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- Haruki Murakami and Mircea Cărtărescu are joint favourites for the 2025 Nobel Prize in Literature at 6/1.
- Anne Carson, Can Xue, and Gerald Murnane follow closely behind in a tight market.
- The prize will be announced in early October 2025, with the award ceremony on 10 December in Stockholm.
Murakami and Cărtărescu Joint Favourites for 2025 Nobel Prize in Literature
The race for the 2025 Nobel Prize in Literature is heating up, with Japanese novelist Haruki Murakami and Romanian author Mircea Cărtărescu emerging as joint 6/1 favourites with leading betting sites.
As the literary world prepares for the October announcement from the Swedish Academy, the market has shifted notably in recent weeks.
Our last report saw Anne Carson and Can Xue both sit alongside the favourites in the betting market but that has since changed.
Now the latest betting odds see Murakami and Cărtărescu both given a 14.3% chance of winning the prestigious Nobel Prize this year.
| 2025 Nobel Prize in Literature | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Haruki Murakami | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Mircea Cărtărescu | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Anne Carson | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Can Xue | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Gerald Murnane | 10/1 | 9.1% |
What the expert says...
Nobel Betting Field Remains Wide Open
With no runaway leader, this year’s Nobel Prize in Literature looks particularly competitive.
Haruki Murakami remains a popular public and bookmaker favourite, despite having never claimed the honour. His signature blend of magical realism and existential themes has long captured global attention.
Mircea Cărtărescu, often cited by critics as one of Eastern Europe’s literary powerhouses, has grown in prominence over the past few years and has constantly been a figure in this betting market.
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Where to Bet on the Nobel Prize
The Nobel Prize in Literature market is available at top bookmakers.
Punters looking to back their literary favourites can do so through the best entertainment betting sites, many of which provide generous free bets during Nobel season.
