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- Donald Trump is now 2/1 favourite to win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize
- UNRWA and Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani follow behind in the market
- Trump recently won the FIFA Peace Prize, boosting his peace credentials
Trump Leads 2026 Nobel Peace Prize Betting Market
Fresh from collecting the inaugural FIFA Peace Prize, Donald Trump has been installed as the 2/1 favourite to win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, according to the latest odds from bookmakers.
Trump has previously expressed his ambition to win the prestigious award and with a growing profile in international diplomacy and recent peace-related accolades, oddsmakers believe 2026 could finally be the year he claims the honour.
The U.S. President is the only individual currently priced shorter than 5/1 in the betting.
It's thought that Trump winning the FIFA Peace Prize could boost his chances of winning the Nobel award.
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2026 Nobel Peace Prize Winner Odds
| 2026 Nobel Peace Prize Winner | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| United Nations Relief & Works Agency for Palestine | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| Greta Thunberg | 25/1 | 3.8% |
| International Court of Justice | 30/1 | 3.2% |
Spotlight on Key Contenders
United Nations Relief & Works Agency for Palestine (UNRWA) - 8/1
A perennial presence in the region’s humanitarian efforts, UNRWA is viewed as a potential winner due to its frontline role in aiding Palestinian refugees amid rising tensions in the Middle East. Any aid success in Gaza would boost its chances dramatically.
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani - 10/1
The Emir of Qatar continues to play a key diplomatic role in the Middle East, including brokering peace talks and securing hostages in multiple international conflicts.
His growing stature in international diplomacy keeps him in serious contention.
Greta Thunberg - 25/1
The climate activist’s continued fight against global inaction on climate change ensures she remains a symbolic figure in peace-related discourse.
While not as politically involved as others, her global movement remains highly influential.
