now race-fit again.

Vocal Duke is a 9-year-old gelding trained by James Moffatt. He is a four-time winner and a CD winner on today's good to soft ground off 111. He runs today off 80 with conditional Leah Noreci's 10lb claim, and it should put him in the mix in this selling handicap, having posted a career-high RPR of 115.