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- The 2025 Nobel Prize in Literature will be announced in October, with the ceremony on 10 December 2025.
- Anne Carson, Can Xue, Haruki Murakami, and Mircea Cărtărescu are all joint favourites at 6/1.
- Markets also include Adonis and Gerald Murnane, both at 10/1.
Who Will Win the 2025 Nobel Prize in Literature?
With speculation building toward the October 2025 announcement, the race to win one of the world’s most prestigious literary honours, the Nobel Prize in Literature, is already heating up in the betting markets.
This year’s field is wide open, with four authors tied as early favourites, reflecting just how unpredictable the Swedish Academy’s decision-making can be.
Betting Sites have placed four different authors at 6/1 in the market with a 14.3% probability given to each of winning the award.
| 2024 Nobel Literature Prize Winner | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Anne Carson | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Haruki Murakami | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Can Xue | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Mircea Catarescu | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Gerald Murnane | 10/1 | 9.1% |
What the expert says..
The Favourites: A Closer Look
📚 Anne Carson
The Canadian poet, essayist and translator has long been admired for her genre-defying work. Her growing global readership and consistent literary acclaim make her a perennial name in this market.
📚 Can Xue
A celebrated experimentalist from China, Can Xue’s work blends surrealism with philosophical depth. With the Academy’s recent attention to underrepresented regions, she stands a strong chance.
📚 Haruki Murakami
Perhaps the most speculated name in modern Nobel betting, the Japanese novelist has been shortlisted in spirit for over a decade. Whether 2025 is finally his year remains one of the great annual literary questions.
📚 Mircea Cărtărescu
The Romanian author has been steadily climbing the literary world’s ranks. Known for Solenoid and Blinding, his deeply introspective and ambitious style aligns well with past Nobel choices.
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When Will the Nobel Literature Prize Be Announced?
- Announcement: Expected in early October 2025, live from the Swedish Academy.
- Ceremony: Held on 10 December 2025 in Stockholm, on the anniversary of Alfred Nobel’s death.
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Where to Bet on the Nobel Literature Prize
Markets on the 2025 Nobel Prize in Literature are available now at select betting sites.
These are long-term, low-liquidity markets, often seeing sharp movement after nominations or critic shortlists emerge.
If you’re backing a literary dark horse, make sure to claim the latest free bets and consult our best entertainment betting sites guide.
