I've spent over 20 years inside the betting industry. I'll guide you to avoid the hype, ignore the noise, and steer clear of the common pitfalls that catch out everyday punters.
- Liberal Democrats were 9/1 last month with bookmakers - Price has crashed to close to evens
- Conservative chances are sliding from just 1/5 last month to 4/5 with betting sites
- And overnight the Probability for the Conservative has dropped further from 65% to just 54% with bookies
When the North Shropshire by-election was announced you would have had to bet £50 to win just £10 if placing a bet at the bookmakers - To win the same amount just one week from the polls opening you would only have to bet £12
Such has been the lack of confidence in Neil Shastri-Hurst winning the seat next week.
In contrast, the Liberal Democrats who only gained just 10% of the vote in the last by Election in the ward, have gone from 10/1 outsiders last month, and behind Labour to have a serious chance of gaining the seat and their betting odds on winning have crumbled to just 6/5, increasing their probability from some 10% to 45%.
Even last night Conservatives were 64% likely to win, only to see that has dropped to 55% by Wednesday morning on Smarkets betting exchange where betting on the North Shropshire By-Election has been reaching fever pitch this week.
North Shropshire By-Election Betting Odds
| Party | Candidate | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | Neil Shastri-Hurst | 1.80 (4/5) | 55.56% |
| Lib Democrats | Helen Morgan | 2.20 (6/5) | 45.45% |
| Independent | Suzie Akers Smith | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Independent | Yolande Kenward | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Labour | Ben Wood | 100/1 | 0.99% |
**Odds probability include bookmakers overround edge - meaning percentages will add up to over 100%, this being the bookies edge - How bookmakers use odds
There has been an ever diminishing feeling of confidence about the Conservatives in the former stronghold of North Shropshire with former claims that you could put a Blue Rosette on a Bale of Hay and it would have won more votes in the past.
Do not discount the flippancy, The conservatives have held the area for some 196 of the last 200 years if that gives you some idea of how Owen Paterson was able to amble in for a phot every four years and never be seen again.
The wind of change is coming though and it is gathering pace with the Liberal Democrats closing in as far as the bookmakers are concerned.
It was much to the delight of Helen Morgan that Boris Johnson has made a trip and been out on the canvass trail. That effort being viewed as Tory jitters about losing such a strong seat.
