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- The Papal Conclave begins Tuesday, May 7, following the death of Pope Francis.
- Pietro Parolin is the 15/8 favourite to become the next Pope, ahead of Luis Antonio Tagle and Peter Turkson.
- Markets now open on Pope’s nationality, papal name, and number of voting rounds.
Pietro Parolin remains clear favourite to be Next Pope
The Papal Conclave to elect the Next Pope has now been confirmed to begin on Tuesday, May 7, and UK Betting Sites have responded by offering a full suite of markets.
Leading the Next Pope odds is Pietro Parolin, the Italian Cardinal Secretary of State, at 15/8 with William Hill.
He’s followed by long-time favourite Luis Antonio Tagle (5/2) and Ghana’s Peter Turkson (5/1), as the College of Cardinals prepares to gather in Vatican City for the historic vote.
Parolin's odds now suggest a 34.8% chance that he becomes the next Pope with his name featuring at the top of the betting for the past month.
| Next Pope Betting | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Pietro Parolin | 15/8 | 34.8% |
| Luis Antonio Tagle | 5/2 | 28.6% |
| Peter Turkson | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Matteo Zuppi | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Pierbattista Pizzaballa | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Robert Sarah | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Peter Erdo | 9/1 | 10.0% |
Odds at William Hill - Correct as of 09:00 on 29th April
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What the expert says...
Nationality of the Next Pope: Could History Be Made?
With the Papal Conclave set to begin on May 7, bookmakers are offering a dedicated market on the nationality of the next Pope.
Currently, the favourite is “A Country That Has Never Had a Pope” at 4/6 (60% implied probability).
This includes candidates from nations such as the Philippines (Tagle), Ghana (Turkson), and Hungary (Erdo) all of whom are serious contenders.
With no African or Asian Pope ever elected, a win from this bracket would be historic.
Italy, meanwhile, remains the most likely individual country at even money (1/1).
With frontrunners like Pietro Parolin and Matteo Zuppi, the Italian bloc remains powerful within the College of Cardinals.
| Nationality of Next Pope | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| A Country That Has Never Had A Pope | 4/6 | 60.0% |
| Italy | 1/1 | 50.0% |
| Germany | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Poland | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Argentina | 25/1 | 3.8% |
Papal Name Betting: Leo & Pius Lead
Both Leo and Pius represent names historically associated with strength and doctrinal authority.
Pius XII (1939–1958), for example, was revered for his intellectual leadership during and after WWII.
A return to ‘Francis’ at 5/1 would suggest continuity with the outgoing pontiff’s reformist and pastoral legacy, especially if Tagle or another Francis-aligned Cardinal is elected.
John and Gregory offer middle-ground choices, balancing tradition with wider recognition.
| Next Pope's Papal Name | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Leo | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| Pius | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| John | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| Gregory | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Francis | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Benedict | 10/1 | 9.1% |
Number of Voting Rounds expected to be at least 5
The Number of Rounds it takes to elect a new Pope is another market now available and the betting indicates it won’t be quick.
Historically, Papal conclaves often extend beyond five rounds unless there’s a clear consensus candidate.
Pope Francis was elected on the fifth ballot in 2013, and modern trends suggest early votes are used to test support and build momentum behind compromise candidates.
| Number of Rounds to Elect the Next Pope | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 Rounds | 1/3 | 75.0% |
| Under 4.5 Rounds | 2/1 | 33.3% |
Where to Bet on the Next Pope
Papal betting markets are live now at William Hill and other leading betting sites.
From frontrunners to fun novelty markets like papal name, there's a wide range of options.
Be sure to check out current free bets if you're betting on this once-in-a-generation religious event.
