I break betting odds news as it happens, so you’re never left behind when the market moves or a top offer lands.
- Jason Burke (6/4) favourite to win 2025 Baillie Gifford Prize for Non-Fiction
- Helen Garner (3/1) and Justin Marozzi (4/1) follow in the betting
- Winner to receive £50,000 prize for the year’s best English-language non-fiction
Jason Burke Favourite To Win 27th Baillie Gifford Prize
The race for one of the world’s most prestigious non-fiction honours is on, with Jason Burke emerging as the 6/4 favourite to win the 2025 Baillie Gifford Prize for his acclaimed work The Revolutionists: The Story of the Extremists Who Hijacked the 1970s.
Now in its 27th year, the Baillie Gifford Prize (formerly the Samuel Johnson Prize) celebrates the best in global non-fiction written in English, spanning current affairs, history, politics, science, travel, biography, and culture.
The £50,000 award has a reputation for elevating authors to international acclaim, with previous winners including Katherine Rundell, Craig Brown, and David France.
This year's winner will be announced on November 4.
2025 Baillie Gifford Prize Winner Odds
| 2025 Baillie Gifford Prize Winner | Title | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Burke | The Revolutionists | 6/4 | 40.0% |
| Helen Garner | How To End a Story | 3/1 | 25.0% |
| Justin Marozzi | Captives and Companions | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| Richard Holmes | The Boundless Deep | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Adam Weymouth | Lone Wolf | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Frances Wilson | Electric Spark | 7/1 | 12.5% |
Spotlight on the Favourites
Jason Burke – The Revolutionists (6/4)
A leading foreign correspondent for The Guardian, Jason Burke tops the betting for The Revolutionists, which explores the political and cultural upheaval of the 1970s and how global extremism reshaped modern society. Critics have praised the book for its depth and clarity, which is a hallmark of Baillie Gifford-winning works.
Helen Garner – How To End a Story (3/1)
Australian literary icon Helen Garner sits second in the market with her powerful diary collection How To End a Story, chronicling the breakdown of her marriage and the complexities of creative life. Garner has long been a favourite among critics for her introspective, candid style.
Justin Marozzi – Captives and Companions (4/1)
Historian Justin Marozzi is third favourite with Captives and Companions, a sweeping study of slavery and the slave trade in the Islamic world. His meticulous research and human storytelling have earned widespread acclaim and make him a major contender.
About the Prize
Founded in 1999, the Baillie Gifford Prize for Non-Fiction was created to celebrate “the best true stories.”
It is open to writers of any nationality whose work is published in English in the UK, with a panel of judges drawn from across literature, journalism, and the arts.
This year’s judging panel includes Robbie Mille, Rachel Lloyd and Pratinav Anil.
What the expert says...
Where To Bet on Book Awards
For those looking to wager on the Baillie Gifford Prize, Booker Prize, and Nobel Literature Prize, leading bookmakers offer the latest markets on major literary awards.
You can explore these and more on the best entertainment betting sites.
