4:40 Ascot Tips

This unexposed horse was a very good 5th in a big handicap last time out when arguably disadvantaged by the draw. By contrast, his high draw should be a positive here on soft ground and he's also bred to appreciate this first attempt on soft ground, as many progeny of Too Darn Hot are better when the ground is on the easy side. That effort last time out can also be upgraded since he was a bit keen and if learning to settle better, looks the one they all have to beat.

In his racing career, Ebts Guard has won four races, with two of them coming over today's course and distance. The first of those was in October last year on soft going. His latest win here was his last race on good to firm, where he finished well to win by half a length. His last race saw him win off a career-high mark of ninety-eight. Today he runs off a mark of one hundred, so he will need a career-best performance. However, running at a track he appears to like and ground which has seen him win in the past, Ebts Guard should give another good account of himself.

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He’s been on the drift slightly this morning but that makes BALMACARA an appealing each way price at 15/2 here (5 places). High Degree carries a poor FlatStats rating and his owner’s 22% SR (A/E 0.59) with favourites on soft puts him up against it, meanwhile C Grassick’s 10% SR (A/E 0.44) with fancied runners on Fridays makes Ebt’s Guard hard to back. Advertise’s 5% SR (A/E 0.47) at southern courses is damning for Shout and Accentuate will do well to overcome Sea The Moon’s 11% SR (A/E 0.44) with fancied runners on triangle-shaped courses. Balmacara gave a decent enough display at Sandown LTO, finishing 3.75l 3rd of 5 when racing too freely. That came in a small field but he’ll be able to get plenty of cover today (17 runners), he’s shown he appreciates cut in the ground, E Johnson Houghton brings a 30% SR (A/E 1.32) with fancied runners in September and New Bay holds a deluge of positive fancied stats; most notable being a 38% SR (A/E 1.41) in September and 30% SR (A/E 1.73) at Ascot.

Handed a stiff-looking mark on handicap debut last time, having won well the time before. Disappointed and needs to improve. Drops a couple of pounds and this ground may well help as dam won on heavy ground on her debut.

Witch Hunter is the most interesting runner in this mile handicap. He hasn't been running particularly well this season, however he hasn't met with the soft ground he thrives on so far. That changes in this race as the rain has given Ascot a fair dowsing during the week. He was a very good third in the Balmoral Handicap on Champions Day last backend, off a 12 pound higher mark. That gives him a strong each way shout here. A fast pace to aim at would also be a huge bonus.

Very hard to win from the front here anyway, 24th out of 25 in the country. However, in this, there's 5 who like to go forward. Pace collapse is almost inevitable. Four of those five appear to be making up the front end of the market, so it's a race worth having a punt into because everything else must be overpriced. Greys Monument has been sitting back over the last few races, is drawn near enough to the pace here that he should not be left behind, and on his third run could be coming to form. Won here at this meeting last year off 105 on Soft; that was over 7f, and he actually made all that day, so can be marked up. Followed that up with a Listed win, then appears to have lost form since. Had excuses on first run of the season at Haydock in May when on Good ground 0/4, and then started to return to life at Newcastle last time out when 8th behind Native Warrior off 107. Weakened there after being outpaced, and return to 1m should suit. Worth a chance in a market that appears all wrong.

Thunder Roar, a 6-year-old chestnut gelding by Night of Thunder, is trained by Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood and will be ridden by Tom Eaves in the 16:40 Ascot Iron Stand Membership Handicap, racing off an official rating of 94. He returns from a mid-season break, his latest outing a distant 10th at Newcastle, where he couldn't get competitive in a 7f Class 3 sprint on AW. That run can be overlooked as an outlier??'his true best has been shown on turf and over a mile. In late 2024, he landed a win at Redcar and a close second at Doncaster, showing he handles soft going and this trip well. This is a red hot handicap but if thunder Roar gets a revival from the soft ground I cant see why he cant be in the mix at the finish. He raced 4 times in October last year all on soft ground in competitive sprints and placed in 3 and won 1, pretty impressive in 1 month so he definitely has the capability.

In a wide-open handicap, a chance is taken on Bopedro. He has not won for over two years but has hit the frame in competitive races. He has a neutral draw in stall eight and will not mind the soft ground conditions. One to consider for the frame.

It has been 15 races since his last victory in 2022, yet he comes into this race in excellent form, finishing 3rd in a handicap at Thirsk 34 days ago. He is once again in contention, making an each-way bet at 22/1 a worthwhile option.

Mr. Swivell was in cracking form up until his last run for his new yard this year. K De Foy had a long shot winner 2 days ago. Why not another? Mr. Swivell is drawn on the side where the action is most likely to develop, and this prominent racer can stick around there for places at least.

Talis Evolvere has gone without a win so far this season, resulting in the horse being six pounds lower than his last winning mark. He has some form on the Ascot straight mile with a keeping on third placing in April. His career best effort came on the straight mile at Newbury in a big field. Talis Evolvere was unplaced on his only outing on heavy ground but, in his two races on good to soft, he has a record of 13, the third placing being his career best. Tyrese Cameron regains the ride. This jockey was placed on the only other occasion he has partnered Talis Evolvere and that was over today's course and distance. His seven pounds allowance can come in useful on this straight track.

Distance winner who's been given a refreshing 43-day break after finishing a lowly 11th of 13. But he weakened 1f out of 1m 2f 23yds after not having much room 2f out with a rating of 98. Ran in a Listed race and a Group 3 in only two runs in 2024 with ratings of 112 and 109. Down to a more suitable 1m today with rating now down to 94. Hopefully well drawn low in stall 2.

Unexposed at the trip, but has shaped like further would suit. Clearly handles some dig in the ground, in particular with a couple of decent runs on heavy in class 1 company. The latter of those was 3rd in a group 3 behind now 103 and 106 rated horses, so some progress off a mark of 98 is feasible. His pedigree doesn’t scream this distance, albeit his dam is a sister to a horse that has produced winners over a mile 2. His best efforts as a 2yo came on his 4th and 5th start of the season, so with this being his 4th, hopefully he’s coming to the boil. It’s his first run against elders, so he’ll feel the benefit of a 5lb weight for age as well. Drawn alongside a pace angle, hopefully that can give him something to aim at.

Gelded son of Bated Breath & High Drama ( Dam's sire High Chaparral ) who was last seen at York 15 days ago where finishing 9th/17 and shaped better than that bare result suggests in a race where he would of preferred a stronger gallop and a good analysis of this class 2 handicap clearly shows La Trinidad will have his favoured gallop at his disposal given the horses enrolled to run here and La Trinidad does well in these big field scenarios and posseses very good potential at the age of 8 currently operating on a very handy mark of 94 Roger Fell's inmate looks poised to strike here with jockey Hollie Doyle taking the ride worth noting he is now operating 2lb below his last winning mark worth the E/W shout with some firms offering more than 4 places in this race if you shop around very well capable of playing a huge role in the class 2 handicap over the business end and must be taken seriously and accordingly