CalFergie Horse Racing Tips

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My first tip of Royal Ascot 2025 and NAP of Day 1 comes in the form of ROSALLION at 9/4. Lead Artist beat my pick in the Lockinge but had the benefit of a run already this season and will do well to overcome C Keane’s 5% SR (A/E 0.42) on runners carrying 8-13 to 9-3 here, meanwhile Notable Speech finished a short head behind Rosallion that day and didn’t really have any excuses. Dancing Gemini is getting a jockey downgrade from R Moore and Camelot’s awful 4% SR (A/E 0.36) at Ascot tempers enthusiasm further. I struggle to make a case for the remainder so the jolly could just win by default as well as on merit in the Queen Anne; he won the St James’s Palace here last year and you’d expect him to be primed for this. The son of Blue Point is a multiple Gr1 winner, will appreciate the quick ground, has a top jockey booking in S Levey and plenty of positive stats to boot; most notable being his owner’s 52% SR (A/E 1.31) with favourites in June and BP’s 5/9 record (A/E 1.69) with favs over a mile.

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I think ROCK ON THUNDER is overpriced at 11/1 with 4 places on offer. Gstaad has to shoulder his owner’s 13% SR (A/E 0.46) with runners on their first start in the UK and Starspangledbanner’s 19% SR (A/E 0.58) with favourites in June, meanwhile H Al Jehani’s 1/16 record (A/E 0.19) with fancied runners in summer adds little confidence for Postmodern. I did like the look of Military Code (so will probably win) but ROT could hold any amount of improvement from his 1.25l debut win at Leicester and looks a more appealing price. The 3rd that day has gone on to win a C2 novice event at Chester and the 5th a C3 maiden at York so the form looks to be stacking up nicely and Night Of Thunder’s 23% SR (A/E 1.38) with 2yo’s in June is another reason for optimism.

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The top + blue FlatStats rated MGHEERA should go off shorter than the 10/1 on offer currently (4 places). I’m respecting of Asfoora in her bid to retain her crown, however she’s got a bit to prove after a deflating 7th of 14 in a fillies and mares Gr1 in Australia last month. Believing was last seen winning a Gr1 in Meydan and gave two solid accounts here at the royal meeting last year however G Boughey holds a poor 4% SR (A/E 0.45) at Ascot and Mehmas a 7% SR (A/E 0.35) with fancied 5yo’s. Wathnan don’t do well with 4yo’s which puts the newly acquired Night Raider up against it so an each way play looks the way forward; Mgheera is in search of a hattrick after Gr3 and Gr2 wins at Llongchamp and Haydock respectively with both coming on her first two starts for E Walker. I don’t think the mare will be too inconvenienced by the quick ground and she’s got a top jockey booking in W Buick with his 36% SR (A/E 1.69) on fancied runners over 5f at Ascot. Walker’s 36% SR (A/E 1.86) with fancied runners in Group races provides further confidence.

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Reaching High can be opposed here given his poor FlatStats rating plus W Mullins’ 13% SR (A/E 0.37) with favourites in 4yo+ races on turf in the UK. East India Dock has to be taken seriously but J Owen’s 1/20 record (A/E 0.2) with fancied runners in June and The Gredley’s 7% SR (A/E 0.32) with fancied runners in Summer puts me off their charge. Bottom weight and stablemate to RH PONIROS makes appeal at 11/2; the son of Golden Horn sprung the surprise of all surprises when winning the Triumph at Cheltenham with an SP of 100/1 and backed that up a 2nd place in a Grade 1 hurdle at Punchestown NTO. He hasn't’ been seen since and the extreme trip is a question mark but he has plenty of stamina in his pedigree, W Buick brings a 39% SR (A/E 1.29) on fancied runners wearing the hood, A Bloom a 46% SR (A/E 1.86) with fancied long-distance runners and 34% SR (A/E 1.82) with fancied runners in C1-3 races so there’s plenty to be confident about.

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I cannot get my head around AMBIENTE FRIENDLY being 16/1 here (4 places). Yes the 2024 Derby runner-up has failed to live up to expectations, but this is a drop into listed company after going off joint favourite on his last two starts at Gr3 and Gr2 respectively. The jockey has failed to settle him on both starts this term after a switch to the J Owen yard in the winter so I’m hoping that connections have finally unpicked his headstrong nature and the big field will mean that he can get plenty of cover. R Havlin renews acquaintances which is a positive given 2 of his 3 rides on him has proven fruitful including that Epsom Derby and 1.25l 3rd in the Irish Derby. Owen is a master at giving horses a small break of 29 to 56 days (23% SR, A/E 1.73) and his 24% SR (A/E 1.48) on good ground is another string to their bow.