Do most NBA games go over or under?

Updated: 3140 Basketball

In this NBA betting systems blog, we are going to focus on the totals markets, this is the total number of points scored in the game to see if we can find any betting angles to work with.

Do most NBA games go over or under?
Andy Powell Content Editor

Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.

What is the NBA Totals market?

There are three main markets in the NBA, one of those is the totals market which we are going to be concentrating on within this blog to see if we can find any betting strategies we can use throughout the season.

For each game, the sportsbooks will set a line and then give you two options, will the total number of points in the game be under or over that set line we will be looking at if there are circumstances that produce more under or over.

Because the sportsbooks are looking to get as close to the actual total as possible, you will find that the under and over are priced up with the same odds a lot of the time, usually, the odds will be -110.

Do total points wagers include overtime? Be sure to check the T&Cs of your sportsbook but the majority of them will include any points scored in overtime as part of the wager.

Do most NBA games go over or under?

The answer to Do most NBA games go over or under? is not clear cut, however, by the smallest of margins over the last five seasons, the over just about edges it.

From a total of 5,829 games played over the last five seasons, 61 have been pushed and then 2,837 have been under and 2,931 have been over, that is just a 94-game difference over five seasons.

There was just a 9-game difference in the 2021-22 season and then just a 2-game difference in 2020-21 which seems to indicate the sportsbooks are getting the lines right.

Top Under NBA Teams

Out of the thirty NBA teams, there is not a single team that shows a profit both home and away for wagering on the under in their games over the past five seasons.

At home, six teams would have returned a profit when wagering on the under, three of those are of interest with decent profits.

Charlotte Hornets top the list with a profit of $241 and then GSW and the LA Lakers are close with the Warriors showing $181.90 and the Lakers $181.00.

On the road, there is only one team worth mentioning and that is OKC Thunder who on the road have seen 55.15% of their games go under for a profit of $123.70.

Top Under NBA Teams

  • $241.00 - Hornets (Home Only)
  • $181.90 - Warriors (Home Only)
  • $181.00 - Lakers (Home Only)
  • $123.70 - Thunder (Road Only)

Top Over NBA Teams

Only four of the thirty NBA teams show a profit both at home and on the road when wagering on the over in the total points market in games involving them over the last five seasons.

The Atlanta Hawks are the most consistent team in the NBA for wagering on over, overall they have seen 54.81% of their games go over for a profit of $190.10, which is $94.60 at home and $95.50 on the road which are good numbers and the exact type of statistic that the best NBA handicappers look for when making their NBA picks.

If concentrating on home matches only then it is the Washington Wizards who top the list as they show a profit of $190.10 along with a 56.92% strike rate.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are the team to focus on when it comes to games on the road, with 58.12% of their games going over, they show a profit of $210.10.

Top Over NBA Teams

  • $210.10 - Timberwolves (Road Only)
  • $190.10 - Hawks (Overall)
  • $190.10 - Wizards (Home Only)
  • $178.30 - Heat (Overall)
  • $171.00 - Thunder (Home Only)

Which NBA teams score the most?

When it comes to game averages, there are only just over thirteen points ranging from the lowest to the highest which is not a large amount, games involving the Heat are the lowest at 215.48 whilst games involving the Timberwolves have the most with 232.67.

The Bucks are the highest-scoring team over the last five seasons with an average of 116.50 points per game, the next best are the Timberwolves with their average of 114.83, and then the Nets (113.98), Pelicans (112.93), Kings (112.89) ad Jazz (112.76).

On the other end, three teams average under 107 points per game, the worst of those is the Cavaliers who average just 105.72 and the other two are the Magic (105.85) and the Pistons (106.33).

Other NBA Reads

If you are an NBA fan then you may be interested in these other blogs we have after you have finished reading this one.

*Statistics only include regular season games, the home team is the official team listed as hosting, and closing lines are used in the figures for seasons from 2018-19 to 2022-23, with theoretical odds of -110 for both under/over and all profits are shown to $10 wagers.

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