I've spent over 20 years inside the betting industry. I'll guide you to avoid the hype, ignore the noise, and steer clear of the common pitfalls that catch out everyday punters.
- 89% Confidence from bookmakers that a vote of no confidence will be triggered
- Betting Sites have odds for the PM to go in 2022 down to just 1/5
- Massive jump for Rishi Sunak as next Prime Minister as bookies shorten his price to 5/4
- A vote of no confidence doesn't mean he will be removed, however.
As news of letter of voting of no confidence for the Tory Party Leader and Prime Minister filter through, bookmakers have reacted sharply in light of bets coming in on various political betting markets
Chances of a vote of no confidence being triggered (54 letters required to trigger) have shifted from just 59% a few days ago to a huge 89% percent. In betting terms, that's a near certainty.
Odds of Vote of No Confidence Triggered
|
|
Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.12 | 89.29% |
| No | 6.4 | 15.62 |
Year of Departure Odds Crash
There has long been a market for which year Boris will cease to be PM, and for a long time, despite all the troubles over the last 2 years, the favored options with political betting fans were not until the next election, or at least until 2024.
In light of the news this morning, things have changed quickly and bookmakers odds are just 1/5 (1.20 in decimal terms) that Boris will leave his post before the end of 2022.
Boris Johnson Exit Date Betting Odds
| Date |
|
|
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1.20 | 83.33% |
| 2023 | 7.6 | 13.16% |
| 2024 or later | 7.0 | 14.29% |
Is Rishi Ready?
We only recently did a small piece on The Next Conservative leader betting, and also the Odds on the Next prime Minister
Well, here we are on Wednesday morning looking at the odds on both of these markets change considerably.
Should the Vote of No Confidence be triggered and Boris leave his position as Prime Minister then both of these markets immediately become the same,
So let's take a look at the betting this morning.
Next Leader of the Conservative Party Betting Odds
| Candidate | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Rishi Sunak | 2.4 | 41.67% |
| Liz Truss | 6.0 | 16.67% |
| Jeremy Hunt | 8.0 | 12.50% |
| Tom Tugendhat | 14.0 | 6.25% |
