I've spent over 20 years inside the betting industry. I'll guide you to avoid the hype, ignore the noise, and steer clear of the common pitfalls that catch out everyday punters.
- 20/1 for New Tory and Labour leaders in 2022 with one bookmaker
- Boris 5/1 to leave Apr-Jun 2022 or 1/2 for 2023 or later
- Kier Starmer only 5% chance of departure in 2022 with betting sites
- Rishi Sunak 5/2 Favourite for Next Conservative Leader
- Andy Burnham 7/2 Favourite as Next Labour Leader
- Key Local Elections Betting
One of the biggest growth areas of online betting in the UK is political betting and in recent years interest has grown with so much activity and big events taking place.
To that end, one bookmaker has gone out on a limb in predicting the possibility that both major parties will have a change of leadership with Boris Johnson and Kier Starmer both being replaced as Conservative Party leader and Labour party leaders in 2022 respectively offering odds of 20/1
2022 Political Betting Odds
| Market | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| New Leaders for Tory and Labour Parties | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| Boris Johnson to Leave | 2/1 | 33.33% |
| Kier Starmer to Leave | 16/1 | 5.88% |
| Conservative Control in Barnet | 1/1 | 50% |
| Labour Control in Croydon | 2/5 | 71.43% |
| Lib Dem Control in Sutton | 2/5 | 71.43% |
| Labour Control in Wandsworth | 4/7 | 63.64% |
| Conservative Control in Westminster | 2/5 | 71.43% |
There is plainly a greater chance of Boris Johnson leaving in 2022 with bookmakers rating his chance as high as 33% against just 5% for Kier Starmer but with local elections coming up, we have seen the potential volatility in the betting markets with what happened in the North Shropshire local elections before Christmas.
The Tories were way ahead on the betting, short odds on to win and with one week to go, the price crashed on the Liberal Democrats who went on to win.
Nothing is certain politics and anything can happen.
To that end, we will be watching many of the major seats around the country in the run-up to the elections in May.
As you can see in the table above betting has begun in earnest in some areas, With the Liberal Democrats 2/5 favourites to replicate the North Shropshire result and win in Sutton.
Westminster is favourite for a Conservative win and Wandsworth for Labour, whilst it's 50/50 in Barnet between the Tories and Labour.
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