I break betting odds news as it happens, so you’re never left behind when the market moves or a top offer lands.
- Donald Trump now 6/4 favourite for Nobel Peace Prize with William Hill
- Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms shorten to 5/2 second favourite
- Betting sites see growing interest in political markets ahead of award
The Nobel Peace Prize betting market has taken a dramatic turn, with Donald Trump moving into 6/4 favourite with bookmakers following his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu earlier this week.
Trump unveiled a 20-point Gaza peace plan, which called for an immediate end to fighting, the safe return of Israeli hostages, and the creation of an international “Board of Peace” to oversee governance in Gaza.
That announcement has sparked a surge of betting interest, with Trump now clear favourite to win the prestigious award he has long coveted.
William Hill's latest odds now give a 40% implied probability that Trump wins the prize this year with Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms following just behind.
Nobel Peace Prize 2025 – Latest Odds
| Candidate / Organisation | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump Sr | 6/4 | 40.0% |
| Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms | 5/2 | 28.6% |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 7/2 | 22.2% |
| UNRWA / Philippe Lazzarini | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 9/1 | 10.0% |
| Alexei Gorinov | 14/1 | 6.7% |
Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms Rise in Market
Away from Trump’s headlines, Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms have seen their odds shorten to 5/2.
The community-led grassroots groups have played a vital role in providing humanitarian relief amid Sudan’s ongoing conflict, earning widespread international recognition.
The work of these networks has not gone unnoticed by bookmakers, with their price cut from longer odds into genuine contender territory for this year’s award.
Top 10 Political Betting Websites in the UK
Other Contenders in the Frame
Yulia Navalnaya (7/2), the widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, remains strongly backed as a symbol of resistance and democracy.
Meanwhile, UNRWA head Philippe Lazzarini (7/1) is also in contention, representing the humanitarian efforts of the UN’s relief agency in Gaza.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (9/1) and Russian political prisoner Alexei Gorinov (14/1) are also listed among the favourites, though their prices suggest they remain outsiders compared with Trump and Sudan’s grassroots organisations.
What the expert says...
What Happens Next?
The Nobel Committee is set to announce the 2025 Peace Prize winner in October.
Between now and then, global political developments and humanitarian efforts could significantly impact the market.
For now, Trump’s Gaza peace initiative has given him momentum, but Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms remain strong challengers, ensuring this year’s Nobel betting remains wide open.
The official ceremony for the prize takes place on 10 December.
Where To Bet on the Nobel Peace Prize
The Nobel Peace Prize has become one of the most intriguing political betting markets in recent years.
Major UK betting sites like William Hill now price up Nobel categories well in advance, reflecting growing demand among punters.
For those looking to get involved, a wide selection of free bets is available across the best political betting sites, giving new customers the chance to bet on global events with added value.
