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- Tom Cruise is the 2/1 favourite for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards for his role in Digger
- John Malkovich is next-best at 3/1 for Wild Horse Nine, with Matt Damon at 6/1 for The Odyssey
- Markets have opened months earlier than usual, and Cruise's Academy history makes the favourite look beatable
Markets Land Early for the 99th Academy Awards
Betting sites have wasted no time pricing up the Best Actor race for the 99th Academy Awards, with markets going live months ahead of next year's ceremony.
Most bookmakers wait until festival season is well underway before opening trade on these awards, so this early move gives punters a rare crack at the field before the usual frontrunners have screened a single frame for critics.
At the top of the tree sits a familiar name. Tom Cruise has been installed as the 2/1 favourite for his performance in Digger, with John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine) the next-best at 3/1.
Matt Damon, Adam Driver, Sebastian Stan, Ryan Gosling and Josh O'Connor round out the seven-runner market, each attached to a film carrying genuine awards-season pedigree
Full Best Actor Odds — 99th Academy Awards
| Best Actor | Film | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Cruise | Digger | 2/1 | 33.33% |
| John Malkovich | Wild Horse Nine | 3/1 | 25.00% |
| Matt Damon | The Odyssey | 6/1 | 14.29% |
| Adam Driver | Paper Tiger | 7/1 | 12.50% |
| Sebastian Stan | Fjord | 9/1 | 10.00% |
| Ryan Gosling | Project Hail Mary | 10/1 | 9.09% |
| Josh O'Connor | Disclosure Day | 14/1 | 6.67% |
Why Cruise Sits at the Top
The 2/1 odds given on Cruise tell you plenty about the narrative the market is buying. Digger has been positioned as the kind of dramatic, character-led role designed to court Academy voters which is a deliberate pivot from the action blockbusters that have defined the back half of his career.
Add in the goodwill banked from his recent honorary Governors Award and the lingering "unfinished business" subplot with the Academy, and it's clear why traders have stuck him out front.
Despite three acting nominations across his career, Cruise has never walked away with the gold statue itself.
The Academy's voting body has, time and again, found a reason to recognise everyone but him.
99th Academy Awards Best Picture Odds: Nolan's The Odyssey 2/1 Favourite As Oscar Race Opens Up
A Closer Look at the Chasing Pack
John Malkovich at 3/1 for Wild Horse Nine is the obvious next stop. He hasn't landed a Best Actor nomination since the late 1980s, and a long-overdue narrative is precisely the fuel Academy campaigns thrive on.
At 25% implied, he's been treated as a serious threat rather than a token second favourite.
Matt Damon (6/1) in The Odyssey carries the prestige of a major literary adaptation, while Adam Driver at 7/1 for Paper Tiger looks like the kind of price that won't survive long if early reviews land cleanly.
Driver is already a two-time nominee, and a 12.5% implied probability leaves room for sharp contraction once the film starts screening.
What the expert says...
Where To Bet on the Best Actor Market
If you're keen to get involved, the best entertainment betting sites tend to lead the way on Oscars markets.
Plenty of bookies are also rolling out free bets and welcome offers, which can take the sting out of a play on the bigger-priced names like Stan, Gosling or O'Connor.
