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- Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERR) are current 3/1 favourites to win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize.
- Donald Trump sits second in the market at 4/1 amid renewed bidding for the honour.
- Humanitarian organisations and high-profile cultural figures feature as intriguing outsiders.
Early Markets Open on 2026 Nobel Peace Prize
UK betting sites have opened the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner market, with early pricing suggesting a strong humanitarian narrative could shape next year’s award.
Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERR) currently head the betting at 3/1 positioning the grassroots civilian aid network as the early frontrunner in what is traditionally one of the most unpredictable political specials markets.
Across betting sites, the Nobel Peace Prize market often reflects global crises and long-term humanitarian impact rather than short-term headlines and this year appears no different.
However, political intrigue remains close behind.
Nobel Peace Prize Betting and Previous Winners
2026 Nobel Peace Prize Winner Odds
| 2026 Nobel Peace Prize Winner | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms | 3/1 | 25.0% |
| Donald Trump | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| Doctors Without Borders (MSF) | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| UNRWA | 15/2 | 11.8% |
| David Attenborough | 9/1 | 10.0% |
| Julian Assange | 9/1 | 10.0% |
Sudan’s ERR carry a 25% implied probability in the early market, with Donald Trump priced at 4/1 implying a 20% chance of finally landing the prestigious award.
Trump’s Nobel Pursuit Back in Focus
Donald Trump remains firmly in the frame at 4/1, having previously been among the favourites in last year’s market without securing the prize.
The former US President has publicly expressed his desire to win the Nobel Peace Prize in the past and his name consistently features in betting markets whenever diplomatic developments arise.
In a recent headline-grabbing moment, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado stated she had given her Nobel Peace Prize medal to Trump during a White House meeting, describing it as recognition of his support for Venezuelan freedom.
However, the Nobel Committee has clarified that prizes cannot be transferred once awarded reinforcing the independence of the selection process.
Despite the controversy, Trump’s presence at 4/1 reflects both political visibility and sustained betting interest.
Cultural and Transparency Figures in the Mix
Further down the betting board, David Attenborough (9/1) and Julian Assange (9/1) represent alternative narratives.
Attenborough’s lifelong environmental advocacy continues to resonate globally, particularly as climate change remains central to geopolitical discussions.
Assange, meanwhile, is positioned as a transparency and press freedom figure, though his candidacy would likely spark significant debate.
At this stage, though, the market is clearly shaped around humanitarian impact versus political prominence.
What the expert says...
Where To Bet on Nobel Peace Prize Markets
The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner market is available across major UK betting sites offering political and novelty specials.
You can also explore broader novelty markets through our guide to the best entertainment betting sites.
