5:30 Punchestown Tips

Brosna Queen is a full sister to the very useful Queens Gamble, and she showed a lot of promise at the Punchestown Festival 6 weeks ago, finishing a never nearer 5th in what is usually a very good bumper. Queens Gamble prefers good ground, so the ground should be fine, and she has the assistance this time of Patrick Mullins in the saddle.

The model I run suggests Kabylia can win this one. Lines up here with the highest RPR of the 13-runner field and is not penalized for it in the weights. We have a split initial amount of weight being carried with half the field carrying 11-11 and the other half 11-4. I don't think this is enough difference to make up for the lack of experience where it appears to be the lower weight is for horses who haven't run before. Experience matters more than the weight difference in this scenario, and Kabylia can build on the good recent form figures of 751-2, where that second only came 26 days ago. The model has issued a 'low' stake indicator which translates to a 0.75pt bet on a scale of 0-4.

Amboyna is lightly raced but reliable, placing in sole attempt at this trip. Proven on similar ground, she has potential under a capable amateur in a competitive field.

QUIZZINI represents a shrewd Irish operation and this mare makes her career debut with a family boasting bundles of stamina. That clearly reads well and the yard often punt their runners if they have one ready. The post-time market can help us.

Ran well on 2nd start over hurdles Lto @ Thurles in a maiden hurdle, so interesting why connections are reverting to this sphere of racing, where trainer is 1/2 last 5 seasons, making current 50/1 worth Ew consideration in the race.