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- Can Xue and László Krasznahorkai are joint 10/1 favourites with Ladbrokes to win the 2025 Nobel Prize in Literature.
- Haruki Murakami (14/1) remains a perennial contender but continues to be overlooked
- The shortlist of likely frontrunners includes Cristina Rivera Garza, Enrique Vila-Matas, and Gerald Murnane at 16/1.
A Prize of Global Prestige
The Nobel Prize in Literature remains one of the most prestigious and closely followed cultural awards in the world and betting sites continue to offer odds on the award.
Founded in accordance with Alfred Nobel’s will, the prize has been awarded annually since 1901 (with rare exceptions during global conflicts) and honours a writer who has, in the words of the Nobel Committee, “produced in the field of literature the most outstanding work in an ideal direction.”
Betting markets have grown steadily in popularity in recent years, as readers, critics, and gamblers try to anticipate where the Nobel Committee's focus will fall each autumn.
For 2025, Ladbrokes have released their latest odds, with six major contenders topping the list.
The field is diverse, spanning continents, languages, and literary traditions.
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Nobel Literature Odds 2025
Here are the latest prices from Ladbrokes on the Nobel Prize in Literature 2025:
| Author | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Can Xue | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| László Krasznahorkai | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| Haruki Murakami | 14/1 | 6.7% |
| Cristina Rivera Garza | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| Enrique Vila-Matas | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| Gerald Murnane | 16/1 | 5.9% |
While no overwhelming favourite has yet emerged, the pricing suggests bookmakers see Can Xue and Krasznahorkai as the likeliest winners.
The Leading Contenders
Can Xue has long been mentioned as a leading contender.
Known for her avant-garde style and surreal narratives, Xue challenges conventional storytelling, often weaving philosophical themes through fractured, dreamlike prose.
Her body of work includes The Last Lover, which won the Best Translated Book Award in 2015.
László Krasznahorkai, often described as a “writer’s writer,” is another frontrunner.
Krasznahorkai is known for dense, flowing prose and philosophical depth, particularly in works like Satantango and The Melancholy of Resistance.
He has previously won the International Booker Prize, which many see as a precursor to Nobel recognition.
Betting Insights and Historical Context
One of the most intriguing aspects of Nobel betting is the disconnect between bookmakers’ favourites and actual winners.
Last year’s winner, Jon Fosse (2024), had odds ranging from 12/1 to 16/1 before his name was announced.
Abdulrazak Gurnah (2021) was priced as high as 40/1 before his surprise win.
This pattern shows that while Can Xue and Krasznahorkai are favourites, punters should not overlook outsiders like Rivera Garza or Vila-Matas.
Nobel Peace Prize 2025 Betting Odds: Donald Trump Remains Favourite Ahead of Navalnaya
Where to Bet on the Nobel Prize in Literature
Special markets like the Nobel Prize in Literature are now offered by leading UK betting sites, making it easier than ever for punters to take part.
Ladbrokes are leading the way in this market, with Can Xue and Krasznahorkai joint favourites at 10/1.
New customers can also take advantage of Ladbrokes’ welcome bonus:
18+. New UK & ROI customers only . Certain deposit methods & bet types excl . Min first £10 win or E/W bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 & get 4 x £10 free bets . Free bets valid for 7 days, stake not returned. No cashout, restrictions + T&C apply.
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