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- Green Party 1/2 favourites for Gorton and Denton.
- Green Party 1/2 favourites for Gorton and Denton.
- Labour drift to 13/2 after vote share collapse in 2024.
Greens Lead Gorton and Denton By-Election Betting
UK betting sites have priced up the Gorton and Denton by-election, with the Green Party installed as 1/2 favourites ahead of polling day on February 26.
Last month's resignation of Labour MP Andrew Gwynne has triggered the contest in the South Manchester seat, but what might once have been a routine Labour hold has rapidly become a nationally watched political test.
The race dominated headlines when Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham signalled he wished to stand, only to be blocked by Labour’s National Executive Committee which was a decision that has fuelled wider debate about internal party tensions.
With discontent simmering inside the governing party the by-election now carries significance well beyond the constituency boundaries.
Bet365's latest market gives the Green's a 66% implied probability of winning this by-election.
History of the Seat
In 2024, Labour secured 50.8% of the vote, making it one of just 70 seats where the party achieved an outright majority. However, that represented a dramatic fall from an estimated 67.2% in 2019.
The 16.5-point drop ranked among Labour’s ten worst performances in the North West. Nearby seats including Manchester Rusholme, Manchester Central and Manchester Withington also recorded double-digit declines.
Those figures explain why bookmakers have installed the Green Party as clear favourites, implying a 66.7% probability of victory.
Reform UK Positioned as Main Challenger
Reform UK, priced at 12/5, carry an implied probability of 29.4% and are seen as the primary challenger.
With Matt Goodwin standing for Reform, the party will hope to capitalise on dissatisfaction within both Labour’s traditional base and broader anti-establishment voters.
The relatively short odds suggest bookmakers believe Reform could mount a serious challenge particularly if turnout dynamics favour motivated protest voters.
What the expert says...
Full Candidate List
The by-election features a wide and varied field:
- Nick Buckley (Advance UK)
- Charlotte Cadden (Conservative Party)
- Dan Clarke (Libertarian Party)
- Matt Goodwin (Reform UK)
- Sebastian Moore (Social Democratic Party)
- Joseph O’Meachair (Rejoin EU Party)
- Jackie Pearcey (Liberal Democrats)
- Hannah Spencer (Green Party)
- Angeliki Stogia (Labour Party)
- Sir Oink a Lot (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
- Hugo Wils (Communist League)
While minor parties appear at triple-figure odds, the contest is widely viewed as a three-way battle at the top of the market.
Where To Bet on Political Markets
Political betting markets such as the Gorton and Denton by-election are available across major UK betting sites, including bet365.
Check out our list of the Best Political Betting Sites for top bookmakers for these markets.
