I break betting odds news as it happens, so you’re never left behind when the market moves or a top offer lands.
- JD Vance leads the 2028 US Election odds as 9/4 favourite to become the next US President.
- Gavin Newsom follows in the betting at 7/2, with Donald Trump Sr. now 8/1.
- Trump has publicly ruled himself out of running, despite continued speculation and merch drops.
JD Vance Leads 2028 US Presidential Election Odds
The 2028 US Presidential Election may still be two years away, but the betting markets are already heating up and JD Vance has now emerged as the clear frontrunner.
With Donald Trump Sr. officially stepping back from a potential run, the Ohio Senator and current Vice President now tops every major GOP primary poll, and bookmakers have slashed his odds to just 9/4 (26.7% implied chance) to win the White House.
These early odds can offer value, especially as primaries approach and campaign announcements begin.
While odds for the 2028 US Election are still limited on UK betting sites, we expect more widespread markets to open throughout 2026.
Ladbrokes latest market has Vance right at the top but that all could change depending on what happens in the next two years.
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2028 US Presidential Election – Winner Odds
| 2028 US Presidential Election Winner | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 9/4 | 30.8% |
| Gavin Newsom | 7/2 | 22.2% |
| Donald Trump Sr. | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Marco Rubio | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 20/1 | 4.8% |
Trump Bows Out But Trumpism Lives On?
Despite continued merchandising efforts ncluding "Trump 2028" hats still available via the Trump Organization, current President Donald Trump Sr. confirmed in late 2025 that he will not be the Republican nominee for the next cycle.
“It’s not going to be me,” Trump said, bowing to 22nd Amendment term limits, though he remains a powerful influence in the run up to 2028.
That has created a vacuum for Republican hopefuls, and JD Vance, boosted by his role as Vice President and his rising star among grassroots conservatives, has filled it with strategic precision.
Vance’s approval ratings within the Republican base have soared since late 2024, and every GOP primary poll in 2025 has seen him leading by wide margins.
What the expert says...
Gavin Newsom Leads Democrat Betting
On the Democrat side, California Governor Gavin Newsom remains the most likely nominee according to the betting markets.
Sitting at 7/2, Newsom is well positioned in the latest betting market.
While Newsom has denied any official plans to run, his media appearances, state-level initiatives, and increased national profile all suggest a likely campaign announcement.
His firm but polished opposition to Republican policies has seen him emerge as the party’s leading voice for the next generation.
Also in the Democratic betting picture are Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (12/1) and Marco Rubio (12/1). the latter of whom may aim to capitalise on a divided GOP field if Vance stumbles or fails to consolidate Trump’s full backing.
Insider Support and Momentum Behind Vance
Erika Kirk, widow of Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk, recently pledged her support to JD Vance’s assumed 2028 campaign. a key nod from the conservative grassroots wing.
Should Vance formally launch a 2027 campaign, expect his odds to tighten even further as Republican state endorsements begin to fall in line.
"We are going to get my husband's friend, JD Vance, elected for 48 in the most resounding way possible," Kirk declared.
