I've spent over 20 years inside the betting industry. I'll guide you to avoid the hype, ignore the noise, and steer clear of the common pitfalls that catch out everyday punters.
- Jeremy Hunt's Odds of being Next Tory leader drop to just 7/1 with betting sites and 8/1 for Next PM
- Betting Odds of 12/1 were on offer in December for the Chair of the Health and Social Care Select Committee
- Liz Truss drifting to 5/1 on Betting Exchanges but still form at 4's elsewhere
- Renewed Support for Rishi Sunak in the last 24 hours - Back to 7/4 and 36% chance for the favourite
- Michael Gove is as low as 5/1 in places, but 12/1 with some bookies
In light of recent events, there has been understandable betting interest in the market for the next leader of the Conservative party and the main benefactor when it comes to bets being placed and money staked seems to be on Jeremy Hunt with similar shortening in the Next Prime Minister markets.
Prior to the new year, Liz Truss had been the one for money with betting sites, but whilst her price of replacing Boris Johnson has eased a little, Jeremy hunt was available at double-figure odds and as big as 12/1 in December, a price that is long gone as it dropped to 7/1 in recent days.
Next Conservative Party Leader after Boris Johnson.
| Candidate | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Rishi Sunak | 7/4 | 36.36% |
| Liss Truss | 3/1 | 25.0% |
| Jeremy Hunt | 6/1 | 14.29% |
| Michael Gove | 7/1 | 12.50% |
| Sajid Javid | 14/1 | 6.25% |
Rishi Sunak had also seen his price drift out a little following support for Truss and Hunt, but there has been some late rallying in that respect in the last 24 hours and he remains the 7/4 favorite for the position, representing a 36% chance in probability terms.
Whilst some betting firms will attest to having seen big bets placed for Michael Gove who whilst is generally available to bet at double-figure odds is as short as 5/1 and 6/1 with some bookmakers in the Next Tory Party leader betting
Next Prime Minister Betting
| Candidate | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Rishi Sunak | 7/4 | 36.36% |
| Liz Truss | 6/1 | 14.29% |
| Kier Starmer | 15/2 | 11.76% |
| Jeremy Hunt | 8/1 | 11.11% |
| Tom Tugendhat | 18/1 | 5.26% |
| Micheal Gove | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| Dominic Raab | 20/1 | 4.76% |
**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 17/01/2022
Boris Exit Date
There has been a lot of chatter about when Boris might go given the recent events over restrictions breaches, parties and all manner of other uncomfortable situations.
There has been betting throughout 2021, as to whether Bojo will last the year in his position. Barring some shock news in the next couple of weeks it looks like he has seen those bets off, but now has a full year to survive bets on him exiting the PM role in 2022.
Odds were just 11/10 that Boris will be gone in 2022, those odds have shortened now to odds on 1/2 which is reflected in the betting on the Next prime Minister too. Rishi Sunak and Kier Starmer currently fighting out the race in that market.
Boris Johnson Exit Date Betting Odds
| Exit Date |
|
|
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1/1 | 66% |
| 2023 | 7/1 | 11.11% |
| 2024 or later | 11/4 | 26.67% |
Next General Election
Betting on the next general election throws up another swathe of markets to consider, as to what date, and if Boris will still be PM at the time.
Currently, despite the next general election on schedule for 2025 as is normal, and short odds to leave in 2022, Boris Johnson is odds on, with a better than 50% chance at 10/11 to be the head of the Conservatives when the Election comes around.
Will Boris Johnson be the Conservative Party leader at the next UK General Election?
| Will he? | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.90 (10/11) | 52.38% |
| No | 2.10 (11/10) | 47.62% |
